Claims that forest cutting during the last few decades has contributed significantly to the buildup in atmospheric CO2 have cast doubt on the validity of models used to estimate CO2 uptake by the ocean. In this paper we review the existing models and conclude that the box-diffusion model of Oeschger and his co-workers provides an excellent fit to the average distributions of natural and bomb-produced radiocarbon. We also take the first steps toward a more detailed ocean model which takes into account upwelling in the equatorial zone and deep water formation in the polar zone. The model is calibrated using the distribution of bomb-produced and cosmic ray-produced radiocarbon in the ocean. Preliminary calculations indicate that the fossil fuel CO2 uptake by this model will be greater than that by the box-diffusion model of Oeschger and others (1975) but not great enough to accommodate a significant decline in the mass of the terrestrial biosphere over the past two decades.

The program called Geochemical Ocean Section Study (GEOSECS) was initiated in 1971 and designed to make an oceanic inventory of chemical constituents in the world oceans, partly as a baseline study for future chemical changes, and partly to investigate large-scale oceanic transport and mixing processes. Measured were hydrographic parameters (salinity, temperature, and oxygen vs depth), the carbonate system, the nutrients, and assorted other constituents with heavy emphasis laid on the radioactive substances, radiocarbon, tritium, and radon.

The distribution of 14C concentrations in the dissolved inorganic carbon in the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean is shown to have a primarily latitudinal pattern with Δ14C maxima at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres and a minimum at the equator. Oceanographic causes of this phenomenon are discussed.

Problems of the statistical interpretation of radiocarbon age measurements of old samples are discussed, based on the notion of fiducial probability distribution. A probability density function of age has been given. A detailed discussion of different facets of the probability distribution of age has led us to the confirmation of the use of 2σ as the best limiting value between the regions of finite and infinite dates. It has been proposed to make use of the principle of constant probability P = 0.68 in the regions of both finite and infinite ages instead of the criterion N + kσ.

In the preceding paper (Stuiver and Östlund, this issue), some of the general features of the Geochemical Ocean Section Study (GEOSECS) were outlined and results were listed for the Atlantic Ocean. This paper will deal with the second major cruise, which was described by Craig and Turekian (1976), covering the Pacific Ocean in 1973-74 (cf fig 1).

The characteristics of a one-dimensional vertical advection-diffusion ocean mixing model were examined using temperature, salinity, and bomb 14C measurements made during the GEOSECS program. Vertical advection (W) and eddy diffusion (K) rates for the main oceanic thermocline and CO2 gas exchange rates (E) were determined from the depth distributions of salinity and bomb produced 14C measured in the upper 1000m of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In the Atlantic, the results suggest that vertical diffusion rates are lower in the equatorial region (K = 0.6cm2sec—1) than in the temperate region (K = 1.6cm2sec—1). Upwelling rates were calculated for stations located between about 30° N and 30°S and average 10m yr—1, corresponding to an upward transport of about 10 Sverdrups. Model calculations of the gas exchange rate of CO2 indicate a 2 to 3-fold decrease between temperate latitudes and the equatorial latitudes of the Atlantic. For many of the Pacific GEOSECS stations, the Δ14C depth distribution is distinctly different than in the Atlantic, and cannot be used to calculate unique values of K and W that explain both the salinity and 14C depth distributions.

The radiocarbon dates covered in this list were measured during 1978. Chemical and counting procedures are as reported previously (R, 1978, v 20, p 398-404). Age calculations are based on the conventional 14C half-life (5570 yr) and on the contemporary value of 95% of the activity of NBS oxalic acid. Errors quoted correspond to 1σ value which takes into account the counting statistics, the uncertainty in the half-life, and the instability of the counting system. The ages are not corrected for isotopic fractionation in nature.

This paper is concerned with the expected deviations in the production rate of natural 14C on the earth due to changes in solar activity. We review the published estimates of the global production rates of 14C due to galactic and solar cosmic ray particles, and present new estimates of the expected secular variations in 14C production, taking into account the latest information available on galactic cosmic ray modulation and long-term variations in solar activity.

The dating equipment and operating procedures in the Physical laboratory remained as described previously (R, 1974, v 16, no. 1, p 6-9).

Dates were calculated using the 5568-year half-life with 1950 as the reference year, the modern standard being 0.95 of the activity of the NBS oxalic acid standard. When done, δ13C was measured on CO2 produced in the combustion of samples, and results are given relative to the PDB standard. All samples were from Ireland.

We have investigated solar phenomena associated with unusual changes in the production rates of 14C in the atmosphere. 14C is produced in interactions of cosmic ray neutrons with nitrogen in the atmosphere. Intensity of the neutrons varies globally and fluctuates with time as a result of interactions of galactic cosmic rays which generate neutrons with plasma and magnetic fields of the solar wind. We estimate the total mean production rate of 14C for solar cycle 20, specifically 1965 to 1975, to be 2.25 ± 0.1 nuclei-cm−2sec−1 from galactic cosmic rays alone, with negligible integrated contribution from solar particle events. Annual averages of Rz, the Zurich sunspot number, and the production rate of 14C, n(14C), were related by n(14C) = 2.60–5.53 × 10–3 Rz ± 3 percent. The contribution of solar flare particles and the zero sunspot limit are discussed with relation to major fluctuations that appear in the radiocarbon versus dendrochronology over short (∼100 years) integration times.

