Keywords

Africa; population pressure and land resources; environmental degradation; productivity; natural resources; sustainable development

Abstarct

The nexus between population growth and the demand for agricultural land in the different regions of Africa is examined. Given present trends, the demand for agricultural land may increase by about 75% in 2025 and by more than threefold when Africa's population stabilizes after 2100. A comparison is made between the past demand for agricultural land and the decrease in forest area. In most regions of Africa, there is a close correlation between these two factors. Therefore, without active intervention, the future enlarged agricultural estate will be at the expense of high forests and woodlands. By the time the population stabilizes, Africa could lose half its forests. At present, there is a surplus of wood compared to demand, and this surplus could be used to expand rural opportunities. However, in nearly every country there are pockets of shortages. These pockets will expand if little is done to improve agricultural and silvicultural productivity. Ways of improving productivity are discussed, especially with farm trees; this will release the pressure on forest areas. Also, strategies for meeting demand in wood deficit areas are specified. Land-use change targets are given based on various productivity assumptions and increased food intakes. If the forecasted gains are made, coupled with the expanded use of renewable resources, then the demand for extra farmland may increase by only one-third by 2025 and by one-half when the population stabilizes.