Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-sjtt6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-26T21:50:23.624Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Beyond the illusion of numbers: A challenge for financial regulators and analysts

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2023

Carol Royal*
Affiliation:
School of Management and Industrial Relations Research Centre, Australian School of Business, The University of New South Wales, Australia
Loretta O’Donnell
Affiliation:
School of Management and Industrial Relations Research Centre, Australian School of Business, The University of New South Wales, Australia
*
Carol Royal, Honorary Visiting Fellow, Cass Business School, City University London, UK, and School of Management and Industrial Relations Research Centre, Australian School of Business, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2062, Australia. Email: c.royal@unsw.edu.au

Abstract

Global financial crises and potential sovereign defaults provide an opportunity for financial regulators and analysts to revise assumptions in their risk models. These conditions are also an opportunity for regulators and analysts to distinguish the ‘hyper-real’ economy, represented by derivatives, from the real economy, which requires assessment through an analysis of human as well as financial capital. Regulators are required to demonstrate that they are skilled in conducting the most thorough analysis of all elements of the finance system in order to help the investing public to manage risk as much as possible. The contribution of this article is to overview the limitations inherent in regulators’ traditional focus on financial analysis, as well as in financial analysts’ failure to consider the relevance of people management data when evaluating the potential performance of knowledge-intensive, service-based organisations. The article argues for a stronger focus on analysis of non-financial capital, including human capital, to provide a more effective ‘early warning’ of potential financial distress.

