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Iran's “Twenty-Year Vision Document”: An Outlook on Science and Technology

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Monir Sadat Madarshahi
Monir Sadat Madarshahi*
Affiliation:
Tehran University, Institute of Islamic Studies, McGill University
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Abstract

In 2005, Iran outlined its goals in economic, science and technology for the next twenty years, Sanad-e- Cheshm Andaz-e Bist Saleh (The Twenty-Year Vision Document), a working plan to raise the country's ranking to that of the first in the region. This article aims to map Iran's scientific and technological performance over five years since the ratification of the plan. Three main areas of science and technology—the percentage of GDP invested in knowledge, scientific performance and technological performance—were used to compare Iran's scientific output with a set of regional countries. The study revealed that Iran's investment in science to inspire technology (the linear model) has been able to nourish scientific performance in the form of rising publication, whereas the neighboring countries followed a more diversified pathway and inspired science from technological advances. Thus, the number of countries in the region capable of competing with and even outstripping Iran in terms of technological and hence scientific performance has increased.

Type
Articles
Information
Iranian Studies , Volume 45 , Issue 5 , September 2012 , pp. 619 - 643
Copyright
Copyright © The International Society for Iranian Studies 2012

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Footnotes

Prior to that, she spent a year at the Centre for Studies in Science Policy, Jawaharlal Nehru University, India. She has been working at the office of International Scientific Cooperation, secretariat of the Iran's Supreme Council of Science and was representative to United Nations Transfer of Knowledge Program (UNDAF).

References

1 Unlike classical and neoclassical growth theory, new growth theories hold that the new technologies and increasing returns that resulted from the new knowledge advantages are the engine of economic growth. This idea has been developed by theorists like Cortright, Joseph (New Growth Theory, Technology and Learning: A Practitioner's Guide (Washington, 2001))Google Scholar and the real examples were countries which came to be called the Asian Tigers in the 1990s. For further information see: Cozzens, Susan E. et al., “Knowledge and Development,” in The Handbook of Science and Technology Studies, ed. Hachett, Edward J. et al., vol. 5 (Cambridge, 2007), 791Google Scholar.

2 The fourth five-year development plan (4th FDP) of Iran covering 2004–09.

3 Iran Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution, Arzyabi-ye ‘elm va Fanavari dar Jomhuri-ye Islami-ye Iran: Avvalin Arzyabi-ye kalan [S&T Assessment in the Islamic Republic of Iran: The First Macro Assessment Program] (Tehran, 2003, equivalent to 1382 Iranian Calendar). Iran Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution, Arzyabi-ye ‘elm va Fanavari dar Jomhuri-ye Islami-ye Iran: Dovvomin Barnameh-ye Arzyabi-ye keshvari [S&T Assessment in the Islamic Republic of Iran: The Second Macro Assessment Program] (Tehran, 2005). Iran Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution, Arzyabi-ye ‘elm va Fanavari dar Jomhuri-ye Islami-ye Iran: Sevomin Arzyabi-ye kalan (Tehran, 2007)Google Scholar.

4 Garcia-Rio, F. et al., “A Bibliometric Evaluation of European Union Research of the Respirator System from 1987–1998,” European Respiratory Journal, 17 (2001): 1175–80CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

5 Science-Metrix 2010, 30 Years in Science: Secular Movements in Knowledge Creation (Montreal and Alexandria, VA, 2010). Available online at: www.science-metrix.com/30years-Data.htm (accessed 25 July 2012). Also see May, Robert M., “The Scientific Wealth of Nations,” Science, 275, no. 5301 (7 February 1997): 793–96CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and assessment reports provided by Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution of Iran in 2003 and 2005.

6 King, David A., “The Scientific Impact of Nations: What Different Countries get for their Research Spending,” Nature, vol. 230 (15 July 2004): 311CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

7 Ibid.

8 D'Este, Pablo and Neely, Andy, “Science and Technology in the UK,” Creating Wealth from Knowledge: Meeting the Innovation Challenge (Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA, 2008)Google Scholar.

