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16 - Prediction and Projection

from Flows of Energy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 February 2022

Kevin E. Trenberth
Affiliation:
National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Summary

Earth’s energy imbalance is associated with the forcings of the climate system and how it responds, including all of the feedbacks. EEI is actually the net outcome, but climate models facilitate the understanding of the actual flows of energy through the climate system and in turn are a key step toward estimating the consequences. Hence, climate models are extensively used to encapsulate the knowledge and understanding of the climate system and how it works, and for making projections of the future. However, as noted in Chapter 1, the models are not perfect and involve approximations and assumptions. The IPCC approach has been very democratic in that all models have been treated equally even though some models have been shown to contain substantial errors. It makes sense to use only the models that perform well. Of course, all models contain errors, but some models actually violate physical principles, such as conservation of mass or energy, and these should not be used. Certainly, some models are a lot better than others.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2022

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References

References and Further Reading

Hausfather, Z., 2018: Explainer: How ‘Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ explore future climate change. www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change.Google Scholar
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013: Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis, ed. Stocker, T. F., et al. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
O’Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., et al., 2016: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geoscience Model Development, 9, 34613482. doi: 10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016.Google Scholar
Trenberth, K. E., ed., 1992: Climate System Modeling. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 788pp.Google Scholar
Trenberth, K. E., 2015: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: North, G. R. (ed.-in-chief), Pyle, J., and Zhang, F., eds., Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, 2nd ed., vol. 2. London: Academic Press, 90–94.Google Scholar
USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Vol. I, edited by Wuebbles, D. J., Fahey, D. W., Hibbard, K. A., et al. Washington, DC: US Global Change Research Program, 470pp. https://science2017.globalchange.gov/.Google Scholar
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., et al., 2011: The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change, 109,5 5–31. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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