No CrossRef data available.
Article contents
Thirty Years on: Iran's “Silent Revolution”
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 01 January 2022
Abstract
2009 is the thirtieth anniversary of the Iranian Revolution. In 2006 the Bush administration ranked Iran as posing arguably the greatest single threat to America. And throughout 2008 that administration insisted all options were open in dealing with Iran, including preventative strikes. Yet, unlike its decisive intervention to establish Iran as a client state in the 1950s, the US has thus far been unable to force the changes it desires in and from Iran's leadership. This article argues that to help understand this situation it is important to recognize that the Iranian Revolution was and remains nurtured by a contemporaneous “silent revolution” in the international oil industry, even if the Ahmadinejad regime's economic policies especially threaten currently to squander some of the potential afforded by it.
- Type
- Articles
- Information
- Copyright
- Copyright © The International Society for Iranian Studies 2009
References
1 United States National Security Strategy (March 2006): 20, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2006/nss2006.pdf.
2 Reasons given for the 1946 crisis differ. See Daniel, Yergin, Shattered Peace: The Origins of the Cold War and the National Security State (Boston, 1977): 179Google Scholar; Pfau, R., “Containment in Iran, 1946: The Shift to an Active Policy,” Diplomatic History, 1 (1977): 359–372Google Scholar; Stephen, Ambrose, Rise to Globalism (London, 1971), 131Google Scholar; McFarland, S. L., “A Peripheral View of the Origins of the Cold War: The Crises in Iran, 1941–47,” Diplomatic History, 4 (1980): 351Google Scholar.
3 In 1954 the Eisenhower administration estimated that western Europe would be 90 percent dependent on Middle Eastern oil by 1975 and indefensible in the event of these supplies being lost. Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS) 1952–54, vol.10, NSC Staff study on certain problems relating to Iran, attached to Statement of Policy by the NSC, 2 January 1954: 881.
4 Louis, W. R., The British Empire in the Middle East, 1945–1951: Arab Nationalism, the United States and Postwar Imperialism (Oxford, 1984): 647Google Scholar. For more details see Anderson, I. H., ARAMCO, The United States, and Saudi Arabia. A Study of the Dynamics of Foreign Oil Policy 1933–50 (Princeton, 1981Google Scholar).
5 Steve, Marsh, Anglo-American Relations and Cold War Oil: Crisis in Iran (London, 2003Google Scholar); Mary, Heiss, Empire and Nationhood: The United States, Great Britain, and Iranian Oil, 1950–54 (New York, 1997)Google Scholar.
6 The Americans feared that British intervention in southern Iran would allow the Soviets to take reciprocal action, most probably in Azerbaijan, under a 1921 Treaty of Friendship with Iran that provided for their intervention if Iran were occupied by another power. For details of British planning see James, Cable, Intervention at Abadan: Plan Buccaneer (Basingstoke, 1991Google Scholar); Spellar, I., “A Splutter of Musketry? The British Military Response to the Anglo-Iranian Oil Dispute, 1951,” Contemporary British History, 17 (2003): 39–66Google Scholar.
7 The coup has attracted considerable attention over the years. See, for example, D. Wilber, Secret History, http://www.cryptome.org/cia-iran-all.htm; Gasiorowski, M., “The 1953 Coup D'Etat in Iran,” International Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 19 (1987): 268–269Google Scholar; Kermit, Roosevelt, Countercoup: The Struggle for the Control of Iran (New York, 1979Google Scholar); Behrooz, M., “Tudeh Factionalism and the 1953 Coup in Iran,” International Journal of Middle East Studies, 33 (2001): 363–382Google Scholar.
8 British National Archives (UKNA), FO 371/91529, Strang to Franks, 25 April 1951.
9 On 4 March 1953 Mosadeq responded to Ambassador Henderson's assertion that the US could not justify purchasing Iranian oil until Britain's outstanding claims were settled by arguing “You could tell them that you were saving Iran from Communism.” UKNA, FO 371/104614, FO to Washington, 7 March 1953.
10 British Petroleum Archives (BP) 91032, A. E. C. Drake to Snow, 9 December 1952.
11 United States National Archives (USNA), LM 73, reel 39, B.B. Jennings to McGhee, 17 May 1951; ibid., Standard Oil to McGhee, 18 May 1951; FRUS 1951, vol.5, memo of conversation by Funkhouser, 14 May 1951: 311. Fesharaki has argued that fear of further nationalization was the primary motive for the solidarity of the US companies with the AIOC. Fesharaki, F., Development of the Iranian Oil Industry: International and Domestic Aspects (New York, 1976), 45Google Scholar.
