The paper estimates public consumption multipliers and whether they vary depending on the slack of the economy. To this aim, linear and smooth-transition panel local projections are applied to a data set composed of quarterly data on nine selected Euro area countries for the period 1999Q1−2018Q4. The results show that the linear multiplier is approximately 1.3 and so above unity. This is, however, an “average result” as clear evidence is found in favor of state dependency. Particularly, the findings indicate that the multiplier is approximately 2.0 in the slack regime, while it is below 0.5 in the good regime. These results are robust along several dimensions, such as alternative measures of slack and controlling for fiscal foresight. Some linear and state-dependent transmission channels are also investigated.

How should central banks optimally aggregate sectoral inflation rates in the presence of imperfect labor mobility across sectors? We study this issue in a two-sector New-Keynesian model and show that a lower degree of sectoral labor mobility, ceteris paribus, increases the optimal weight on inflation in a sector that would otherwise receive a lower weight. We analytically and numerically find that, with limited labor mobility, adjustment to asymmetric shocks cannot fully occur through the reallocation of labor, thus putting more pressure on wages, causing inefficient movements in relative prices, and creating scope for central bank’ s intervention. These findings challenge standard central banks’ practice of computing sectoral inflation weights based solely on sector size and unveil a significant role for the degree of sectoral labor mobility to play in the optimal computation. In an extended estimated model of the US economy, featuring customary frictions and shocks, the estimated inflation weights imply a decrease in welfare up to 10% relative to the case of optimal weights.

This paper examines how wealth and income inequality dynamics are related to fluctuations in the functional income distribution over the business cycle. In a panel estimation for OECD countries between 1970 and 2016, although inequality is, on average countercyclical and significantly associated with the capital share, one-third of the countries display a pro- or noncyclical relationship. To analyze the observed pattern, we incorporate distributive shocks into an RBC model, where agents are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to wealth and ability. We find that whether wealth and income inequality behave countercyclically or not depends on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution and the persistence of shocks. We match the model to quarterly US data using Bayesian techniques. The parameter estimates point toward a non-monotonic relationship between productivity and inequality fluctuations. On impact, inequality increases in response to TFP shocks but subsequently declines. Furthermore, TFP shocks explain 17% of inequality fluctuations.

This study explores the linkage between the labor force participation of the elderly and the long-run performance of the economy in the context of a two-period-lived overlapping generations model. We assume that the old agents are heterogeneous in their labor efficiency and they continue working if their income exceeds the pension that can be received in the case of full retirement. We first inspect the key factors that determine the retirement decision of the elderly. We then examine analytically as well as numerically the long-run impact of labor participation of the elderly on capital accumulation and income distribution.

This study investigates the labor market under increased automation of middle-skilled jobs wherein worker suitability for these jobs is considered. We examine two effects of increased automation on workers. The first effect is the possibility of replacement of middle-skilled workers by machines. The second effect is the diversity in job mismatch probabilities of workers. If machines perform a worker’s suitable jobs more (or less) than the worker’s unsuitable jobs, then the worker’s job mismatch probability rises (or declines). Because workers who have larger job mismatch probabilities remain job seekers, it is more difficult for a firm to find a suitable worker. Due to these two effects, underemployment rises.

The rate of innovation in Information Technology (IT) has slowed down over time. The slowdown is evident both in the data on quality-adjusted prices of computers, and performance of microprocessors used in computers. The model in this paper shows that an IT–labor elasticity of substitution that is greater than 1 can explain the slowdown. With an elasticity of substitution greater than 1, however, slowing innovation can result in sustained labor productivity and output growth. Sustained growth is possible because an IT–labor elasticity of substitution greater than 1 results in a continuously increasing share of IT in production costs, which counteracts the effect of slowing innovation on labor productivity and output growth. In this environment of slowing innovation, increasing IT share and sustained growth, employment can increase or decrease, depending on the values of the IT–labor elasticity of substitution and the price elasticity of demand for IT-enabled consumption goods.

We quantify the importance of idiosyncratic health risk in a calibrated general equilibrium model of Social Security. We construct an overlapping generations model with rational-expectations households, idiosyncratic labor income and health risk, profit-maximizing firms, incomplete insurance markets, and a government that provides pensions and health insurance. We calibrate this model to the US economy and perform two computational experiments: $\left (i\right)$ cutting Social Security’s payroll tax, and $\left (ii\right)$ modifying Social Security’s benefit-earnings rule. Our findings suggest that health risk amplifies the welfare implications of both experiments: downsizing Social Security always leads to higher overall welfare, but the welfare gain is larger when we account for health risk, and increasing the progressivity of Social Security’s benefit-earnings rule has a larger positive effect on welfare in the presence of health risk. We also find that allowing households additional tools to self-insure against health risk weakens the precautionary motive, so our experiments have similar welfare implications both with and without health risk.

