Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-jbqgn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-26T08:49:03.983Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Decision-making from probability forecasts based on forecast value

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 August 2002

Kenneth R. Mylne
Affiliation:
The Met Office, London Road, Bracknell, Berks RG12 2SZ UK
Get access

Abstract

A method of estimating the economic value of weather forecasts for decision-making is described. This method has recently been used for user-oriented verification of probability forecasts, but is here applied to aid forecast users in optimising their decision-making from probability forecasts. Value may be calculated in the same way for either probability forecasts or deterministic forecasts, and thus provides the user with a direct comparison of the value of each in terms of money saved, which is more relevant than most standard verification scores. The method is illustrated using site-specific probability forecasts generated from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system and deterministic forecasts from the ECMWF high-resolution global model. It is found that for most forecast events and for most users the probability forecasts have greater value than the deterministic forecasts from a higher resolution model.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2002 Royal Meteorological Society

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)