12 BP 91032, extracts minutes Cabinet Persia (Official) Committee 32nd meeting, 21 October 1952.
13 FRUS 1951, vol.5, Memorandum of conversation by Richard Funkhouser (Office of Near Eastern Affairs), “Discussion of AIOC Problem with US Oil Companies Operating in Middle East, 14 May 1951, 311.
14 Such was their fear of a bad precedent being set in Iran that the oil majors even served as a bulwark against any weakening of resolve to maintain the embargo by either the British or American governments. See Marsh, S., “Crude Diplomacy: Anglo-American Relations and Multinational Oil,” Journal of Contemporary British History, 21, no. 1 (2007): 25–54Google Scholar.
15 Steve, Marsh, Anglo-American Relations and Cold War Oil (London, 2003), 30Google Scholar.
16 James, Bamberg, The History of the British Petroleum Company. Vol.2. The Anglo Iranian Years (Cambridge, 1994), 511Google Scholar.
17 Harry S Truman Library (HST), PSF, report to the NSC by Secretary of State for the Interior and Petroleum Administrator for Defense, 8 December 1952, 10.
18 USNA, LM 73, reel 40, Eakins to Linder, 4 December 1952.
19 Marsh, Anglo-American Relations and Cold War Oil, 164–166.
20 Intensive lobbying by smaller American independent oil companies resulted in the US oil majors reducing their share to 7 percent each, leaving 5 percent to divide between nine independents, which created the Iricon Agency for this purpose. The agreement also awarded the AIOC £25 million compensation from Iran, £32.4 million from other consortium participants in the first year of operations and a further payment per ton of crude oil equivalent to £182 million. Bamberg, History of BP, 509.
21 Ferrier, R. W., “A Triangular Relationship,” in Musaddiq, Iranian Nationalism and Oil, ed. by W. R., Louis and J. A., Bill (London, 1988), 192Google Scholar.
22 Kobrin, S., “Diffusion as an Explanation of Oil Nationalization,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 29, no. 1 (1985): 13Google Scholar.
23 Nixon cited in “The Arab's Final Weapon,” Time Magazine, 17 September 1973, http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,907884-1,00.html.
24 Kobrin, “Diffusion as an Explanation of Oil Nationalization,” 17.
25 Anthony, Sampson, The Seven Sisters: The Great Oil Companies and the World They Shaped (New York, 1975Google Scholar).
26 Fiona, Venn, The Oil Crisis (Harlow, 2002), 37Google Scholar.
27 UKNA, FO 371/104615, P. E. Ramsbotham, “Persian Oil—Future Policy,” 14 April 1953; UKNA, POWE 33 1937, J. H. Brook to J. A. Beckett, u.d.
28 See, for example, Ikenberry, G. J., “The Irony of State Strength: Comparative Responses to the Oil Shocks in the 1970s,” International Organization, 40, no. 1 (1986): 105–137Google Scholar; Venn, The Oil Crisis; Roy, Licklider, Political Power and the Arab Oil Weapon: The Experience of Five Industrialized Nations (Los Angeles, 1988)Google Scholar.
29 Venn, The Oil Crisis, 124.
30 Fiona, Venn, Oil Diplomacy in the Twentieth Century (Basingstoke, 1986), 117Google Scholar; Dankwart, Rustow, Oil and Turmoil in the Middle East (New York, 1982), 99Google Scholar.
31 Vice President's Remarks to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 21 October 2007, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/10/20071021.html.
32 Henry Kissinger, op-ed in The Washington Post, “The Disaster of Hasty Withdrawal,” reprinted in full in the Congressional Record, 18 September 2007, http://www.govtrack.us/congress/record.xpd?id=110-s20070918-20.
33 “Iranian Leader Welcomes Obama Win,” 6 November 2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7713972.stm.
34 In 2006 oil export revenue accounted for almost half of the government's revenue, estimated at about $46.9 billion. Sands, D., “Analysis: Iran Moves to Ditch U.S. dollar,” 10 September 2007, http://www.upi.com/International_Security/Energy/Analysis/2007/09/10/analysis_iran_moves_to_ditch_us_dollar/6990/Google Scholar.
35 For details of the pipeline crisis see, for instance, Blinkin, A. J., Ally Versus Ally: America, Europe and the Siberian Pipeline Crisis (New York, 1987Google Scholar).
36 Ross, D., “The Middle East Predicament,” Foreign Affairs, 84, no.1 (2005): 61–74Google Scholar; Kapila, S., “Iran in the Strategic Matrix of Russia, China and India,” South Asia Analysis Group, paper no. 1284, 9 March 2005Google Scholar; Ahrari, E., “Iran, China and Russia: The Emerging anti-US nexus?,” Security Dialogue, 32, no. 4 (2001): 453–466Google Scholar; Pant, H., “The Moscow–Beijing–Delhi ‘Strategic Triangle’: An Idea Whose Time May Never Come,” Security Dialogue, 35, no. 3 (2004): 311–328Google Scholar.