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of seven key TCJA provisions, including the tax cuts for individuals and businesses, the bonus depreciation of equipment, the amortization of R&D expenses, and the limits on interest deductibility. I use a dynamic general equilibrium model with interest deductibility and accelerated depreciation. I find that, initially, the tax reform had a small positive effect on output and investment. In the medium term, however, the effect on output will diminish, and the effect on investment will turn negative. The tax reform will depress investment in R&D. Government debt will surge.

According to search and matching theory, a greater availability of unemployed workers should make it easier for a firm to fill a vacancy, but more vacancies at other firms should make recruitment more difficult. Simulating a theoretical model of a firm facing perfect competition in the product market and no convex adjustment costs (standard assumptions in the search and matching literature), I find that shocks to vacancies and unemployment lead to economically significant employment responses. Simulating a more realistic model with imperfect competition in the product market and convex adjustment costs, I find small employment effects of shocks to vacancies and unemployment. In particular, shocks to the number of unemployed seem to be unimportant. Estimating an employment equation on a panel of Swedish firms, I find that neither the number of unemployed workers nor the number of vacancies in the local labor market is important for firms’ employment decisions.

The deleterious effect of debt restructuring on banks’ balance sheets and, consequently, on the economy as a whole has been a key policy issue. This paper studies how post-default fiscal policy interacts with this sovereign-bank loop and shape the response of a model economy. Calibration of the model matches characteristics of the Greek economy at the time of the bond exchange. Debt restructuring in place of higher lump-sum taxation or lower nonproductive government spending harms the economy even if no other cost of default is considered. However, the sovereign-debt loop is less costly to the economy than increases in labor or capital taxes to service debt. Even so, if fiscal policy is too responsive, a crowding-out effect inhibits the recovery of capital markets, hence a more conservative fiscal stance is desirable. Thus, how diabolic the post-default sovereign-bank loop is depends to a large extent on the way fiscal policy responds.

We model an economy where present biased preferences affect the bequest leaving decisions. Using Bequest in the Utility (BIU) setup, we show that the optimal inheritance tax rate under present bias can be derived in terms of estimable sufficient statistics. This optimal tax rate decreases with the level of temptation and a subsidy can be optimal at some level of bequests received. We then use the Barro-Becker Dynastic (BBD) setup to derive the expression for the optimal inheritance tax rates. We observe that if the agents internalize the taxes on the amount of bequest that they leave (sensitive generations), present bias and optimal tax rates are negatively related as in BIU, that is, providing an incentive by extending subsidies or lowering taxes is recommended to subside the effects of temptation. However, if agents ignore the taxes to be paid by their descendants on the inheritance left (ignorant generations), optimal tax rates increase with the level of present bias. This is because the present bias reduces the tax base and the rationale of providing incentives does not work anymore. Our calibration exercise supports all these theoretical findings.

This paper analyzes how idiosyncratic risk, measured by the variance of firm-level idiosyncratic shocks, affects long-run growth when bankruptcy costs are present. These costs are incurred by creditors during the bankruptcy procedure of failing firms. In an endogenous growth model with bankruptcy costs where firms privately observe the outcome of idiosyncratic shocks, an increase in idiosyncratic risk reduces long-run growth. This happens because, when bankruptcy costs are present, higher idiosyncratic risk enlarges the wedge between the rental rate of capital and its marginal product, thereby slowing down capital accumulation. This growth-reducing effect of idiosyncratic risk is stronger when bankruptcy costs are higher. Empirical support for these propositions is provided in a growth regression that exploits cross-country variations in the dispersion of firms’ real sales growth as a proxy for idiosyncratic risk along with recovery rates as a measure that proxies the inverse of bankruptcy costs.

In practice, firms face a number of scarce innovation projects. They choose one towards which to direct their effort, but do not coordinate these choices. This gives rise to coordination frictions. This paper develops an expanding-variety endogenous growth model to study the implications of these frictions for growth and welfare. We find that the coordination failure generates a number of foregone innovations and reduces the economy-wide research intensity. Both effects decrease the growth rate. This creates a general equilibrium effect that endogenously amplifies the fraction of wasteful simultaneous innovation. Furthermore, formalizing the coordination frictions uncovers a novel link between the “stepping on toes” and “standing on shoulders” externalities—their magnitudes are endogenously determined through the ratio of firms to innovation projects. We find that the “stepping on toes” externality is larger for all parameter values.

