The 2008 UK government White Paper, published as part of the Managing Radioactive Waste Safety programme, identified benefits to disposing of all of the UK's higher activity wastes at the same site. That is, a single geological disposal facility (GDF) could be constructed that consists of a module for low- and intermediate-level waste, and a module for high-level waste and spent fuel.

A safety case for a co-located GDF will have to consider the extent to which evolving thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical and gas (THMCG) conditions in and around one module may affect conditions in the other module, including the extent to which barrier performance and radionuclide migration behaviour could be altered. Several research projects have been undertaken on behalf of Radioactive Waste Management Directorate aimed at understanding and evaluating the THMCG interactions that might occur during the disposal facility operational and post-closure phases.

This paper describes research on THMCG interactions between disposal modules based on illustrative GDF designs for different host rock environments. Interactions were evaluated using simple analytical solutions and detailed three-dimensional models. The analyses demonstrated that interactions can be controlled by design constraints.

A three-year European Commission project entitled performance assessment methodologies in application to guide the development of the safety case (PAMINA) was conducted in the period 2006–2009 and brought together 27 organizations from ten European countries, including the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority and Galson Sciences Ltd from the UK. The PAMINA project had the aim of improving and developing a common understanding of performance assessment (PA) methodologies for disposal concepts for spent fuel and other long-lived radioactive wastes in a range of geological environments.

Work undertaken within PAMINA focussed on four areas: (1) review of PA methodologies in participating organizations; (2) treatment of uncertainty in PA and the safety case; (3) other methodological advancements in PA; and (4) relevance of advanced PA approaches to practical cases.

The state of development of a radioactive waste disposal programme has a strong influence on the type of safety case and supporting PA that is produced. A range of PA methodologies has been developed by different waste management organizations. This paper presents a selection of conclusions from the PAMINA project, in the context of general understanding developed on what would constitute an acceptable safety case for a geological disposal facility, and outlines areas for further development.

Disposal in deep geological formations aims to provide isolation of long-lived radioactive waste for hundreds of thousands of years. This raises the question of the long-term governance of the repository throughout its lifetime. In the operational phase the repository is under active regulatory control. Once closed, there will be a phase of passive management control or indirect oversight. This will be followed, at some time in the future, by a period in which there is no oversight. This may be a result of a decision to cease management control or it may occur through loss of records or a change in priorities. The importance of the main exposure scenarios (exposure as a result of the gradual transport of radionuclides in groundwater, transport of radionuclides in gas, and exposure arising from inadvertent intrusion into the repository) are discussed with reference to these different phases. An interesting question is 'How do we minimize the risk of inadvertent intrusion in the far future?' Perhaps it is better to ensure that the repository is forgotten and should we try to plan for this? The different approaches are discussed and the importance of deciding on a strategy at an early stage is emphasized.

Programmes for the geological disposal of radioactive wastes are by nature extremely complex. A structured approach for making and documenting varied kinds of decisions is required to support programme design and implementation. At each programme stage, the decision-making process must be able to identify and justify key priorities for work, to reduce uncertainties.

To support structured decision-making evidence support logic (ESL) has been developed and applied to varied complex projects, nationally and internationally, in several industries. Evidence support logic involves breaking down a hypothesis that informs a decision into a hierarchical 'decision tree'. Examples of hypotheses are 'the geology associated with site x will provide sufficient disposal capacity', 'container x will contain waste form y for z years' and 'the engineered barrier system will provide the required safety functions'. Independent evaluations of confidence 'for' and 'against' bottom-level hypotheses allow the level of remaining uncertainty (or conflict) to be recognized explicitly, and the overall confidence (and uncertainty) relevant to the overall decision, and key sensitivities, to be represented clearly and succinctly.

Thus ESL can help (1) break down decisions into a manageable and logical structure, assisting clear presentation; (2) identify key uncertainties and sensitivities to inform prioritization; and (3) test whether the outcomes of specific studies have improved confidence.