37 Rogers, P., “Oil Security and the Iraq War,” May 2006, http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.ukGoogle Scholar.
38 See, for example, Boghrati, N., “Iran's Oil Bourse: A Threat to the U.S. Economy?,” Worldpress.org, 11 April 2006Google Scholar,
39 Clark, W., “Petrodollar Warfare: Dollars, Euros and the Upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse,” 2 August 2005, http://www.energybulletin.net/7707.htmlGoogle Scholar.
40 Persian Gulf region, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Persian_Gulf/Background.html.
41 Estimates of Russia's oil and gas reserves differ significantly owing to data difficulties and new finds and relativities in global reserves. For instance, Proedrou cites figures suggesting Russia holds 10 percent of global oil reserves rather than Bahgat's 6 percent. Nevertheless, under-investment in its energy infrastructure threatens Russia's ability to meet rising domestic energy demands as well as overseas contracts. Hanson also suggests that the draft Russian energy strategy to 2030 “indicates a real problem that Russian production capacity in gas may be insufficient to meet growing domestic and European demand for Russian gas.” Proedrou, F., “The EU–Russia Energy Approach under the Prism of Interdependence,” European Security, 16, no. 3–4 (2007): 334Google Scholar; Bahgat, G., “Europe's Energy Security: Challenges and Opportunities,” International Affairs, 82, no. 5 (2006): 961–975Google Scholar; Hanson, P., “Russia and Europe are Doomed to Cooperate,” Russia in Global Affairs, no. 1 (2008): np, http://www.eng.globalaffairs.ru/printver/1179.htmlGoogle Scholar.
42 R. W. Tillerson (Chairman and CEO, Exxon Mobil Corporation), “Building Bridges of Energy Understanding,” University of Texas’ Strauss Center for International Security, 3 October 2007, http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/news_speeches_20071003_rwt.aspx.
43 Hirsch, R. L., Bezdek, R. and Wendling, R., “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Assessment,” February 2005: 27. Available at http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdfCrossRefGoogle Scholar
44 Hirsch et al., “Peaking of World Oil Production,” 30.
45 Cited by Russell, A., “Iran Threatens to Disrupt Gulf Oil Shipments,” 14 June 2006, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/06/05/wiran05.xmlGoogle Scholar.
46 Berman cited in Cohen, A., Phillips, J. and Schirano, W., “Countering Iran's Oil Weapon,” Backgrounder #1982, 13 November 2006, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Iran/bg1982.cfmGoogle Scholar.
47 The IEA estimates that the total government and industry stocks of crude oil and refined products held by its member states amounts to about 4 billion barrels. If markets do not settle from a disruption in Iranian supply, there are reserves available to cover the shortfall for a reasonable period.
48 Hoyos, C., “The New Seven Sisters,” Financial Times, 11 March 2007Google Scholar.
49 See, for example, Carafano, J. J. and Cohen, A., “If Iran Provokes an Energy Crisis: Modelling the Problem in a War Game,” 25 July 2007, available at http://www.heritage.org/Research/EnergyGoogle Scholar and Environmnet/CDA07-03.cfm.
50 This is reflected in growing debate about alternative development models provided by capitalist authoritarian states. For instance, Gat argues that states such as China and Russia “may represent a viable alternative path to modernity, which in turn suggests that there is nothing inevitable about liberal democracy's ultimate victory—or future dominance.” Others argue that such views are based “almost entirely on a spurious correlation between autocracy and expansion.” Gat, A., “The Return of Authoritarian Great Powers,” Foreign Affairs, 86, no. 4 (2007): accessed online from http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070701faessay86405/azar-gat/the-return-of-authoritarian-great-powers.htmlGoogle Scholar; McFaul, M. and Stoner-Weiss, K., “The Myth of the Authoritarian Model: How Putin's Crackdown Holds Russia Back”, Foreign Affairs, 87:1 (2008): accessed online from http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20080101faessay87105-p0/michael-mcfaul-kathryn-stoner-weiss/the-myth-of-the-authoritarian-model.html.Google Scholar
51 “French Firm Quits Iran Gas Deal,” BBC News, 10 July 2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7498902.stm; “Statoil to Stop Investing in Ira,” BBC News, 1 August 2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7537132.stm.
52 “Russia, Iran and Qatar Discuss Gas Cartel,” International Herald Tribune, 21 October 2008, http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/10/21/business/ML-Iran-Gas-Cartel.php?pass=true.