¹ For a concise summary of the demographic transition, see Coale, Ansley J., “The Demographic Transition Reconsidered,” International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, General Conference: Liege, 1973 (Liege, 1974), Vol. I, pp. 53–72Google Scholar. On moderization, see Kuznets, Simon, Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure, and Spread (New Haven, 1966), esp. pp. 34–63Google Scholar.

² Glass, D. V. and Grebinik, E., “World Population, 1800–1950,” in Habakkuk, H. J. and Postan, M. M., eds., The Cambridge Economic History of Europe, Vol. VI, Part I (Cambridge, England, 1965), pp. 60–138Google Scholar; Rogmann, Heinz, Die Bevölkerungsentwicklung im preussischen Osten in den letzten hundert Jahren (Breslau, 1936), pp. 51–72Google Scholar.

³ For a description see Pounds, Norman J. G., The Upper Silesian Industrial Region (Bloomington, Indiana, 1958)Google Scholar.

⁴ The agricultural areas are based on an ethnic and economic division of the 15 original largely agricultural Kreise. Sub-Region I (5 Kreise) was German and agricultural. Sub-Region II (6 Kreise) was Polish and agricultural. Sub-Region IV (4 Kreise) was Polish and agricultural, but became more industrial late in the century. The industrial area (Sub-Region III) consisted of the original Kreis Beuthen (Bytom) which was subdivided into 3 Stadtkreise and 4 Landkreise after 1873. Some of the agrarian counties were also subdivided, so that Oppeln had 26 Kreise by 1926. The whole agricultural area consisted of Sub-Regions I, II, and IV. See Haines, Michael R., “Economic-Demographic Interrelations in Developing Agricultural Regions: A Case Study of Prussian Upper Silesia, 1840–1914” (Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Pennsylvania, 1971), ch. 1 and pp. 70–71Google Scholar.

⁵ Excellent discussions of the demography of pre-industrial populations may be found in Wrigley, E. A., Population and History (New York, 1969), chs. 3 and 4Google Scholar; and Habakkuk, H. J., Population Growth and Economic Development Since 1750 (Leicester, England, 1971), pp. 7–24Google Scholar. See also Thomas, Dorothy S., Social and Economic Aspects of Swedish Population Movements, 1750–1933 (New York, 1941)Google Scholar.

⁶ The standard deviation divided by the mean.

⁷ This was a period of extreme economic and social dislocation caused by crop failures and depression in the textile industries, especially linen. See Bleiber, Helmut, Zwischen Reform und Revolution: Lage und Kämpfe der schlesischen Bauern und Landarbeiter in Vormärz 1840–1847 (Berlin, 1966)Google Scholar.

⁸ Prussia, Statistisches Landesamt, Preussische Statistik, Vols. 48A and 188; Rogmann, Bevölkerungsentwicklung, pp. 51–72.

⁹ Tabarrah, Riad, “Toward a Theory of Demographic Development,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 19 (Jan. 1971), 257–276CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Wrigley, E. A., Industrial Growth and Population Change: A Regional Study of the Coal Field Areas of Northwest Europe in the Later Nineteenth Century (Cambridge, England, 1961), ch. 7Google Scholar.

¹⁰ A comprehensive treatment of fertility in Germany in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries may be found in Knodel, John, The Fertility Decline in Germany, 1871–1939 (Princeton, 1974)Google Scholar. Ethnic differentials are discussed on pp. 141–146.

¹¹ Haines, “Economic-Demographic Interrelations,” pp. 21–22.

¹² That is, (36.13–22.47)/(36.13–21.52)= .935.

¹³ Age distributions for 1849, 1875, and 1910:

¹⁴ The census of 1875 provided the most detailed age data for Kreise.

¹⁵ Sex ratios (males per 100 females) were generally higher in the industrial region than in the agrarian region, especially in the ages 15–59. For example, in 1871, the sex ratio for ages 20–29 was 102 for the industrial area, versus only 77 for the agrarian region (where there was differential net out-migration of males); Preussische Statistik, Bd. 30.

¹⁶ The functions in Table 3 are defined as follows:

l_x = population surviving to exact age x (i.e., beginning of an age interval) of 100,000 born to a “synthetic” cohort.

^oe_x = expectation of life at exact age x.

_nq_x = probability of dying between exact age x and age x + n (i.e., during an age interval) = 1 − (l_x + _n/l_x.

The abridged life tables which produced these functions were computed by translating the actual central death rates (_nM_x) for each quinquennial age group to _nq_x functions using the Reed-Merrell method, except for the first year of age. In this age interval,, infant deaths were related to the births which were at risk. The other life table functions were computed using standard techniques except for L_o and ₄L₁, which required the estimation of separation factors. See Shryock, Henry S. et al. , The Methods and Materials of Demography, Vol. II (Wash., D.C., 1971), chs. 14 and 15 and Appendix B for the methodologyGoogle Scholar.

¹⁷ Infant mortality rates for Europe during the period 1906/08 were Oppeln: 201; Germany: 176; Austria: 202; European Russia: 272; England and Wales: 121; France: 143; Norway: 67. Current IMR's for developing nations range from about 30 to over 100, often lower than in Europe about 70 years before. See Germany, Statistisches Reichsamt, Vierteljahresheft zur Statistik des deutschen Reichs, 1910; United Nations, Demographic Yearbook, 1973.

¹⁸ Wrigley, Population and History, p. 169.