This paper argues that not only actual lockdowns can affect economies but also noisy information about them. We construct a New Keynesian model with imperfect information about how long the lockdown would last. On the one hand, a false signal about the lockdown lowers consumption, investment, employment, and output, and this effect can be quantitatively sizable. On the other hand, a true information about a lockdown being introduced can also be misinterpreted and hence cause an impact on agents’ decisions being quantitatively different from the one desired by the authorities. To the extent that the latter have less noisy information about future lockdowns than the private sector, they can reduce these undesired fluctuations by precisely communicating the lockdown policy. Importantly, under some circumstances only radical improvements in information precision are successful.

This paper augments the DMP model with large firms and intrafirm wage bargaining by an endogenous decision to become an entrepreneur that is based on heterogeneous entrepreneurial abilities. If workers’ wage bargaining power is not too large and the match efficiency is not too low, the decentralized market equilibrium features an inefficiently high number of entrepreneurs, because they appropriate large parts of the surplus from matches. A realistic calibration with empirically plausible parameters shows this case to be the relevant one. Consequently, introducing a tax on the profits of entrepreneurs restores the constrained first-best allocation by affecting occupational choices. It drives rather unproductive entrepreneurs out of the market since the marginal entrepreneur is affected and not the average one. Thus, the negative effects on job creation are small.

When studying the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC’s) interest rate rule, some authors, such as Gonzalez-Astudillo [(2018) Journal of Monetary, Credit, and Banking 50(1), 115–154.], find evidence for changes in inflation and output gap responses. Others, such as Sims and Zha [(2006) American Economic Review 96(1), 54–81.], only find evidence for a change in the variance of the interest rate rule. In this paper, I develop a new two-regime Markov-switching model that probabilistically performs variable selection and identification of parameter change for each variable in the model. I find substantial evidence that there have been changes in the FOMC’s response to the unemployment gap and in the volatility of the rule. When the FOMC responds strongly to the unemployment gap, I find a bimodal density for the inflation response coefficient. Despite the bimodal density, there is a low probability that there have been changes in the FOMC’s response to inflation.

We use a labor search model with heterogenous households and firms to study the efficacy of a wage subsidy during a pandemic, relative to enhancing unemployment benefits. A large proportion of the economy is forced to shut down, and firms in that sector choose whether to lay off workers or keep them on payroll. A wage subsidy encourages firms to keep workers on payroll, which speeds up labor market recovery after the pandemic ends. However, a wage subsidy can be costlier than enhancing unemployment benefits. If the shutdown is long or profit margins are low, then a wage subsidy is preferable and vice versa. The optimal mixture of policies includes a wage subsidy that covers 90$\%$ of the first $200/week of earnings and expands unemployment benefits to cover all salary up to $275/week. Low-income workers, as well as those in less productive jobs, benefit the most from a wage subsidy.

This paper aims to estimate the government investment fiscal multipliers in select European countries for the period 1970–2016. To do this, we combine Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) modeling with the Local Projections (LP) approach. We estimate models by also controlling for fiscal foresight, excluding the postcrisis period and distinguishing between Northern and Southern countries. Our findings suggest that an increase in government investment generates a “Keynesian effect” by engendering positive and permanent effects on the GDP level, even when government expenditure expectations are considered. Fiscal multipliers are close to 1 on impact and increase in the years after the implementation of a discretionary fiscal policy.

We examine, conditional on structural shocks, the macroeconomic performance of different countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) rules in small open economy estimated medium-scale Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. We find that rules based on the credit gap create a trade-off between the stabilization of fluctuations originating in the housing market and fluctuations caused by foreign demand shocks. The trade-off disappears if the regulator responds to house prices instead. It turns out that the welfare-maximising simple CCyB rule implies responding to house prices only and not to the credit gap. Such rule also leads to significant welfare gains compared to the no CCyB case.

This paper proposes a model to jointly explain two stylized facts observed in the recent empirical literature—the existence of a significant size of wealthy hand-to-mouth consumers and negative marginal propensities to consume associated with housing upgrades. The key ingredients of the model are a realistic set of housing choices, sizable down payment requirements, transaction costs, and endogenous borrowing constraints. Moreover, in the presence of unanticipated income shocks, this richness in marginal propensities to consume has significant implications for aggregate consumption and helps explain the puzzling increase in savings by low net worth households observed during the Great Recession as well as the consumption responses to recent tax rebates.