We investigate how stochastic asset price dynamics with herding and financial constraints explains the presence of a period of financial distress (PFD) following the peak and preceding the crash of a bubble [Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crisis, 4th ed. (New York: Wiley, 2000, Appendix B)] as common among most major historical speculative bubbles. Simulations show that the PFD is due to (1) agents' wealth distribution dynamics and (2) positive and sufficiently high transaction costs generating losses for a significant mass of the agents' distribution after the peak of the bubble. The use of transaction costs to get the result is only a modeling tool. Many other mechanisms—able to generate losses for a large mass of the agents' distribution in periods in which financial constraints bind—can produce the same result. The paper also shows how the PFD is affected by a variation of the sensitivity of price to the excess demand and by the switching strategy.

Empirical evidence suggests that the instrument rule describing the interest rate–setting behavior of the Federal Reserve is nonlinear. This paper shows that optimal monetary policy under parameter uncertainty can motivate this pattern. If the central bank is uncertain about the slope of the Phillips curve and follows a min–max strategy to formulate policy, the interest rate reacts more strongly to inflation when inflation is further away from target. The reason is that the worst case the central bank takes into account is endogenous and depends on the inflation rate and the output gap. As inflation increases, the worst-case perception of the Phillips curve slope becomes larger, thus requiring a stronger interest rate adjustment. Empirical evidence supports this form of nonlinearity for post-1982 U.S. data.

We present a fairly standard general equilibrium model of endogenous growth with productive and nonproductive public goods and services. The former enhance private productivity and the latter private utility. We study Ramsey second-best optimal policy, where the latter is summarized by the paths of the income tax rate and the allocation of collected tax revenues between productivity-enhancing and utility-enhancing public expenditures. We show that the properties and macroeconomic implications of the second-best optimal policy (a) are different from the benchmark case of the social planner's first-best allocation and (b) depend crucially on whether public goods and services are subject to congestion.

This paper presents an integrated theory of money and dynamic credit. I study financial intermediation when both the intermediary and individuals have private information. I show that money is essential to solving two-sided incentive problems under the dynamic credit arrangement. First, requiring settlement with money can induce market trades that generate information-revealing prices to discipline the intermediary. Second, it is optimal for the intermediary to issue money that can record its own history of being used in settlements, and to require that settlements be made with only money that has been returned to the intermediary every settlement period. This arrangement effectively reduces individuals' incentives to deviate and allows intermediation to achieve efficient allocations.

A model is constructed in which trading partners are asymmetrically informed about future trading opportunities and spatial and informational frictions limit arbitrage between markets. These frictions create inefficiency relative to a full-information equilibrium, and the extent of this inefficiency is affected by monetary policy. A Friedman rule is optimal under a wide range of circumstances, including ones where segmented markets limit the extent of monetary policy intervention.

Previous research shows that volatility in oil prices has tended to depress output, as measured by nonresidential investment and GDP. This is interpreted as evidence in support of the theory of real options in capital budgeting decisions, which predicts that uncertainty about, for example, commodity prices will cause firms to delay production and investment. We continue that investigation by analyzing the effect of oil price uncertainty on monthly measures of U.S. firm production related to industries in mining, manufacturing, and utilities. We use a more general specification, an updated sample that includes the increased oil price volatility since 2008, and we control for other nonlinear measures of oil prices. We find additional empirical evidence in support of the predictions of real options theory, and our results indicate that the extreme volatility in oil prices observed in 2008 and 2009 contributed to the severity of the decline in manufacturing activity.

This paper proposes the use of wavelet methods to estimate U.S. core inflation. It explains wavelet methods and suggests that they are ideally suited to this task. Comparisons are made with traditional Consumer Price Index–based and regression-based measures for their performance in following trend inflation and predicting future inflation. Results suggest that wavelet-based measures perform better, and sometimes much better, than the traditional approaches. These results suggest that wavelet methods are a promising avenue for future research on core inflation.