Type
Non-Symposium Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2013

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ackoff, RL (1999) Re-Creating the Corporation: A Design of Organizations for the 21st Century. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Ackroyd, S (2004) Methodology for management and organisation studies. In: Fleetwood, S, Ackroyd, S (eds) Critical Realist Applications in Organisation and Management Studies. London: Routledge, pp. 137162.Google Scholar
Aiken, C, Keller, S (2009) The irrational side of change management. The McKinsey Quarterly 2, April: 101109.Google Scholar
Akerlof, GA, Shiller, RJ (2009) Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why it Matters for Global Capitalism. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Alderman, , Craig, (2011) Europe’s Banks Lost a Refuge In Debt Crisis. The New York Times 11 November, A1. Available at: http://search.proquest.com/docview/903151952/141431B876B45A9BF90/729?accountid=12763 (accessed 22 October 2013).Google Scholar
Arthur, WB (1994) Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy, Economics, Cognition and Society Series. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Arthur, WB (2009) The Nature of Technology: What it is and How it Evolves. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) Corporate Governance Council (2010) The Corporate Governance Principles and Recommendations with 2010 amendments. 2nd ed. Sydney, NSW: ASX Corporate Governance Council.Google Scholar
Bargeron, LL, Lehn, K, Zutter, CJ (2010) Sarbanes-Oxley and corporate risk-taking. Journal of Accounting and Economics 49(1–2): 3452.Google Scholar
Barney, JB (1991) Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage. Journal of Management 17(1): 99120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baron, A, Armstrong, M (2007) Human Capital Management: Achieving Added Value Through People. London: Kogan Page.Google Scholar
Bassi, L, McMurrer, D (2007) Maximising your returns on people. Harvard Business Review, March. Available at: http://www.smhc-cpre.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/hbr-article3.pdf (accessed 20 July 2013).Google Scholar
Bassi, LJ, Lev, B, Low, J, et al. (2001) Measuring corporate investments in human capital. In: Blair, MM, Kochan, TA (eds) The New Relationship: Human Capital in the American Corporation. New York: Brookings Institute, pp. 334382.Google Scholar
Benmelech, E, Dlugosz, J (2009) The credit rating crisis. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 24(1): 161208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boudreau, JW, Ramstad, PM (2007) Beyond HR: The New Science of Human Capital. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Publishing.Google Scholar
Boxall, P, Purcell, J (2003) Strategy and Human Resource Management. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Bray, M (2010) The Journey to Better Business Reporting: Moving Beyond Financial Reporting to Improve Investment Decision Making. Australia: KPMG.Google Scholar
Cabral, R (2012) A perspective on symptoms and causes of the financial crisis. Journal of Financial Economics 104(3): 452468.Google Scholar
Cantor, PA (1994) Hyperinflation and hyper-reality: Thomas Mann in light of Austrian economics. The Review of Austrian Economics 1(7): 329.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chowdhury, A, Islam, I (2012) The debate on expansionary fiscal consolidation: how robust is the evidence. Economic and Labour Relations Review 23(3): 1338.Google Scholar
CK Capital (2012) Trends in sustainability disclosure: benchmarking the world’s composite stock exchanges. A paper prepared for the sustainable stock exchanges 2012 global dialogue, UNCTAD, CK Capital, Commissioned by Aviva Investors. 29 June 2012. CK Capital.Google Scholar
Creswell, JW (1994) Research Design: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE.Google Scholar
Crotty, J (2009) Structural causes of the global financial crisis: a critical assessment of the ‘New Financial Architecture’. Cambridge Journal of Economics 33(4): 563580.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daneshgar, F, Royal, C, O’Donnell, L (2005) Representation of human capital knowledge in investment processes. Investment Management and Financial Innovations 2: 158163.Google Scholar
Derman, E (2011) Models. Behaving. Badly: Why Confusing Illusion with Reality Can Lead to Disaster, on Wall Street and in Life. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Di Maggio, PJ, Powell, WW (1983) The iron cage revisited: institutional isomorphism and collective rationality in organizational fields. American Sociological Review 48(2): 147160.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Engelen, E, Ertürk, I, Froud, J, et al. (2012) Misrule of experts? The financial crisis as elite debacle. Economy and Society 41(3): 360382.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fast, NJ, Gruenfeld, DH, Sivanathan, N, et al. (2009) Illusory control: a generative force behind power’s far-reaching effects. Psychological Science 20: 502508.Google ScholarPubMed
Fraser, J, Simkins, B (eds) (2010) Enterprise Risk Management: Today’s Leading Research and Best Practices for Tomorrow’s Executives. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Gabor, A (2010) Knowledge review: seeing your company as a system. Strategy+Business 59 Summer. Reprint Number 10210. Available at: http://www.strategy-business.com/media/file/sb59_10210.pdf (accessed 22 October 2013).Google Scholar
Geithner, T (2009) Interview with Timothy Geithner, ‘For the love of money’, BBC September 18. Available at: http://www.tradeitdontdateit.com/bbc-the-love-of-money-episode-1-the-bank-that-bust-the-world/ (accessed 2 July 2013).Google Scholar
Goedhart, MH, Raj, R, Saxena, A (2010) Equity analysts: still too bullish. McKinsey on Finance, Spring, issue 35, pp. 1418.Google Scholar
Graaf, J (2013) Colouring the numbers – on the role of intellectual capital in financial reporting. Journal of Intellectual Capital 14(3): 376394.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Graafland, J, van de Ven, BW (2011) The credit crisis and the moral responsibility of professionals in finance. Journal of Business Ethics 103(4): 605619.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Graham, B, Dodd, DL, Tatham, SC (1962) Security Analysis: Principles and Techniques. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Harvey, C (2001) International cost of capital and risk calculator. Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, working paper. Available at: http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Working_Papers/W35_The_international_cost.pdf (accessed 17 May 2010).Google Scholar
