The use of survey or contingent valuation methods to estimate an individual's valuation of non-marketed goods, especially environmental resources, has attracted increasing attention in recent years. Initially, research efforts in this area were viewed by a majority of the economics profession with considerable skepticism. However, with the increased need for information on individuals’ valuation of a whole range of environmental resources and limitations on the ability of indirect market-based methods for valuing all of these resources, there has been a substantial increase in the use of contingent valuation methods to provide this information. Indeed, a recent state-of-the-art assessment (see Cummings et al. [1984]) of the contingent valuation method (CVM) has been able to develop a set of reference operating conditions under which it was reasonable to expect the CVM approach would yield estimates with accuracy that was approximately comparable to the indirect methods. Clearly the definition of these conditions is a judgmental one. Nonetheless, it was based on a substantial number of comparative studies evaluating the relationship between CVM and indirect market estimates of the benefits associated with changes in specific environmental resources. Moreover, it does reflect the changing attitude toward the CVM approach. It is therefore particularly appropriate to consider new directions in the development of the contingent valuation method.

Economic studies of changes in property rights institutions have been hampered by the use of ideal types. Conceptually we usually identify a small number of discrete property rights regimes, e.g., “open-access,” “common property” and “private property,” and then try to comprehend our data in terms of these categories. But in the so-called real world ideal types are seldom encountered. Instead we usually see complex mixtures of assorted arrangements, all growing or declining or mixing or separating at different rates and in different directions. Models containing nothing but ideal-type concepts are ill-suited to the analysis of such a reality. In this paper I want to examine a case of institutional change where one institutional regime was transformed into another; not by a discrete jump from one system to another, but through a gradual process of institutional adaptation and transition.

I want to begin with a caveat. I have no training in psychology, and my interest in the field is that of an amateur. Thus, the confidence with which I shall make statements about psychological facts is in inverse proportion to my expertise. My point of departure is the assumption that the most serious problem with contingent valuation (CV) methodology is hypothetical bias. Apart from introspection, the evidence for this assumption comes from two classic studies conducted by Richard Bishop and his colleagues at the University of Wisconsin. The first study by Bishop and Heberlein (1979) involved a survey of two random samples of individuals who had obtained permits to hunt ducks in the Horizon Zone of East Central Wisconsin. One sample group was asked the hypothetical question whether they would be willing to sell their permit for a specified sum of money (this sum differed among individuals). The other sample group was given a real opportunity to sell their permit for a specified sum of money; of 237 hunters surveyed, 105 actually sold their permits.

Agricultural economists often invoke instability, risk, and uncertainty as central concepts in understanding farm policy. Yet in analyzing policy alternatives we typically use comparative static methods that shift supply and demand curves and find new equilibria without reference to uncertainty in the economy or economic behavior other than profit-maximizing (risk neutral). This is true even in the most complex models being used to analyze 1985 farm bill alternatives, such as Johnson, et al. (1985). The aim of this paper is to understand this combination of simultaneous emphasis and neglect of risk considerations in policy analysis, and to assess costs of ignoring risk. The discussion consists of two parts, the first on normative considerations and the second on positive economics and risk.

Demand measurement for outdoor recreation has developed on a course that reflects trends in both theoretical economics and recreation policy. The early insights of Hotelling and Clawson and Knetsch express a dominant concern with estimating the demand for a single recreation site and the economic value of publicly provided, new recreation sites. Their theoretical framework was consistent with the emerging public goods theory which viewed recreation sites as homogeneous public goods demanded by homothetic consumers. In light of the emphasis on expanding leisure opportunities and public acquisition of recreational parkland in the national recreation policy of this period, their analysis was timely and an important benchmark for further refinements in measuring the economic value of recreation sites (Burt and Brewer; Cicchetti, Fisher and Smith).

An interregional model which minimizes production and transportation costs for broilers was developed and tested. Ten production and 22 consumption regions were defined. The results indicate that current flow patterns are relatively efficient given the existing production capacities. As demand increases the increased production will tend to be in the Southwest (Texas) and to a lesser extent in the Southeast (North Carolina). Shadow prices indicate that in the longer run production in the Northeast will continue to decline in relative terms and perhaps in absolute terms.

Regional economic growth based on private sector job creation is often proposed as a policy for reducing the incidence of regional unemployment, poverty and dependency. One factor that could limit the impact of economic growth on the employment and poverty status of an area's indigenous population is the area's public assistance system. This study evaluates the impact of recent changes in federal welfare legislation (HR 3982) on the work incentives and the poverty and dependency status of Delaware female household heads receiving Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) assistance. Specifically, the study estimates the implicit marginal tax rates that such household heads would face by accepting employment in private sector jobs to which they are potential entrants under the pre and post HR 3982 conditions. In addition, the study examines the effect of the HR 3982 changes on the poverty and dependency status of such households.