¹⁹ This is true for some contemporary populations. Wray, Joe D., “Population Pressure on Families: Family Size and Child Spacing,” in National Academy of Sciences, Rapid Population Growth (Baltimore, 1971), pp. 409–418Google Scholar.

²⁰ Stolnitz, George, “A Century of International Mortality Trends, Part I,” Population Studies, 9 (July 1955), 32–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²¹ On public health in late nineteenth-century Germany, see Fischer, Alfons, Geschichte des deutschen Gesundheitwesens, Bd. II (Hildesheim, 1965), pp. 285–344Google Scholar.

²² Wrigley, Population and History, p. 170.

²³ McKeown, Thomas and Record, R. G., “Reasons for the Decline of Mortality in England and Wales During the Nineteenth Century,” Population Studies, 16 (Nov. 1962), 84–122CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁴ The declines were 7 percent and 2 percent respectively. The results for the two regions were broadly similar and are therefore not presented.

²⁵ McKeown, Thomas, Brown, R. G. and Record, R. G., “An Interpretation of the Modern Rise of Population in Europe,” Population Studies, 26 (Nov. 1972), 345–382CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Omran, Abdel R., “The Epidemiological Transition: A Study of the Epidemiology of Population Change,” Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 49 (Oct. 1971), 509–538CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁶ The decline in rural population growth in fact understated the fall in agricultural population growth. Agricultural population actually declined at an annual rate of 0.6 percent per annum between 1882 and 1895 and 0.5 percent per annum between 1895 and 1907. Earlier data on agricultural labor force are, unfortunately, not available. In 1882, the agricultural population was 75 percent of the rural population; and agriculture was the dominant rural economic activity, especially after the disappearance of the handicraft linen industry in the German-speaking areas in the 1840's and after the decline of rural charcoal iron smelting in the Polish-speaking areas after 1860. By 1880, charcoal smelting accounted for only 0.3 percent of all iron produced in Oppeln.

²⁷ Davis, Kingsley, “The Theory of Change and Response in Modern Demographic History,” Population Index, 29 (Oct. 1963), 345–366Google Scholar.

²⁸ Friedlander, Dov, “Demographic Responses and Population Change,” Demography, 6 (Nov. 1969), 354–381CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁹ Schofer, Lawrence, “The Formation of a Modern Industrial Working Force: The Case of Upper Silesia, 1870–1914” (Ph.D. Dissertation, University of California at Berkeley, 1970), p. 69Google Scholar.

³⁰ Preussische Statistik, Bd. 30, p. 32; Bd. 206, Teil I, p. 297.

³¹ The Prussian census of 1900 indicates that of the 208,439 persons born in Oppeln but living elsewhere in Germany, 50 percent were living in adjacent Lower Silesia (Regierungsbezirke Breslau and Liegnitz); Statistisches Landesamt, Preussische Statistik, Bd. 177, Teil II (1902/03), p. 26. This might be expected, since there was considerable industrial and commercial growth in some areas of Lower Silesia (e.g., the cities of Breslau and Görlitz), and also since most internal migration tends to be for short distances. See Lee, Everett, “A Theory of Migration,” Demography, 3 [1966], 48CrossRefGoogle Scholar). Of the remaining 50 percent of the migrants, 80 percent went to industrializing areas around Berlin/Brandenburg and in Westphalia, Rhineland, and Saxony. Furthermore, agricultural employment declined absolutely in these destinations during the late nineteenth century, indicating that agricultural employment was not attracting migrants. (The agricultural population, including fanners, dependents, servants, and laborers, declined 17.2 percent between 1882 and 1907 in Lower Silesia and by 12.5 percent in Brandenburg in the same period.)

³² Lee, “A Theory of Migration,” pp. 49–52.

³³ The data come mostly from the Zeitschrift für das Bergbau-Hütten- und Salinen-wesen im preussischen Staat and the various censuses of manufactures (Gewerbezählungen in 1861, 1875, 1882, 1895, and 1907) and of occupations (Berufszählungen in 1882, 1895, and 1907).

³⁴ Real wages are given only at distinct dates, rather than in quinquennia, because agricultural wages were available only at those dates. Non-agricultural wages were available annually after 1871, and an examination of five year averages in real wages from these annual data confirms a consistent upward trend. Some stagnation during the 1870's and after 1901/05 is also indicated.

³⁵ There is considerable evidence of improved agricultural incomes after about 1890, but the period 1860–1890 was definitely one of flux. Arable land virtually ceased growing after the early 1860's and yields did not begin to rise sharply until after about 1890. In addition, there was a slump in grain prices from the early 1870's up to the mid 1900's, caused by international competitive pressures and technical change in ocean and land transport. Agricultural population was declining, at least after 1882, and so it is not clear whether the reduction in numbers of farmers and farm laborers more than compensated for the reduction in income caused by reduced prices and stagnant yields. See Haines, “Economic-Demographic Interrelations,” ch. 5.

³⁶ Desai, Ashok V., Real Wages in Germany, 1871–1913 (Oxford, 1968), pp. 19–33Google Scholar, 117.

³⁷ A more detailed version of the present paper, containing the full results, may be obtained from the author on request.

³⁸ See Coale, Ansley J., “Factors Associated with the Development of Low Fertility: An Historic Summary,” in United Nations, World Population Conference: 1965, II (New York, 1967), 205–209Google Scholar.

³⁹ The small sample properties of adjusted R-square values as well as for F- and t-ratios are not known for two stage least squares estimates.