Herzig, C, Moon, J (2013) Discourses on corporate social ir/responsibility in the financial sector. Journal of Business Research 66(10): 18701880.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Isern, J, Meany, MC, Wilson, S (2009) Voices on transformation 3: corporate transformation under pressure. McKinsey Quarterly, April, pp. 714.Google Scholar
Johnson, HT, Broms, A (2000) Profit Beyond Measure: Extraordinary Results through Attention to Work and People. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Jones, E (2006) Faith and credit: the deregulation of the finance sector has us all drowning in debt. Arena Magazine 82 , May–June, pp. 2123.Google Scholar
Kerr, S (1975) On the folly of rewarding A, while hoping for B. The Academy of Management Journal 18(4): 769783.Google ScholarPubMed
Khandani, AE, Lo, AW, Merton, RC (2013) Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect. Journal of Finance Economics 108(1): 2945.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, M (2009) Interview with Mervyn King, Governor, Bank of England, ‘For the love of money’, BBC September 18 . Available at: http://www.tradeitdontdateit.com/bbc-the-love-of-money-episode-1-the-bank-that-bust-the-world/ (accessed 2 July 2013).Google Scholar
Leão, P (2013) The effect of government spending on the debt-to-GDP ratio: some Keynesian arithmetic. Metroeconomica 64(3): 448465.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Li, DX (2000) On default correlation: a copula function approach. Journal of Fixed Income 9(4): 4354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mackenzie, D, Spears, T (2012) The formula that killed Wall Street? The Gaussian copula and the material cultures of modelling. School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh. Available at: http://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/data/assets/pdf_file/0003/84243/Gaussian14.pdf (accessed 1 August 2013).Google Scholar
Mayo, A (2001) The Human Value of the Enterprise: Valuing People as Assets – Monitoring, Measuring, Managing. Naperville, IL: Nicholas Brealey.Google Scholar
Molloy, JC, Chadwick, C, Ployhart, R, et al. (2011) Making intangibles ‘tangible’ in tests of resource-based theory: a multidisciplinary construct validation approach. Journal of Management 37(5): 14961518.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadauld, TD, Sherlund, SM (2013) The impact of securitization on subprime credit. Journal of Financial Economics 107(2): 454476.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadauld, TD, Weisbach, MS (2012) Did securitization affect the cost of corporate debt? Journal of Financial Economics 105(2): 332352.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
New York Times (2012) Tracking Europe’s debt crisis. New York Times, 19 December. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/global/european-debt-crisis-tracker.html (accessed 31 December 2012).Google Scholar
Nielsen, C, Bukh, PN, Mouritsen, J, et al. (2006) Intellectual capital statements on their way to the stock exchange: analyzing new reporting systems. Journal of Intellectual Capital 7(2): 221240.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O’Donnell, L, Royal, C (2012) Investment and sustainability: The importance of the ‘S’ in ESG principles of responsible investment. In: Jones, G (ed.) Research Handbook in Sustainability. Melbourne, VIC: Tilde/Palgrave, pp. 133151.Google Scholar
Pike, S, Roos, G (2004) Mathematics and modern business management. Journal of Intellectual Capital 5(2): 243256.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pol, E (2012) The predominant cause of the USA banking crisis, 2007–2008. Journal of Socio-Economics 41(5): 519528.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reinhart, CM, Rogoff, KS (2008) This time is different: A panoramic view of eight centuries of financial crises. Working paper 13882, March. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reinhart, CM, Rogoff, KS (2010) Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review 100(2): 573578.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Royal, C, O’Donnell, L (2008) Emerging human capital analytics for investment processes. Journal of Intellectual Capital 9(3): 367379.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Salmon, F (2009) Recipe for disaster: The formula that killed Wall Street. Wired, 23 February. Available at: http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant?currentPage=all (accessed 30 March 2009).Google Scholar
Senge, P (1990) The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. New York: Doubleday/Currency.Google Scholar
Shaw, GB (1894) The World (1894/1973) Music in London 1890-1894 being Criticisms Contributed Week by Week to The World. 18 July. New York: Vienna House.Google Scholar
Shin, HS (2009) Reflections on Northern Rock: the bank run that heralded the global financial crisis. Journal of Economic Perspectives 23(1): 101119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sorkin, AR (2009) Too Big to Fail: The Inside Story of How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System and Themselves. New York: Penguin.Google Scholar
Standards Australia (2013). Available at: http://www.cpaaustralia.com.au/cps/rde/xchg/cpa-site/hs.xsl/members-handbook-risk.html (accessed 28 December 2012).Google Scholar
Sveiby, K-E (1997) The New Organizational Wealth: Managing and Measuring Intangible Assets. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler.Google Scholar
Taleb, M (2007) The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Tett, G (2009) Fool’s Gold: How Unrestrained Greed Corrupted a Dream, Shattered Global Markets and Unleashed a Catastrophe. London: Little, Brown Books Group.Google Scholar
Triana, P (2009) Lecturing Birds on Flying: Can Mathematical Theories Destroy the Financial Markets? Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Ulrich, D (1999) Measuring human resources: an overview of practice and a prescription for results. In: Schuler, RS, Jackson, SE (eds) Strategic Human Resource Management. Oxford: Blackwell Business, pp. 462482.Google Scholar
United Nations Principles for Responsible Investing (UNPRI) (2010) United Nations principles for responsible investing. Available at: http://www.unpri.org/about-pri/the-six-principles/ (accessed 3 March 2010).Google Scholar
Wardrop, J (2012) When is institutional change not change? Australian corporate governance reporting practices as institutional maintenance work. PhD Thesis, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW.Google Scholar
Watson Wyatt Worldwide Research (2002) Human Capital Index: Linking Human Capital and Shareholder Value. Washington, DC: Watson Wyatt Worldwide Research.Google Scholar
Webb, AP (2009) Management lessons from the financial crisis: a conversation with Lowell Bryan and Richard Rumeldt. The McKinsey Quarterly, June, pp. 15. Available at: https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/PDFDownload.aspx?ar=2363 (accessed 17 May 2010).Google Scholar