The paper's hypothesis is that the farmers using land with urban influenced prices are at a competitive disadvantage because their land input cost exceeds it calitialized earning power while land prices for other farmers are based on earning ability. This hypothesis was investigated by comparing rates of return to land in Massachusetts and two non-urban dairy regions in Wisconsin. Both areas have low rates of return compared to contemporary market interest rates with Massachusetts rates somewhat below those in Wisconsin. When additional factors are considered, the hypothesis is weakly supported, at best.

This paper develops an economic model of the New England groundfish market. A multi-sector, multi-level econometric model is estimated using data from 1970 to 1982. The parameters of the estimated model are used to characterize consumer demand for groundfish and related products. Retail and exvessel demands for fresh and frozen groundfish fillets are found to be highly elastic. Fresh fillets especially show high income elasticity of demand, reflecting their status as a luxury good. Only a very small and statistically weak relationship was found between the prices of imported groundfish and domestic ex vessel prices indicating that proposals to assist the domestic industry via tariffs may be ineffectual.

Researchers and decision makers are currently faced with a reduced supply of agricultural marketing information at both federal and state levels. Although a number of on-line computer informational sources are available to help fill this gap, the data are relatively expensive and often not available in the form or detail needed at the farm level. This paper examines expected future sources of agricultural information in the public, private and semi-public/private sectors. A working model of a semi-public/ private informational system is presented. The proposed self-help grower informational model system can be tailored to provide farm level data needed at a reasonable cost.

One option for the disposal of sewage sludge is land spreading, including application to private croplands. Land spreading may allow some of the sewage treatment costs to the municipality or county to be offset by farmers’ payments for sludge as a crop producing resource. This study investigates the conditions under which a market for sludge will emerge. A linear programming model of a profit maximizing corn for gain farm is formulated and the quantity of sludge available is parametrically varied to trace out marginal productivity curves under various situations. The results for Anne Arundel county, Maryland sludge show a range in value from 0–35 $/ton at application rates from 0–20 tons/acre/year for three years.

Local area governments have experienced increasingly stringent budget constraints in recent years. Innovations in service delivery provide one avenue for increasing the effectiveness of resource allocations. This paper explores the potential savings available from regionalizing emergency medical service provision. A mixed integer programming model incorporating peak demand considerations is used to minimize service cost given a desired maximum response time. Changes in the weighted average response time measure the quality degradation required to attain the savings from cooperative provision. The results indicate that the benefits are substantial but that distribution of these gains is a possible barrier to implementation.

The primary objective of this research was to examine attitudes toward industrial development activities in a depressed rural county, and to document differences in those attitudes between men and women residents of the area.

The effect that selected characteristics of a Pennsylvania hay auction has on winning bids of loads of hay are presented in this paper. Survey data from 107 buyers over the period September 1982 to April 1983 were used. Hay type, perceived quality, and the intended use of the hay were found to be significant factors in explaining prices paid per ton. Sellers could increase their revenues by producing alfalfa hay, alfalfa and legume-grass hay of higher quality, and attending marketing days with a larger number of horse feed buyers.

Policy issues surrounding Federal programs for land retirement as a means of curtailing soil erosion are discussed in this paper. The analysis is structured around productivity differentials observed for New York cropland rated as highly erosive, moderately erosive, or nonerosive.

An interregional transportation model was constructed using ordinary least squares and reactive programming to evaluate the short-run economic impact of changing transportation rate on the U.S. interregional equilibrium and, in particular, the Northeast's competitive position for fresh peaches. Using fixed regional supplies, uniquely determined regional per capita consumption and existing transportation rates the reactive programming algorithm obtains solutions to the spatial equilibrium problem including: overall regional quantities supplied and demanded, prices, consumers’ outlays, producers’ revenues and opportunity, transfer and shipping costs. Transportation rates were varied 20 percent above and below the current rates to examine the short-run economic impact on the prevailing equilibrium. The East Coast was a relatively isolated market and therefore was not significantly affected by changes in transportation rates. The most significant changes in producers’ revenues and trade flow patterns occurred in the remaining regions that traded mostly amongst themselves.

A new interpretation of commodity futures price theory is evaluated because, currently, many products exhibit price behavior which cannot be explained with existing theory. A method for classifying products according to the particular price theory relevant to them is provided. The classification method uses the futures price dependence enforced by arbitrage opportunities in spot markets as its base. The futures markets for beef cattle and corn are used as examples.

This paper examines the acquisition of wood stoves by New Hampshire households through use of a utility-maximizing discrete choice model. The analysis is based on the hypothesis that wood stoves are acquired to decrease the monetary costs of home-heating. Operating costs associated with heating with conventional fuel burning capital and with a combination of conventional and wood stove heating capital are estimated. These operating costs are used to estimate probabilities of 1979 wood stove acquisition for particular types of New Hampshire households.