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External Threats and Public Opinion: The East Asian Security Environment and Japanese Views on the Nuclear Option

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 February 2023

Naoko Matsumura Open the ORCID record for Naoko Matsumura [Opens in a new window] ,
Atsushi Tago  and
Joseph M. Grieco
Naoko Matsumura*
Affiliation:
Graduate School of Law, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan
Atsushi Tago
Affiliation:
School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan and Peace Research Institute Oslo, Norway
Joseph M. Grieco
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
*
*Corresponding author. Email: matsumura@people.kobe-u.ac.jp
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Abstract

The Japanese public has been assumed to possess a deeply ingrained aversion toward the acquisition of nuclear weapons. We employ a survey experiment to ascertain whether this aversion is unconditional or may erode in the face of hypothetical deterioration in Japan's security situation, and in particular a hypothetical withdrawal of the US security-nuclear umbrella, increased North Korean nuclear weapons testing activities, and movement by South Korea toward the attainment of a nuclear arsenal. We find that the Japanese nuclear aversion may come under stress in the face of such developments. Additionally, we find that the elasticity of Japanese attitudes with respect to the nuclear option in the face of external security deterioration may be associated with an important individual-level demographic characteristic, namely, gender.

Keywords

security environmentnuclear weaponsnuclear aversionJapansurvey experiment
Type
Article
Information
Journal of East Asian Studies , Volume 23 , Issue 1 , March 2023 , pp. 23 - 44
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Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the East Asia Institute

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