Additional 14C data from the atmosphere and ocean have been provided since the ninth 14C conference in 1976. At the moment, one sampling station in the troposphere in each hemisphere seems to give sufficient accuracy for exchange studies. The 14C concentration in the troposphere in December 1978 constituted a mean value of 30 ± 1 percent (Δ14C) above normal level, a concentration that has been reduced to about one half during 12 years. 14C measurements have been performed with intervals of 1 to 4 months in the surface water of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. In addition to the 14C data observed, the salinity and temperature are also measured. Because of earlier objections against storing sea water in steel drums on board ships for months before treatment, the CO2 has now been flushed out immediately after collection. The reliability of previous measurements has been confirmed with 10 parallel samples. 14C concentration in ocean surface on each location shows some seasonal variation due to variable exchange of water with deeper layers.

This date list covers a selection of 14C results of hydrologic samples investigated from January 1978 until August 1979. According to convention, the ages were calculated with a 14C half-life of 5568 yr and 0.95% of the activity of NBS oxalic acid standard and are quoted in years before 1950. The recent activity of water is assumed to be 90% modern (Geyh and Kreysing, 1973) and corrections for 12C/13C isotopic fractionation have not been made.

Results presented in this date list have been obtained from Jan 1977 to Dec 1977, but some earlier measurements are also included. All calculations are based on a contemporary value equal to 0.95 of the activity of NBS oxalic acid standard and on the Libby value for the half-life of radiocarbon. Ages are reported as conventional radiocarbon dates in years before AD 1950. No corrections for 13C/12C ratio were made for measurements reported in this list. Errors quoted (±1σ) included estimated overall standard deviations of count rates of the unknown sample, contemporary standard and background (Pazdur & Walanus, 1979). Counting equipment and experimental procedures have been described earlier (Mościcki & Zastawny, 1976, 1977; Pazdur et al, 1978; Pazdur & Pazdur, 1979a). Sample descriptions are based on information provided by the submitters.

Nuclear-weapon produced 14C (or bomb 14C) in the ocean can be traced by simultaneous tritium observations. Data are presented on the general relationship of bomb 14C and tritium in the North Atlantic. For the period 1965 to 1973, the excess 14C to tritium ratios in the surface water vary, systematically, over a factor of 10: the ratios monotonically increase with time, and decrease with latitude, particularly so for the later observations. The sub-surface water ratios show that the mid- and low-latitude water below about the 15° C isothermal horizon (~500m depth) originates from higher northern latitudes, rather than being renewed by local vertical mixing. It is further shown that in the North Atlantic, bomb 14C did not penetrate beyond the horizon where the presently observed 14C concentration is Δ14C = —75‰. Observed concentrations up to about —40‰ can be corrected for a bomb contribution if the tritium concentration is known because the bomb 14C to tritium concentration ratio is rather uniform in this range. A surface water 14C concentration versus time curve is presented for the period since 1957. This curve is based on a North Atlantic mixing model and is fitted to the 14C observations. Making use of a previously published tritium versus time curve obtained by the same model, a time curve for the average excess 14C to tritium ratio in North Atlantic surface water is given. This curve reproduces the observations well. The presented data and theoretical curves show the usefulness of simultaneous 14C and tritium observations for mixing studies and to provide corrections for bomb 14C in sub-surface 14C data in the North Atlantic.

Since the publication of our first date list (R, 1966, v 8, p 239-247), our 14C laboratory has produced about 1500 radiocarbon dates, including several hundreds of concordant double determinations, the majority of which were on archaeologic samples. The greater part of the other dates concerned dendrochronologic samples from our Tree Ring Laboratory (Schmidt, 1977; Freundlich, 1977). Several archaeologic dates have already been published in articles on archaeology, preferentially by the respective excavators, in a few instances also by us (eg, Schwabedissen and Freundlich, 1968; Faruggia et al, 1973; Kuper, 1975; Lüning and Zürn, 1977; Hohenschwert, 1978). An extensive compilation of Neolithic dates is in preparation.

The following date list covers samples dated by the La Jolla Radiocarbon Laboratory during calendar year 1978. All archaeologic, all geologic, and some geochemical and botanical samples measured during that period are included here. Recent measurements of 14C in tree rings and in annual coral rings will be published elsewhere. Plots and discussion of data for corals from Belize and Florida have been published already by Druffel (1980).

Natural atmospheric 14C changes are caused by fluctuations in upper atmospheric 14C production rates (Q) that are related to earth geomagnetic field variations and changes in solar wind magnetic shielding properties. Climate variability may also be responsible for some of the changes because it influences exchange rates of 14C between the various terrestrial carbon reservoirs.

Upper atmospheric 14C production rates QM, in at/sec cm2 (earth), were calculated for the past 1200 years from the atmospheric 14C record and a carbon reservoir model. The changes in QM are compared in detail with the predicted Q variability derived from an Aa solar modulation mechanism and 20th century neutron flux observations. The influence of earth geomagnetic field changes on the magnitude of the solar wind modulation is discussed, and it is shown that the variations in this magnitude agree with the known differences in earth magnetic field intensity during the past 1200 years. The larger calculated QM oscillations during the sixth millennium bp also agree with this concept.

Solar wind magnetic as well as geomagnetic forces modulate the incoming cosmic ray flux and explain the main features of the atmospheric 14C record. It is argued that climatic fluctuation is not a dominant cause.

The oscillations between 3200 and 3700 BC, as measured by de Jong, Mook, and Becker, differ in rise time from those found for the current millennium.