Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-9q27g Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-17T11:54:54.389Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Chapter 11 - Information Sampling in Contingency Learning

Sampling Strategies and Their Consequences for (Pseudo-)Contingency Inferences

from Part III - Consequences of Selective Sampling

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 2023

Klaus Fiedler
Affiliation:
Universität Heidelberg
Peter Juslin
Affiliation:
Uppsala Universitet, Sweden
Jerker Denrell
Affiliation:
University of Warwick
Get access

Summary

Perception of statistical relations often deviates from mathematically correct values: individuals infer a statistical relation when there is none, find a relationship that has the opposite sign of the genuine contingency, or ignore relevant third variables in the observed sample. Contingency assessment is based on sampling and integration of information, whether sampled from memory or from the environment. Information sampling in turn may depend on various factors, including the valence of events observed, direct consequences of sampling a piece of information, the amount of information given per sample, or prior knowledge and beliefs. Whenever individuals sample information, such factors come into play and may lead to asymmetries in the available information. For instance, more positive events than negative events might be observed, more instances of one alternative as compared with another, more information about the ingroup than the outgroup, and so on. Such asymmetries or skewed frequencies might provide the basis for pseudocontingency inferences. According to the pseudocontingency heuristic, contingencies are inferred on the basis of observed marginal frequencies: When observing skewed marginal frequencies of two variables (e.g., option A more frequently than option B and gains more often than losses), individuals relate the frequent observations per variable with each other (e.g., option A and gains) as well as the infrequent observations (e.g., option B and losses). In this chapter, we review empirical evidence on the influence of information sampling on the inference of genuine and pseudocontingencies. We provide some answers to the following questions: Which information is sampled? When do reasoners use marginal frequencies in order to form a judgment and thereby infer a pseudocontingency? May information sampling foster genuine contingency assessment? And what part do expectations or prior beliefs play?

