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Youth unemployment in Italy and Russia: Aggregate trends and individual determinants

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2023

Enrico Marelli  and
Elena Vakulenko
Enrico Marelli*
Affiliation:
University of Brescia, Italy
Elena Vakulenko
Affiliation:
National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russia
*
Enrico Marelli, Department of Economics and Management, University of Brescia, Via San Faustino 74/b, Brescia 25122, Italy. Email: enrico.marelli@unibs.it
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Abstract

Youth unemployment rates in most countries are considerably higher than total unemployment rates and increased significantly in many countries following the global financial crisis. Young people in long-term unemployment risk becoming a ‘lost generation’. We investigate individual and family characteristics predicting young people’s vulnerability to the scarring effects of long-term unemployment. After overviewing aggregate youth unemployment trends in several European countries, we focus on Russia and Italy – countries with contrasting structural and institutional conditions and exhibiting different macroeconomic trends – in order to determine whether, despite these differences, there were similar patterns in the relationship between individual and family characteristics and the of risk of unemployment and its adverse impacts. We use a Heckman probit model to estimate the unemployment risk of young people – compared to adults – during the period 2004–2011, before and after the global financial crisis. Despite many differences between the two countries, most of the explanatory variables acted in the same direction in each and so we compare the relative size of such effects. The policy significance of the findings is that personal and family characteristics are more amenable to modification than macroeconomic variables. Specific school-to-work interventions are needed to avoid creating a ‘lost generation’.

Keywords

Global financial crisisHeckman probitindividual determinants of unemploymentItalylong-term unemploymentregional unemploymentRussiaschool to work transitionyouth unemploymentJ64E24R11P51
Type
Rethinking Precariousness and Flexibility
Information
The Economic and Labour Relations Review , Volume 27 , Issue 3 , September 2016 , pp. 387 - 405
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2016

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