Mounting evidence continues to suggest that people value changes in terms of a neutral reference state and that those in the domain of losses are commonly valued far more than those in the gains. Consequently, both negative and positive changes in the domain of losses, including mitigation of losses such as restoring environmental quality and reducing accident rates, may be more accurately valued with the minimum acceptable-compensation (WTA) measure, those in the domain of gains are more accurate with the maximum willingness-to-pay (WTP) measure. Current practice, that assumes equivalence and that all positive changes are considered as gains, is therefore likely to often seriously mislead.

This paper discusses some institutional and procedural designs that can strengthen CBA as a decision making tool within the public sector. Our discussion is based on Chile's National Public Investment System (SNI) the earliest and most consolidated investment appraisal system in Latin America. The objective of Chile's SNI is to provide a coherent framework for identifying, coordinating, evaluating and implementing public investments. Chile's SNI has several interesting institutional characteristics. For example, it standardizes project presentation formats, establishes explicit application and evaluation processes for public funds, provides general as well as sector specific methodological guidelines for CBA of projects and programs, and introduces a system of “checks and balances” by separating the institution that evaluates projects from the institutions promoting projects. Besides describing the system and highlighting the features we believe strengthen the use of project appraisal as a decision making tool. The paper also presents data on the number of projects appraised by sector, the overall results of appraisals and other administrative data, as well as a summary of ex-post studies for a sample of road, rural electricity, education and health projects. Unfortunately, the limited data available and the lack of a proper counterfactual scenario do not allow for strong conclusions to be made regarding the performance of the system. However, the data presented serves as an illustration of the Chilean system and it may be of value to researches in this field as well as to policymakers in other countries wishing to improve their public investment systems.

This paper reviews the theory underlying the concept of the social opportunity cost of labor (SOCL), as that concept is used in benefit-cost analysis and in applied welfare economics generally. It then presents in detail the procedures to be followed in estimating the SOCL in real-world cases. Important steps in data processing include calculating gross and net wages from data on “reported” wages. Further economic analysis involves taking account of migration patterns and of labor market duality. Estimates are made for 32 labor market areas in Mexico, covering 21 occupations for males and 19 for females.

Our main results are a) that there are important differences between reported wages and the gross wages paid by employers, and also between both of these and the net wages received by workers, and b) that taking labor market duality into account leads to significant modifications of our SOCL estimates. More important, perhaps, than our specific estimates for Mexico, is the methodological framework that we use. This framework, based on the fundamental principles of applied welfare economics, can serve as a useful starting point for serious estimation of the SOCL for other countries.

Since the seminal contribution of Haveman and Krutilla(1968), the subject of the potential drawdown from the pool of unemployed versus diversion of labor from existing employments consequent upon a public investment project has been largely neglected in the BCA literature. The advent of a new BLS series on job vacancies now permits direct estimation of the crucial unemployment-vacancies (U-V) relationship, as compared to the ad hoc sine function using the unemployment rate assumed by Haveman and Krutilla. The probability p of a worker being drawn from the pool of unemployed is recast as a function of the job vacancy rate (vacancies/labor force) and shows higher values than Haveman and Krutilla at comparable rates of unemployment. At the height of the 2008-09 Great Recession, about half of Stimulus induced jobs were drawn from the pool of unemployed.

The debate about the effectiveness of investments in public infrastructure initiated by Aschauer suggests that there may be substantial discrepancies between the results of conventional cost-benefit analysis and the ultimate effects of such investments on welfare. This paper takes a closer look at this issue by investigating the existence of secondary or indirect effects under conditions of monopolistic competition. We find that such effects will in general exist, and that they are potentially large, but that they can also be negative, depending on the specification of the model. With linear demand curves, indirect effects can be positive, zero or negative, with Dixit-Stiglitz they are always nonnegative and closely related to the taste for diversity, while with the logit model they are always identically zero. Free entry reinforces the positive indirect effects in the Dixit-Stiglitz model, and causes negative indirect effects in the logit model. Given this variety of results, robust empirical measurement of the indirect effects appears to be difficult.

There are many reasons to suspect that benefit-cost analysis applied to environmental policies will result in policy decisions that will reject those environmental policies. The important question, of course, is whether those rejections are based on proper science. The present paper explores sources of bias in the methods used to evaluate environmental policy in the United States, although most of the arguments translate immediately to decision-making in other countries. There are some “big picture” considerations that have gone unrecognized, and there are numerous more minor, yet cumulatively important, technical details that point to potentially large biases against acceptance on benefit-cost grounds of environmental policies that have true marginal benefits greater than true marginal costs, both in net present value terms. It is hoped that the issues raised here will improve future conduct of benefit-cost analyses of environmental policies.