9 Despite the limitations, these indicators represent a reliable source of data for measuring S&T activities.

10 GERD (Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D) is the total expenditure on R&D performed by different contributor sectors or on the national level. The contribution of foreign investment in Iran is insignificant due to the problem of sanctions and it is not considered in this study due to lack of statistics.

11 Chief Scientist, “The Chance to Change,” Discussion Paper (Commonwealth of Australia, August 2000). See also “The Chance to Change: Final Report” (Commonwealth of Australia, November 2000).

12 Concepcion Wilson, S. and Osareh, Farideh, “Science and Research in Iran: A Scientometric Study,” Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, 28, no. 1 (2003): 26CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

13 See Iran, “Fourth Five-Year Development Plan” (2004–09), part 1, chapter 4.

14 UNESCO Statistical tables, Regional totals for R&D Expenditure (GERD) and Researches, 2002, 2007 and 2009.

15 UNESCO, UIC Data Center, http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/document.aspx?ReportId=143&IF_Language=eng (accessed 25 July 2012).

16 United Nations Statistical Yearbook (Fifty-second issue). Iran BERD was 18.6 percent of GERD. GOERD was 74.7 percent of GERD for 2002 and HERD was 6.7 percent of GERD for 2002.

17 The New Industrial Policy announced in 1991, which is believed to be a turning point in India's protectionist policies since independence, changed the science and technology perspective in this country. Krishna, V.V., “Science, Technology and Policy Changes in India,” Science, Technology and Society, 1, no. 1 (1996): 133CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

18 UNESCO Science Report 2010. Statistical annex (2010): 488–89.

19 Dominique Guellec and Bruno Van Pottelsberghe, “The Impact of Public R&D Expenditure on Business R&D,” OECD, STI Working Papers (Paris, 2000/4): 5 and 8, http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=DSTI/DOC(2000)4&docLanguage=En.

20 OECD, The Measurement of Scientific and Technical Activities 1993: Standard Practice for Surveys of Research and Experimental Development – Frascati Manual (Paris, 1994)Google Scholar; cited in ibid, 8.

21 OECD, The Measurement of Scientific and Technical Activities 1993.

22 This is mentioned in the authentic text of the Recommendation duly adopted by the General Conference of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization during its twentieth session, which was held in Paris and declared closed, on 28 November 1978. http://portal.unesco.org/en/ev.php-URL_ID=13135&URL_DO=DO_PRINTPAGE&URL_SECTION=201.html.

23 UNESCO Science Report for 2010, section 16, p. 351.

24 UNESCO, UIS Data Center.

25 UNESCO Science Report 2010, 370–73. Processing and transforming the research results into products take less time for the business sector.

26 Government helps certain types of technologies or projects and prioritizes them despite being inferior in the market. For further information see: Guellec and Van Pottelsberghe, “The Impact of Public R&D Expenditure”.

27 Link, Albert N., Public/Private Partnerships: Innovation Strategies and Policy Alternatives (New York, 2006)Google Scholar. See also Link, Albert N. and Scott, John T., Public Accountability: Evaluating Technology-Based Institutions (Norwell, MA, 1998)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Link, Albert N. and Scott, John T., Evaluating Public Research Institutions: The U.S Advanced Technology Program's Intramural Research Initiative (London, 2005)Google Scholar.

28 Link, Albert N. and Siegel, Donald S., Innovation, Entrepreneurship, and Technological Change (New York, 2007), 31–32CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

29 Ibid.

30 NSF, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06; cited in D'Este and Neely, “Science and Technology in the UK,” 34. The number of papers increased to 76,000 in 2008 (NSF, Science and Engineering Indicators 2010, 9).

