Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-c4f8m Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T23:24:51.676Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Explaining Migration Timing: Political Information and Opportunities

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 June 2020

Alisha C. Holland  and
Margaret E. Peters
Get access

Abstract

How do migrants decide when to leave? Conventional wisdom is that violence and economic deprivation force migrants to leave their homes. However, long-standing problems of violence and poverty often cannot explain sudden spikes in migration. We study the timing of migration decisions in the critical case of Syrian and Iraqi migration to Europe using an original survey and embedded experiment, as well as interviews, focus groups, and Internet search data. We find that violence and poverty lead individuals to invest in learning about the migration environment. Political shifts in receiving countries then can unleash migratory flows. The findings underscore the need for further research on what migrants know about law and politics, when policy changes create and end migrant waves, and whether politicians anticipate migratory responses when crafting policy.

Keywords

AsylumrefugeesinformationmigrationSyria
Type
Research Note
Information
International Organization , Volume 74 , Issue 3 , Summer 2020 , pp. 560 - 583
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Apodaca, Clair. 1998. Human Rights Abuses: Precursor to Refugee Flight? Journal of Refugee Studies 11 (1):80–93.10.1093/jrs/11.1.80CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Banerjee, Abhijit V. 1992. A Simple Model of Herd Behavior. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 107 (3):797–817.10.2307/2118364CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barnett, Michael. 2011. Humanitarianism, Paternalism, and the UNHCR. In Refugees in International Relations, edited by Betts, Alexander and Loescher, Gil, 105–32. Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Bhavnani, Rikhil R., and Lacina, Bethany. 2015. The Effects of Weather-Induced Migration on Sons of the Soil Riots in India. World Politics 67 (4):760–94.10.1017/S0043887115000222CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brooks, Sarah M., Cunha, Raphael, and Mosley, Layna. 2015. Categories, Creditworthiness, and Contagion: How Investors’ Shortcuts Affect Sovereign Debt Markets. International Studies Quarterly 59 (3):587–601.10.1111/isqu.12173CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Card, David. 1990. The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market. ILR Review 43 (2):245–57.10.1177/001979399004300205CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlson, Melissa, Jakli, Laura, and Linos, Katerina. 2018. Rumors and Refugees: How Government-Created Information Vacuums Undermine Effective Crisis Management. International Studies Quarterly 62 (3):671–85.10.1093/isq/sqy018CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caughey, Devin. 2016. Package “NPC” R package version 1.1.0. Available at <https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=NPC>..>Google Scholar
Caughey, Devin, Dafoe, Allan, and Seawright, Jason. 2017. Nonparametric Combination (NPC): A Framework for Testing Elaborate Theories. The Journal of Politics 79 (2):688–701.10.1086/689287CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chari, V.V., and Kehoe, Patrick J.. 2003. Hot Money. Journal of Political Economy 111 (6):1262–92.10.1086/378525CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clemens, Michael. 2017. Violence, Development, and Migration Waves: Evidence from Central American Child Migrant Apprehensions. Center for Global Development Working Paper 459:1–55.Google Scholar
Cole, Harold L., and Kehoe, Timothy J.. 2000. Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises. The Review of Economic Studies 67 (1):91–116.10.1111/1467-937X.00123CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davenport, Christian, Moore, Will, and Poe, Steven. 2003. Sometimes You Just Have to Leave: Domestic Threats and Forced Migration, 1964–1989. International Interactions 29 (1):27–55.10.1080/03050620304597CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Epstein, Gil S., and Gang, Ira N.. 2006. The Influence of Others on Migration Plans. Review of Development Economics 10 (4):652–65.10.1111/j.1467-9361.2006.00340.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fisman, Raymond. 2001. Estimating the Value of Political Connections. American Economic Review 91 (4):1095–102.10.1257/aer.91.4.1095CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fitzgerald, Jennifer, Leblang, David, and Teets, Jessica C.. 2014. Defying the Law of Gravity: The Political Economy of International Migration. World Politics 66 (03):406–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Granovetter, Mark. 1978. Threshold Models of Collective Behavior. American Journal of Sociology 83 (6):1420–43.10.1086/226707CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hangartner, Dominik, Dinas, Elias, Marbach, Moritz, and Matakos, Konstantinos. 2019. Does Exposure to the Refugee Crisis Make Natives More Hostile? American Political Science Review 113 (2):442–55.10.1017/S0003055418000813CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hopkins, Daniel J. 2010. Politicized Places: Explaining Where and When Immigrants Provoke Local Opposition. American Political Science Review 104 (1):40–60.10.1017/S0003055409990360CrossRefGoogle Scholar
International Organization for Migration (IOM). 2016. Migration Flows from Iraq to Europe: Reasons Behind Migration. Available at <https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/migration-flows-iraq-europe-reasons-behind-migration-enarku>..>Google Scholar
Marcus, Ruth, Eric, Peritz, and Gabriel, K. Ruben. 1976. On Closed Testing Procedures with Special Reference to Ordered Analysis of Variance. Biometrika 63 (3):655–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Massey, Douglas S., Arango, Joaquin, Hugo, Graeme, Kouaouci, Ali, Pellegrino, Adela, and Taylor, J. Edward. 1993. Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review 19 (3):431–66.10.2307/2938462CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moore, Will H., and Shellman, Stephen M.. 2004. Fear of Persecution: Forced Migration, 1952–1995. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (5):723–45.10.1177/0022002704267767CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moretto, Michele, and Vergalli, Sergio. 2008. Migration Dynamics. Journal of Economics 93 (3):223–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neumayer, Eric. 2004. Asylum Destination Choice What Makes Some West European Countries More Attractive Than Others? European Union Politics 5 (2):155–80.10.1177/1465116504042444CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neumayer, Eric. 2005. Bogus Refugees? The Determinants of Asylum Migration to Western Europe. International Studies Quarterly 49 (3):389–410.10.1111/j.1468-2478.2005.00370.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Papaioannou, Elias. 2009. What Drives International Financial Flows? Politics, Institutions and Other Determinants. Journal of Development Economics 88 (2):269–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peters, Margaret E. 2017. Trading Barriers: Immigration and the Remaking of Globalization. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Portes, Alejandro, and Böröcz, József. 1989. Contemporary Immigration: Theoretical Perspectives on Its Determinants and Modes of Incorporation. International Migration Review 23 (3):606–30.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schmeidl, Susanne. 1997. Exploring the Causes of Forced Migration: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis, 1971–1990. Social Science Quarterly 78 (2):284–308.Google Scholar
Shellman, Stephen M., and Stewart, Brandon M.. 2007. Political Persecution or Economic Deprivation? A Time-Series Analysis of Haitian Exodus, 1990–2004. Conflict Management and Peace Science 24 (2):121–37.10.1080/07388940701257523CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shrestha, Maheshwor. 2017. Push and Pull: A Study of International Migration from Nepal. Policy Research Working Paper 7965.10.1596/1813-9450-7965CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stanley, William Deane. 1987. Economic Migrants or Refugees from Violence? A Time-Series Analysis of Salvadoran Migration to the United States. Latin American Research Review 22 (1):132–54.Google Scholar
Zimmermann, Susan E. 2009. Irregular Secondary Movements to Europe: Seeking Asylum Beyond Refuge. Journal of Refugee Studies 22 (1):74–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Holland and Peters Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/98FIZD
Link
Supplementary material: File

Holland and Peters supplementary material

Holland and Peters supplementary material

Download Holland and Peters supplementary material(File)
File 1.8 MB