The Potential Pareto criterion, or Kaldor-Hicks standard, presumes that costs are not fully compensated. Yet, uncompensated costs can incentivize costly political activity and create uncertainty about political outcomes. These consequences are not reckoned in the standard benefit-cost analysis. This study models political costs and uncertainty as a function of project parameters and political-institutional characteristics. The economic consequences of political behavior are then incorporated into an adjusted project evaluation standard. This standard assures that the project’s conventionally measured net benefits are sufficient to cover political costs and uncertainty about the decision-making outcome.

Canteen Takeaway is a novel concept, which entails workplace canteens to utilise existing production capacity to supply packaged meals for employees to bring home. The concept has a potential to raise the average nutritional quality of employees’ diets. The purpose of the study is to assess the economic net gains for users, and for society as a whole, of promoting healthy canteen takeaway meals, using Danish workplaces as an example. The analytical framework for the study combines direct cost analyses, users’ willingness to pay estimated through a choice experiment and cost-of-illness methods to assess the net society costs and benefits associated with an extended use of canteen takeaway meals as a health promotion strategy. The results show that employees have a positive willingness to pay for health attributes in canteen takeaway meals, but with a minority having a highly negative willingness to pay for the canteen takeaway concept. The potential health effects of a healthy canteen takeaway programme are estimated to be positive, but modest in magnitude. The estimated costs of providing healthy canteen takeaway meals exceed the sum of average direct and indirect benefits. In conclusion, healthy CTA programmes seems to be an economically sustainable intervention at some workplaces, though the analysis does not fully support a full-scale implementation of healthy CTA programmes at Danish workplaces from a welfare economic perspective.

Benefit-cost analysis (BCA) is used to optimize investment in public projects. Indeed, in many countries, BCA is mandatory for provision of most public services. However, once BCA is mandated, residents can strategically alter their behaviors based on a dynamic inconsistency that the BCA-based optimal service level depends on residents’ behaviors. This paper discusses this dynamic inconsistency problem, taking transportation services as an example. We show that the problem may decrease both social welfare and the utility of residents as compared with the first-best case, and that the occurrence of second-best outcomes depends on the reversibility of the project and the general-equilibrium interdependency with another project.

The possibility of preference reversals according to the Kaldor-Hicks (KH) criterion in benefit-cost analysis has concerned economists since Scitovsky (1941) first published his results. Lawyers and philosophers have argued that the potential of reversals calls the use of benefit-cost analysis into question, implying elimination of its use. We demonstrate that reversals occur only with inferior goods in the case of static production possibilities and that reversals occur under changing production possibilities only when production possibilities frontiers cross, which is a myopic characterization that ignores practical cases of global production possibilities.

When a non-market good has existence value, the assumption of weak complementarity cannot be used to determine willingness to pay for that good. However, when this assumption is weakened, it is possible to place an upper bound on marginal willingness to pay even when the non-market good has existence value, and thereby, an upper bound on willingness to pay for changes in consumption of non-market goods can be established. Moreover, this upper bound may be relatively easy to compute.

The use of wage differential techniques to estimate the value of a statistical life (VSL) leads to the conclusion that willingness to pay for risk reduction increases with income. However, the use of this result in policy-relevant calculations, such as benefit-cost analysis, has led to criticism among ethicists and the lay public, at the same time as it has been defended in the economic literature. In this paper, we argue that differential valuation measures not a differential value that individuals place upon their own lives, but a differential value that they place upon marginal economic resources. Using two sets of VSL estimates from metastudies, we provide an initial estimate of the relative marginal value of income, allowing interpersonal comparison at the societal level. With these results, we propose an empirically determined, ethically justifiable social welfare function that can be easily incorporated into benefit-cost analysis and that has important implications for development economics, although more work is necessary to provide a robust estimate.

This study estimates the cost of the Vietnam draft by applying hedonic methods to the decision to attend college and the decision to voluntarily enlist. In 2009 dollars, the estimated cost of the draft is roughly $115,000 for the marginal military recruit. For the marginal college student, the estimated cost is only $30,000 and probably understates the true amount because men were credit-constrained and college required an upfront cost. Supposing that the costs other than fatality risk were positive, our preferred specifications produce an upper bound on the Value of a Statistical Life ranging from $7 million to $12 million.

Strategic inquiries into coal mining by Australian Governments advocate increased use of comprehensive benefit cost analyses and nonmarket valuation studies when assessing individual project proposals. The study reported in this paper addresses these Government concerns, by integrating results of a choice experiment into a benefit cost analysis undertaken for a Colliery in the Southern Coalfield of New South Wales, Australia. Results of the study were used to aid the State government in evaluating proposals for continued underground coal mining. We show that impacts of mine subsidence on streams, swamps, and Aboriginal sites negatively affect community wellbeing. Social welfare increases with the length of time that the mine provides direct employment. We demonstrate how implicit price estimates from the choice experiment can be incorporated into a benefit cost analysis of continued mining. Benefit cost analyses were carried out for a range of policy scenarios—including policies that would restrict mining activities at the Colliery and protect environmental and cultural features in the Southern Coalfield. Notwithstanding the environmental impacts generated by mining operations, continued mining is shown to be a more economically efficient course of action.