31 National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators 2010 (Arlington, VA, 2010), http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind10/appendix.htm. See also Thomson Reuters, Science citation Index (SCI) and Social Science Citation Index (SSCI), http://thomsonreuters.com/products_services/science.

32 Ibid.

33 ISI Web of Knowledge 2010. Essential Science Indicators from the 1 September 2006 update covering a ten-year plus six-month period, January 1996–30 June 2006. Iran was globally ranked 49th for citations, 135 for citations per paper and 42 for the number of papers. http://in-cites.com/countries/iran2006.html.

34 ISI Web of Knowledge. Essential Science Indicators 2006. http://esi.isiknowledge.com/rankdatapage.cgi

35 ISI Web of Knowledge 2010. Essential Science Indicators. http://esi.isiknowledge.com/rankdatapage.cgi

36 Iran citations for the period 2002–06 are 34,775 and for the period 2006–10 they are 135,768. Citations per paper for the same period are 1.83 and 2.48 respectively. For Turkey the number of citations are 118,712 and 236,678, with citations per paper of 1.94, 2.58 for the same period. Source: ISI Web of Knowledge 2010, http://esi.isiknowledge.com/rankdatapage.cgi.

37 National Science Foundation (NSF), Science and engineering Indicators 2010, figure 5-A, http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind10/c5/fig05-a.gif.

38 Ibid., figure 5-21, http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind10/c5/fig05-21.gif.

39 Article counts from set of journals covered by Science Citation Index (SCI) and Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI). Articles classified by year they entered database, rather than year of publication, and assigned to countries on basis of institutional addresses listed on articles. Articles on whole count basis, i.e., each collaborating country credited one count.

40 Ibid. Table 5-B, http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind10/c5/tt05-b.htm and http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind10/c5/fig05-a.gif.

41 The ratio measures the number of publications at a point in time relative to the weighted average investment in R&D over the three years. South Korea and China produced almost 3 and 1.2 articles respectively for a unit of investment ($2,000 ppp adjusted) by government and higher education. D'Este and Neely, “Science and Technology in the UK,” 30–40.

42 Iran Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution, (2006), 72–3.

43 Iran Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution, (2007), 92.

44 Fan, Qimiao et al., “Innovation, Competiveness, and Economic Development,” Innovation for Development and the Role of Government: A Perspective from the East Asian and Pacific Region (Washington, DC, 2009), 26Google Scholar.

45 Fan et al., “Innovation,” appendix tables 5-25–5-38, http://search.nsf.gov/search?output=xml_no_dtd&sort=date:D:L:d1&ie=UTF-8&client=SBE2&oe=UTF-8&proxystylesheet=SBE2&proxyreload=1&start=0&site=SBE. Relsei&as_sitesearch=www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind10&q=Iran&btnG=Search.

46 Science Watch, Country Profiles 2010, http://sciencewatch.com/dr/cou/2010.

47 WIPO (World Intellectual Property Organization) Data Base. http://www.wipo.int/ipstats/en/statistics/pct.

48 For the data available for Iran, I have considered the figure 1.36 patents per $billion GDP (statistics for year 2001) which can be considered as pic year for Iran number of patent of 692 before a sharp decrease to 9. WIPO Statistics Database and World Bank (World Development Indicators), June 2009. Note: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data is in billions of US dollars, based on 2005 purchasing power parities.

49 Ashtarian, Kiumars, “Iran,” UNESCO Science Report 2010 (Paris, 2010), 16: 50Google Scholar.

50 The desired range of government spending on R&D is between 20 and 30 percent of GERD. For further information see: Fan et al., “Innovation”, 26.

51 Iran Statistics Center, Salnameh-ye Amari-ye 1386 [Statistical Almanac 2007–08], http://salnameh.sci.org.ir/Dictionary/ShowSectionDict.aspx?year=1386&section=7. A private firm is defined as one with more than 50 percent of its shares belonging to individuals. This means that a firm with 49 percent government share ownership is still classified as private.