The standard model of the small open economy is burdened with a unit root that greatly complicates numerical computation of the global saddle path. In this paper we solve the unit root problem by developing a set of innovative forward-shooting algorithms. Exploiting the fact that the algorithms are mechanical and model-free, we have placed canned, fully automated programs in the public domain. The programs do not require any substantive human input. The user's only responsibility is to type in the equations of the model correctly.

By endowing his agents with simple forecasting models, or representations, M. Woodford (“Learning to Believe in Sunspots,” Econometrica 58, 277–307, 1990) found that finite state Markov sunspot equilibria may be stable under learning. We show that common factor representations generalize to all sunspot equilibria the representations used by Woodford. We find that if finite state Markov sunspots are stable under learning then all sunspots are stable under learning, provided common factor representations are used.

We study the general equilibrium properties of two growth models with overlapping generations, habit formation, and endogenous fertility. In the neoclassical model, habits modify the economy's growth rate and generate transitional dynamics in fertility; stationary income per capita is associated with either increasing or decreasing population and output, depending on the strength of habits. In the AK specification, growing population and increasing consumption per capita require that the habit coefficient lie within definite boundaries; outside the critical interval, positive growth is associated with either declining consumption due to overcrowding, or extinction paths with declining population. In both frameworks, habits reduce fertility: the trade-off between second-period consumption and spending for bequests prompts agents to decrease fertility in order to make parental altruism less costly. This mechanism suggests that status-dependent preferences may explain part of the decline in fertility rates observed in most developed economies.

This paper models the liquidity effects after a contractionary open market operation in a framework that highlights the frictions of limited participation in financial markets and search frictions in labor markets. It is shown that Lucas rigidities, with the aid of labor market rigidities, could generate more persistent liquidity effects even in a context of flexible prices. In addition, the simulation results show that this adapted liquidity and labor search model does a reasonable good job in explaining the observed labor market dynamics in response to shocks of a plausible magnitude, and deliver substantial movements along a downward-sloping Beveridge curve.

Contemporaries and economic historians have noted several features of medieval and early modern European monetary systems that are hard to analyze using models of centralized exchange. For example, contemporaries complained of recurrent shortages of small change and argued that an abundance/dearth of money had real effects on exchange, especially for the poor. To confront these facts, we build a random-matching monetary model with two indivisible coins with different intrinsic values. The model shows that small change shortages can exist, in the sense that adding small coins to an economy with only large coins is welfare-improving. This effect is amplified by increases in trading opportunities. Further, changes in the quantity of monetary metals affect the real economy and the amount of exchange as well as the optimal denomination size. Finally, the model shows that replacing full-bodied small coins with tokens is not necessarily welfare-improving.

This paper develops a search-theoretic model to study the interaction between banking and monetary policy and how this interaction affects allocation and welfare. Regarding how banking affects the welfare costs of inflation, we find that, with banking, inflation generates lower welfare costs. We also find that lowering inflation improves welfare not just by reducing consumption/production distortions, but also by avoiding financial intermediation costs. Therefore, understanding the nature of financial intermediation is critical for accurately assessing the welfare gain from lowering the inflation rate. Regarding how monetary policy affects the welfare effects of banking, we find that, when the inflation is low, banking is not active in channeling liquidity; when inflation is high, banking is active and improves welfare; and when inflation is moderate, banking is active but reduces welfare. Owing to general-equilibrium feedback, banking is supported in equilibrium even though welfare is higher without banking.

We examine how future real GDP growth relates to changes in the forecasted long-term average of discounted real oil prices and to changes in unanticipated fluctuations of real oil prices around the forecasts. Forecasts are conducted using a state-space oil market model, in which global real economic activity and real oil prices share a common stochastic trend. Changes in unanticipated fluctuations and changes in the forecasted long-term average of discounted real oil prices sum to real oil price changes. We find that these two components have distinctly different relationships with future real GDP growth. Positive and negative changes in the unanticipated fluctuations of real oil prices correlate with asymmetric responses of future real GDP growth. In comparison, changes in the forecasted long-term average are smaller in magnitude but are more influential on real GDP. Persistent upward revisions of forecasts in the 2000s had a substantial negative impact on real GDP growth, according to our estimates.