A growing body of benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) of early childhood programs has been prompted by the increased demand for results-based accountability when allocating public and private sector resources. While the BCAs of early childhood programs serve to make such investments more compelling, there are limitations in the current state of the art, including a lack of standardization in the BCA methods used, from discount rates to shadow prices. The objective of this paper is to delineate a set of standards for conducting BCAs of early childhood programs. The paper reviews the existing evidence of the economic returns from early childhood programs that serve children and families in the first five years of life, discusses the challenges that arise in applying the BCA methodology such programs, highlights the variation in current methods used, and proposes a set of standards for applying the BCA methodology to early childhood programs. The recommendations concern issues such as the discount rate to use and the age to which costs and benefits should be discounted; stakeholder disaggregation; outcomes to value, the associated values, and projections of future outcomes; accounting for uncertainty; sensitivity analysis; and reporting of results. The proposed standards can guide the choices that analysts need to make about the methods to use when performing BCAs for one or more early childhood programs and they can support greater transparency in the results the analysts provide. The standards can also support consumers of the BCA results in their need to understand the methods employed and the comparability across different studies.

Although contingent valuation methods are now frequently used to assess the total value of even distant events, benefit-cost analysis could also be informed by observed behavior that links distant events and consumers. It is typically the news media which connect passive consumers to distant events about which they may or may not take action. The information and adaptation costs incurred by the news consumer are privately beneficial, but additionally are shown to be a lower bound to social welfare losses from a socially defined “bad” event under plausible circumstances. The recent Deepwater Horizon well blow-out in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico is a current example which we seek to inform by study of the oil spill from the Valdez, Alaska spill in 1989. We identify an incremental willingness to pay for news about the Exxon Valdez spill above a standard news broadcast and an increased probability of viewing a broadcast related to the spill. We develop and explain how this private value associated with media consumption can be interpreted as a partial measure of social costs for passive viewers who take no further action beyond news viewing and likely represent the majority of affected citizens (though not necessarily the majority of social costs). Though the per-person values of passive users may be modest in magnitude in the present application, some passive use values appear to be measurable, and that it may well be worth pursuing further the search for the faint but observable links between behavior and distant events through the news media.

The present paper carries out a cost benefit analysis of centralized wastewater reuse systems in Beijing. This study consists of two parts: financial analysis and economic analysis. The financial analysis is made from the point of view of plant manager, in which financial benefits and cost is calculated. The economic analysis is made from the point of view of society, in which the economic, environmental and social benefits and cost are determined. The results of financial analysis show that the financial benefits are larger than cost, which means the centralized wastewater reuse systems are financially feasible. It implies that the investment on centralized wastewater reuse systems is profitable. The results of economic analysis show that the ratio of benefit to cost is larger than 1, which means the centralized wastewater reuse systems are economically feasible. It implies that centralized wastewater reuse systems have positive effects on the society. From the point of view of plant manager, centralized wastewater reuse systems could operate in a long term, while from the point of view of government or society, the centralized wastewater reuse systems are worth to be promoted.

The Tufts Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry (www.cearegistry.org) is a publicly available comprehensive database of cost-utility analyses of health interventions published in the peer-reviewed medical and public health literature. This article discusses the database structure, methodology of data extraction, current trends in cost-utility analyses and impact of the Registry.

Benefit-Cost analyses of social programs often involve complex interactions between market and non-market goods. In this paper we outline one conceptual framework for incorporating the general equilibrium effects into benefit-cost analyses of changes in social programs. The goal is to develop models that are capable of capturing the interactions that take place between decisions involving marketed goods together with their effects on non-market goods and the reverse –changes in non-market goods that cause induce changes in decisions about marketed goods. These types of feedback effects are likely to result from large changes in social programs. These effects are compounded by the potential for endogenous realized outcomes that arise as a result of household actions taken in response to proposed policies. To demonstrate the importance of our conceptual discussion of these general equilibrium effects, we present an empirical example of our general equilibrium framework using teacher cuts in response to budget pressures in Maricopa County, Arizona. We find substantial differences in willingness to pay measures between models which account for endogenous education outcomes in a general equilibrium setting and those which ignore the linkages between market (housing) and non-market (education) goods in a partial equilibrium setting

This paper presents an approach for studying the socio-economic benefits and costs (CBA) of the introduction of intensified management measures in forestry. Besides from valuation of changes in timber production, assessments of different types of externalities are included in the assessment. The model is exemplified with the use of data from a Swedish governmental study undertaken in 2009 which present impacts on the Swedish forest sector if intensified management measures are applied on environmentally low-valued land and abandoned agricultural lands. The CBA shows that intensified management measures typically are private financially profitable. If these measures also become profitable from the society’s point of view depend on the size of the external effects including carbon balance.