Hostname: page-component-788cddb947-jbkpb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-10-09T17:18:34.351Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 July 2012

Bruno S. Frey
Affiliation:
Bruno S. Frey is Professor and Marcel Kucher is Research Associate at the Institute of Empirical Economic Research, University of Zurich, Blümlisalpstrasse 10, CH-8006 Zürich, Switzerland. Email: bsfrey@iew.unizh.ch.
Marcel Kucher
Affiliation:
Bruno S. Frey is Professor and Marcel Kucher is Research Associate at the Institute of Empirical Economic Research, University of Zurich, Blümlisalpstrasse 10, CH-8006 Zürich, Switzerland. Email: bsfrey@iew.unizh.ch.

Extract

Historical events are reflected in asset prices. We analyze movements in the price of bonds issued by five European governments and traded on the Swiss bourse between 1928 and 1948, with special attention to the war years. Some war events that are generally considered crucial are clearly reflected in government bond prices. This holds, in particular, for the official outbreak of the war and changes in national sovereignty. But other events to which historians attach great importance are not reflected in bond prices, most prominently Germany's capitulation in 1945.

Type
Symposium: High Politics and Low Finance
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 2000

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Banerjee, Anindya, Lumsdaine, Robin L., and Stock, James H.. “Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence”. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10, no. 3 (1992): 271–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boelcke, Will A. Die Kosten von Hitlers Krieg. Kriegsfinanzierung und finanzielles Kriegserbe in Deutschland 1933–1948. Paderborn: Schoningh, 1985.Google Scholar
Campbell, John Y., Lo, Andrew W., and MacKinlay, Craig A.. The Econometrics of Financial Markets. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crettol, Vincent, and Halbeisen, Patrick. Die währungspolitischen Hintergründe der Goldtransaktionen der Schweizerischen Nationalbank im Zweiten Weltkrieg. Zürich: Schweizerische Nationalbank, 1999.Google Scholar
De, Bondt Werner, and Thaler, Richard. “Does the Stock Market Overreact?Journal of Finance 40, no. 3 (1985): 793805.Google Scholar
Duffie, Darrell. Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996.Google Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry, and Portes, Richard. “Debt and Default in the 1930s: Causes and Consequences.” European Economic Review 30, no. 3 (1986): 599640.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erbe, René. Die nationalsozialistische Wirtschaftspolitik 1933–1939 im Lichte der modernen Theorie. Zurich: Polygraphischer Verlag, 1958.Google Scholar
Fama, Eugene F. “Efficient Capital Markets: II.” Journal of Finance 46, no. 5 (1991): 1575–617.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Federau, Fritz. Der Zweite Weltkrieg. Seine Finanzierung in Deutschland. Tubingen: Wunderlich, 1962.Google Scholar
Fischer, Wolfram. Die Wirtschaftspolitik des Nationalsozialismus. Lüneburg: Landeszentrale für Politische Bildung, 1961.Google Scholar
Forsythe, Robert, Nelson, Forrest, Neumann, George R., and Wright, Jack. “Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market”. American Economic Review 82, no. 5 (1992): 1142–61.Google Scholar
Hardach, Gerd. Der Marshall-Plan: Auslandshilfe und Wiederaufbau in Westdeutschland 1948–1952. München: dtv wissenschaft, 1994.Google Scholar
Henschy, , Reg. Freedom at Midnight: Austria 1938–55: A Story of the Traumatic Years of Occupation. Worcester: Billings and Son, 1989.Google Scholar
Jost, Hans-Ulrich. Politik und Wirtschaft im Krieg: die Schweiz, 1938–1948. Zurich: Chronos, 1998.Google Scholar
Köllner, Lutz. Militär und Finanzen. Zur Finanzgeschichte und Finanzsoziologie der Militärausgaben in Deutschland. München: Bernard und Graefe, 1982.Google Scholar
Kozicki, Henry, ed. Developments in Modern Historiography. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1993.Google Scholar
Milward, Alan S. War, Economy and Society. London: Penguin, 1977.Google Scholar
Moos, Herbert von. Das grosse Weltgeschehen. Bern: Hallwag, 1940-1945.Google Scholar
Parrish, Scott D., and Narinsky, Mikhail M.. New Evidence on the Soviet Rejection of the Marshall Plan. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 1994.Google Scholar
Perron, Pierre. “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis”. Econometrica 57, no. 6 (1989): 1361–401.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Salis, Jean R. de. Eine Chronik des zweiten Weltkriegs. Zürich: Orell Fuessli, 1981.Google Scholar
Schwab, Hubert. “Der Schweizerische Effektenmarkt 1936–1946”. Dissertation, University of Zürich, 1948.Google Scholar
Smith, Vernon L. “Markets as Economizers of Information: Experimental Examination of the ‘Hayek Hypothesis’”. Economic Inquiry 20, no. 2 (1982): 165–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sobel, Russel S.Exchange Rate Evidence on the Effectiveness of United Nations Policy”. Public Choice 95 (1998): 125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Switzerland. National Bank. Monatsberichte der Schweizerischen Nationalbank. Bern: Schweizerischen Nationalbank, 01 192901 1949.Google Scholar
Urner, Klaus. Die Schweiz muss noch geschluckt werden. Zürich: Verlag Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 1990.Google Scholar
Weinberg, Gerhard L. A World at Arms: A Global History of World War II. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1994.Google Scholar
Willard, Kristen L., Guinnane, Timothy W., and Rosen, Harvey S.. “Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market”. American Economic Review 86, no. 4 (1996): 1001–18.Google Scholar
Wirtschaftslage, Die. Beilage zum Monatsbericht der Schweizerischen Nationalbank. Zürich: Schweizerische Nationalbank, 1953, 1954.Google Scholar