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2023

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bays, P. M., Wu, E. Y., & Husain, M. (2011). Storage and binding of object features in visual working memory. Neuropsychologia, 49(6), 16221631.Google Scholar
Biele, G., Erev, I., & Ert, E. (2009). Learning, risk attitude and hot stoves in restless bandit problems. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 53(3), 155167. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2008.05.006Google Scholar
Bott, F. M., Heck, D. W., & Meiser, T. (2020). Parameter validation in hierarchical MPT models by functional dissociation with continuous covariates: An application to contingency inference. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 98, 102388.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2020.102388CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bott, F. M., Kellen, D., & Klauer, K. C. (2021). Normative accounts of illusory correlations. Psychological Review, 128(5), 856878. https://doi.org/10.1037/rev0000273Google Scholar
Bott, F. M., & Meiser, T. (2020). Pseudocontingency inference and choice: The role of information sampling. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 46(9), 16241644. https://doi.org/10.1037/xlm0000840Google ScholarPubMed
Bott, F. M., & Meiser, T. (in prep.). How information sampling strategies may counteract the persistence of initial beliefs about contingencies [Manuscript in preparation]. Department of Psychology, University of Mannheim.Google Scholar
Cheng, P. W., & Novick, L. R. (1990). A probabilistic contrast model of causal induction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 58(4), 545567.Google Scholar
Denrell, J., & Le Mens, G. (2011). Seeking positive experiences can produce illusory correlations. Cognition, 119(3), 313324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2011.01.007Google Scholar
Denrell, J., & March, J. G. (2001). Adaptation as information restriction: The hot stove effect. Organization Science, 12(5), 523538. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.12.5.523.10092Google Scholar
Doherty, M. E., Mynatt, C. R., Tweney, R. D., & Schiavo, M. D. (1979). Pseudodiagnosticity. Acta Psychologica, 43(2), 111121. https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-6918(79)90017-9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duncan, O. D., & Davis, B. (1953). An alternative to ecological correlation. American Sociological Review, 18(6), 665666.Google Scholar
Eder, A. B., Fiedler, K., & Hamm-Eder, S. (2011). Illusory correlations revisited: The role of pseudocontingencies and working-memory capacity. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 64(3), 517532. https://doi.org/10.1080/17470218.2010.509917CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fiedler, K. (2010). Pseudocontingencies can override genuine contingencies between multiple cues. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 17(4), 504509. https://doi.org/10.3758/PBR.17.4.504CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fiedler, K., & Freytag, P. (2004). Pseudocontingencies. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 87(4), 453467. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.87.4.453Google Scholar
Fiedler, K., Freytag, P., & Meiser, T. (2009). Pseudocontingencies: An integrative account of an intriguing cognitive illusion. Psychological Review, 116(1), 187206. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0014480Google Scholar
Fiedler, K., Freytag, P., & Unkelbach, C. (2007). Pseudocontingencies in a simulated classroom. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92(4), 665677. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022–3514.92.4.665CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiedler, K., Kutzner, F., & Vogel, T. (2013). Pseudocontingencies: Logically unwarranted but smart inferences. Current Directions in Psychological Science 2013, 22(4), 324329. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721413480171Google Scholar
Fiedler, K., Russer, S., & Gramm, K. (1993). Illusory correlations and memory performance. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 29, 111136. https://doi.org/10.1006/jesp.1993.1006Google Scholar
Fleig, H., Meiser, T., Ettlin, F., & Rummel, J. (2017). Statistical numeracy as a moderator of (pseudo)contingency effects on decision behavior. Acta Psychologica, 174, 6879. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actpsy.2017.01.002Google Scholar
Gaissmaier, W., & Schooler, L. J. (2008). The smart potential behind probability matching. Cognition, 109(3), 416422. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2008.09.007CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hamilton, D. L., & Gifford, R. K. (1976). Illusory correlation in interpersonal perception: A cognitive basis of stereotypic judgments. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 12(4), 392407. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1031(76)80006-6Google Scholar
Harris, C., Fiedler, K., Marien, H., & Custers, R. (2020). Biased preferences through exploitation: How initial biases are consolidated in reward-rich environments. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 149(10), 18551877. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000754CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hau, R., Pleskac, T. J., Kiefer, J., & Hertwig, R. (2008). The description–experience gap in risky choice: The role of sample size and experienced probabilities. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 21(5), 493518. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.598CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E. U., & Erev, I. (2004). Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events in risky choice. Psychological Science, 15(8), 534539. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0956-7976.2004.00715.xCrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hoffman, L. (2015). Longitudinal analysis: Modeling within-person fluctuation and change. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Hütter, M., & Niese, Z. A. (2023). Sampling as preparedness in evaluative learning. In Fiedler, K., Juslin, P., & Denrell, J. (Eds.), Sampling in judgment and decision making (pp. 131152). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Jeffreys, H. (1939). Theory of probability (1st ed.). Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
Jekel, M., Glöckner, A., & Bröder, A. (2018). A new and unique prediction for cue-search in a parallel-constraint satisfaction network model: The attraction search effect. Psychological Review, 125(5), 744768. https://doi.org/10.1037/rev0000107CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3(3), 430454. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(72)90016-3Google Scholar
Kareev, Y., & Fiedler, K. (2006). Nonproportional sampling and the amplification of correlations. Psychological Science, 17(8), 715720. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01771.xGoogle Scholar
Klauer, K. C. (2015). Mathematical modeling. In Gawronski, B. & Bodenhausen, G. V. (Eds.), Theory and explanation in social psychology (pp. 371389). New York: Guilford Press.Google Scholar
Kutzner, F., & Fiedler, K. (2017). Stereotypes as pseudocontingencies. European Review of Social Psychology, 28(1), 149. https://doi.org/10.1080/10463283.2016.1260238Google Scholar
Kutzner, F., Vogel, T., Freytag, P., & Fiedler, K. (2011). Contingency inferences driven by base rates: Valid by sampling. Judgment and Decision Making, 6(3), 211221.Google Scholar
Le Mens, G., Kareev, Y., & Avrahami, J. (2016). The evaluative advantage of novel alternatives: An information-sampling account. Psychological Science, 27(2), 161168. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797615615581CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lejarraga, T., & Hertwig, R. (2017). How the threat of losses makes people explore more than the promise of gains. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 24(3), 708720. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423–016-1158-7Google Scholar
Meiser, T., & Hewstone, M. (2004). Cognitive processes in stereotype formation: The role of correct contingency learning for biased group judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 87(5), 599614. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.87.5.599Google Scholar
Meiser, T., & Hewstone, M. (2006). Illusory and spurious correlations: Distinct phenomena or joint outcomes of exemplar-based category learning? European Journal of Social Psychology, 36(3), 315336. https://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.304Google Scholar
Meiser, T., & Hewstone, M. (2010). Contingency learning and stereotype formation: Illusory and spurious correlations revisited. European Review of Social Psychology, 21(1), 285331. https://doi.org/10.1080/10463283.2010.543308Google Scholar
Meiser, T., Rummel, J., & Fleig, H. (2018). Pseudocontingencies and choice behavior in probabilistic environments with context-dependent outcomes. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 44(1), 5067. https://doi.org/10.1037/xlm0000432Google Scholar
Newell, B. R., Rakow, T., Weston, N. J., & Shanks, D. R. (2004). Search strategies in decision making: The success of “success.” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 17(2), 117137. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.465Google Scholar
Pavlov, I. P. (1927). Conditioned reflexes: An investigation of the physiological activity of the cerebral cortex (trans. Anrep, G. V.). Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Prager, J., Krueger, J. I., & Fiedler, K. (2018). Towards a deeper understanding of impression formation: New insights gained from a cognitive-ecological perspective. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 115(3), 379397. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000123Google Scholar
Rescorla, R. A., & Wagner, A. R. (1972). A theory of Pavlovian conditioning: Variations in the effectiveness of reinforcement and nonreinforcement. In Black, A. H. & Prokasy, W. F. (Eds.), Classical conditioning ii: Current research and theory (pp. 6499). New York: Appelton-Century-Crofts.Google Scholar
Scharf, S. E., Wiegelmann, M., & Bröder, A. (2019). Information search in everyday decisions: The generalizability of the attraction search effect. Judgment and Decision Making, 14(4), 488512.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shanks, D. R. (2007). Associationism and cognition: Human contingency learning at 25. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 60(3), 291309. https://doi.org/10.1080/17470210601000581Google Scholar
Simpson, E. H. (1951). The interpretation of interaction in contingency tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 13(2), 238241.Google Scholar
Snijders, T. A. B., & Bosker, R. J. (2012). Multilevel analysis: An introduction to basic and advanced multilevel modeling. London: Sage.Google Scholar
Thorndike, E. L. (1931). Human learning: The messenger lectures, Cornell University, fifth series, 1928–29. Century.Google Scholar
Treisman, A. (1998). Feature binding, attention and object perception. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 353(1373), 12951306.Google Scholar
Vogel, T., Freytag, P., Kutzner, F., & Fiedler, K. (2013). Pseudocontingencies derived from categorically organized memory representations. Memory & Cognition, 41(8), 11851199. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13421–013-0331-8Google Scholar
Waldmann, M. R., & Hagmayer, Y. (2001). Estimating causal strength: The role of structural knowledge and processing effort. Cognition, 82(1), 2758. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0010–0277(01)00141-XGoogle Scholar
Wheeler, M. E., & Treisman, A. M. (2002). Binding in short-term visual memory. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 131(1), 4864.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×