In the existing literature, panic-based bank runs are triggered by a commonly acknowledged and observed sunspot signal. There are only two equilibrium realizations resulting from the commonly observed sunspot signal: Everyone runs or no one runs. I consider a more general and more realistic situation in which consumers observe noisy private sunspot signals. If the noise in the signals is sufficiently small, there exists a proper correlated equilibrium for some demand deposit contracts. A full bank run, a partial bank run (in which some consumers panic whereas others do not), or no bank run occurs, depending on the realization of the sunspot signals. If the probabilities of runs are small, the optimal demand deposit contract tolerates full and partial bank runs.

There is a family of models with physical and human capital and R&D for which convergence properties have been discussed [Lutz G. Arnold, European Economic Review 44, 1599–1605 (2000); Manuel Gómez, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 9(1), Article 5 (2005)]. However, spillovers in R&D have been ignored in this context. We introduce spillovers in this model and derive the steady-state and stability properties. This new feature implies that the model is characterized by a system of four differential equations. A unique balanced growth path, along with a two-dimensional stable manifold, is obtained under simple and reasonable conditions. Transition is oscillatory toward the steady state for plausible values of parameters. We discovered that these features are due to the presence of the R&D spillovers externality in the decentralized equilibrium.

We pursue a semiparametric approach to examining core implications of the Fisher hypothesis, namely cointegration linking nominal interest rates and inflation, and homogeneity of the potential equilibrium relation. The sample is an unbalanced panel and comprises monthly time series from more than 100 economies. The time period of at most 45 years is subdivided into three regimes according to dominating monetary policies. To exploit the cross-sectional dimension for inference on parameter homogeneity, we apply mean group estimation of functional coefficients that allow the conditioning of key model parameters on economic states. The evidence in favor of cointegration is weakened over states of negative real interest rates that are likely to coincide with scenarios of high inflation. The ex post real interest rate is mostly diagnosed as unstable. The Fisher hypothesis is particularly confirmed for states characterized by large positive interest rate adjustments during the inflation-targeting regime.

The next international version of the System of National Accounts will recommend that R&D (Research and Development) expenditures be capitalized instead of being immediately expensed as in the present System of National Accounts 1993. An R&D project creates a new technology, which in principle does not depreciate like a reproducible asset. A new technology is, however, subject to obsolescence, which acts in a manner that is somewhat similar to depreciation. The paper looks at the net benefits of an R&D project in the context of a very simple intertemporal general equilibrium model and suggests that R&D expenditures be amortized using the matching principle that has been developed in the accounting literature to match the fixed costs of a project to a stream of future benefits. Of particular interest is the evaluation of the net benefits of a publicly funded project where the results are made freely available to the public.

I use the monetary version of the neoclassical growth model developed by Aruoba, Waller, and Wright [Journal of Monetary Economics (2011)] to study the properties of the model when there is exogenous growth. I first consider the planner's problem, and then the equilibrium outcome in a monetary economy. I do so by first using proportional bargaining to determine the terms of trade and then considering competitive price taking. I obtain closed-form solutions for all variables along the balanced growth path in all cases. I then derive closed-form solutions for the transition paths under the assumption of full depreciation and, in the monetary economy, a particular nonstationary interest rate policy. The key result is that inflation is damaging to per capita income levels along the balanced growth path and to short-run growth of the economy.

In this paper, we analyze the adequacy of using GARCH as the data-generating process to model conditional volatility of stock market index rates-of-return series. Using the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test, we find that a GARCH formulation or any of its variants fail to provide an adequate characterization for the underlying process of the main Latin American stock market indices. Policymakers need to be careful when using autoregressive models for policy analysis and forecast because the inadequacy of GARCH models has strong implications for the pricing of stock index options, portfolio selection, and risk management. In particular, measures of spillover effects and output volatility may not be correct when GARCH-type models are used to evaluate economic policy.