As the twentieth century ends, we may identify both constructive and destructive trends that will influence the future of humanity. Which set of trends will dominate the future is uncertain. Attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors all interact to direct the flow of change over time. However, the options and constraints of human life are ultimately fixed by those cosmic elements of the environment over which humans have no control. The modern assumption of a world without end or limits risks collision with that obdurate reality. Facing threats to its long-term survival, humanity is challenged to learn how to build a sustainable future. A successful effort will require a concerted and cooperative effort among all fields of knowledge. This article identifies some of the trends that threaten humanity's future and suggests four lines of action that should be pursued in order to reduce the likelihood that humanity will destroy itself.

From a behavioral ecology perspective, all forms of warfare are instances of collective aggression perpetrated predominantly by coalitions of young men. Such coalitions are manifestations of cross-cultural sex differences in aggressive behavior and may be conceptualized as a form of intrasexual competition, occasionally to obtain mates, but more often to acquire resources for the attraction and retention of mates. All societies have young males, yet wars are discrete events that can take place even after long periods of peace. Therefore, an additional factor is needed to explain the episodic nature of the phenomenon. We have proposed (Mesquida and Wiener, 1996) that the most reliable factor in explaining episodes of coalitional aggression is the relative abundance of young males. In this article, we present additional evidence to that effect. The ratio of the number of men ages 15 to 29 years of age versus men 30 and older in a population appears to be associated with the occurrence and severity of conflicts as measured by the number of war casualties. A series of analyses of demographic and war casualty data indicates that the relative prevalence of young men consistently accounts for more than one third of the variance in severity of conflicts.

In 1996, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service made a proposal to restore and preserve 30,000 acres of wetlands in Indiana's Kankakee River basin. Local farmers opposed this, expressing concerns about how a wildlife refuge would affect farming communities along the Kankakee River. Undergirding what seems to be a simple conflict between incompatible environmental and economic interests is a more fundamental conflict between competing ethical frameworks for evaluating public policy. One helpful approach is to examine the normative issues in the Kankakee dispute in terms of the contrast between consequentialist and non-consequentialist ethical frameworks. This article attempts to establish that a failure to recognize alternatives to the consequentialist framework has resulted in a failure of opposing parties to recognize and address each other's ethical concerns. An analysis of the Kankakee wetlands dispute will reveal why it is important for environmentalists to be cognizant of alternatives to consequentialist ethical frameworks.

The goal of the Human Genome Diversity Project (HGDP) is to provide a comprehensive study of genetic diversity across different human populations. Scientists working on the HGDP plan to collect samples from all 400 to 500 geographically isolated or culturally unique human populations that desire to participate in the project. Few people have questioned the scientific merits of the HGDP and its potential contribution to our understanding of human genetics, but the project has created a storm of moral, cultural, and political controversy during its brief existence. Opponents have argued that the HGDP smacks of racism, commercialism, exploitation, and cultural imperialism. Critics have also found fault with the informed consent process proposed by organizers of the HGDP. Opposition to the HGDP has succeeded in impeding (but not derailing) this project. The essay explores some of the key moral, political, and cultural issues raised by the HGDP and argues that the project should be implemented and should be funded, provided that researchers and organizers take steps to address the issues it raises.

Biotechnology companies are developing transgenic fish, shellfish, and microorganisms to supplement conventional marine aquaculture and aid in the bioremediation of polluted coastal waters. These products may be ready for open-environment field trials or commercial applications within two to four years. Regulatory authority in the field of marine biotechnology is poorly defined and ill prepared, however, and the science base presently available is not adequate to support credible ecological risk assessment of genetically engineered marine organisms.

In response, I offer two specific public policy recommendations: (1) an accelerated program of basic and applied research in marine ecology underwritten by a combination of government and private funds, and (2) the creation of a dedicated unit within the National Marine Fisheries Service responsible for regulatory oversight of transgenic marine organisms. If implemented, these reforms will encourage development in the marine biotechnology industry while laying the groundwork for appropriate ecological risk assessment and management.

Torture is a crude and ancient method of extracting information and confessions from prisoners. Its use is still widespread throughout the world, but its techniques have become increasingly sophisticated. Today, information and confessions are commonly extracted from political prisoners with few signs of physical trauma. For instance, Israel's General Security Service has come to employ vigorous shaking as one such means of interrogation within the Occupied Territories of the Gaza and West Bank. This procedure may sound innocuous, but there are good reasons to believe that vigorous shaking can induce whiplash-related injuries. Such evidence is found in the child abuse and motor vehicle accident literature. Although global intellect may appear unaffected, more subtle emotional and cognitive dysfunction can create lasting impairment. This article concludes that vigorous shaking of political prisoners is a dangerous and potentially lethal mode of interrogation that should be discontinued by Israel's General Security Forces and avoided by all governments.

This article examines deforestation-induced environmental change in the Southern Region of Malawi. The political ecology approach is used to critique this change, assessing how colonial and postcolonial forestry policies affected the landscape. It is argued that non-participatory, “top-down” government programs disempowered Malawi's peoples and allowed the environment to degrade. The Blantyre Fuelwood Project shows how the politics of land use predicate environmental change. It is argued that government implemented, “top-down” approaches failed because they did not integrate local communities. The result has been local opposition to government programs, passive resistance, and deteriorating environmental conditions. The article critiques Malawi's forestry policies since colonial times, analyzes the political ecology of the Blantyre Fuelwood Project, and concludes with the hope that newly implemented “bottom-up” programs that incorporate local communities will make Malawi's environment more sustainable.