The basis of an early warning system for new and emerging health technologies is information, and in particular, information that has been selectively extracted from the huge quantity of data in the fields of medicine, science, and biobusiness. The information will be useful only if presented in a format suitable to the needs of health care decision makers and produced at the time most likely to influence the introduction or diffusion of new technologies. In 1997 the Canadian Coordinating Office for Health Technology Assessment (CCOHTA) began a one-year pilot project to identify and provide information on developments in medical technologies that may have a significant impact on health care in Canada. We began by examining the information available to us through the Internet, based on the assumption that electronic sources can offer more timely access to a greater range of information, often with little or no cost involved. It was important to identify the sites that offered the most relevant information in the least amount of time.

We discuss some of the issues that have arisen during the development and introduction into practice of information materials for health professionals and patients that aim to promote clinical effectiveness and informed patient participation in clinical decision making.

A breast cancer screening program mainly aims at reducing mortality. However, it also has an effect, often not assessed, on the utilization of health care resources that is relevant to health care policy making. Using a simulation model, this paper forecasts the impact of introducing a breast cancer screening program on the utilization of resources for the primary therapy of breast cancer. The most important consequences from a health care point of view will be an increased use of breast-conserving therapy and an increased need for postoperative radiotherapy; there will also be a higher number of women diagnosed with noninvasive breast cancer. The results of this study could provide support for health care decision making by showing the consequences of policy decisions on the introduction of screening programs for health care utilization.

How to obtain confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios is complicated by the statistical problems of obtaining a confidence interval for a ratio of random variables. Different approaches have been suggested in the literature, but no consensus has been reached. We propose an alternative simple solution to this problem. By multiplying the effectiveness units by the price per effectiveness unit, both costs and benefits can be expressed in monetary terms and standard statistical techniques can be used to estimate a confidence interval for net benefits. This approach avoids the ratio estimation problem and explicitly recognizes that the price per effectiveness unit has to be known to provide cost-effectiveness analysis with a useful decision rule.

This paper critically evaluates methods for the preliminary economic evaluation of health technologies and the prioritization of health technology assessment projects. It reports on the literature, and considers methods currently employed and the purposes of preliminary appraisal. It concludes that a preliminary economic appraisal needs to be applied to the two main stages of the prioritization process; to have transparent criteria; to allow for an appropriate range of potential outcomes; to be practicable, flexible, and efficient; and to be relevant to the assessment of different research projects.

A cost-effectiveness (CE) analysis was performed of Bassini versus laparoscopic repair for primary inguinal hernia. Incremental costs per 1 -year recurrence-free patient were calculated for the societal and hospital perspective. From the hospital perspective, the incremental CE ratio of laparoscopic repair is 5.348 guilders. From the societal perspective, laparoscopic repair is both less costly and more effective than Bassini repair. Results were sensitive to assumptions about recurrence rates, laparoscopic operating time, and return to work. Laparoscopic repair should replace Bassini repair in order to benefit society. From the hospital perspective, the decision to accept laparoscopic repair depends on the willingness to pay.

Total treatment costs by stage at diagnosis are estimated for a sample of breast cancer patients. At 4 years, stage 4 cancers emerge as being more expensive to treat than those at earlier stages, although this difference fails to achieve significance when expected lifetime costs are considered. The inclusion of treatment cost estimates in a screening model indicates that screening may increase expected treatment costs by a marginal amount, although the model also suggests that the cost effectiveness ratio of breast cancer screening might be better than had originally been thought.

Policy makers, health care providers, and the general public need valid information about the benefits and harmful effects of drugs and technologies to be able to make rational choices in their acquisition, distribution, and use. Effective communication is important for quality choices of drugs and other technologies. In effective communication, the choice of messages and media must correspond to the culture and beliefs of the target groups to make them comprehend and adopt the conclusions. Messages must be presented on a regular basis. Most regulatory agencies do not have enough resources to mount effective communication programs. Private advertising agencies and other stakeholders have definite roles. Valid knowledge must be the basis of dialogues to reduce emotional disputes among various benefit groups in society.

A range of fecal occult blood tests are presently on the market and could potentially be used in population screening programs for the detection of colorectal neoplasms. This paper estimates the relative cost-effectiveness of alternative tests and concludes that the unhydrated Hemoccult II is the most cost-effective. However, the incremental costs per life-year of the HemeSelect test and the rehydrated Hemoccult II test are in line with incremental costs observed in breast cancer and cervical cancer programs.

Physician's Desk Reference and Database is a Finnish collection of computerized primary care guidelines. The program has been in clinical use since 1989. For this study, a function producing a log file of all searches was added to the program. Two hundred twenty-seven users returned log files that contained 15,267 searches. The users made 3.12 (range 1–10.4) searches per day. The average time needed to find and read an article was 4.9 minutes. Sufficient facts were found in 71% of the searches. Dermatology was the most popular field of interest, followed by infectious diseases and cardiology.

The purpose of this study was to determine how horizon-scanning organizations can encourage the implementation of recommendations contained in their early warning messages about emerging health technologies. We reviewed the conclusions of the EUR-ASSESS Project Subgroup report on dissemination and impact, an overview of systematic reviews of interventions to promote implementation of research findings by health care professionals, and various Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group protocols and reviews. The evidence on the effectiveness of different implementation strategies aimed at distinct target groups is of variable quality. There is some evidence from rigorous study designs on the effectiveness of strategies designed to influence the behavior of health care professionals; the quality of the evidence relating to policy makers and the general public is more limited. Horizon-scanning organizations can improve the likelihood of their recommendations being acted upon by developing active implementation strategies based on the best available evidence, establishing links with key groups, and directing early warning messages at specific target audiences. Given the relative lack of good quality evidence, it is important that implementation strategies be rigorously evaluated to determine their effectiveness.

A National Patient Library, a public/private partnership, is proposed to identify and vet information for consumers. Library staff will help tailor general information to consumers' specific needs. The library includes an electronic network. The principal focus of the library's information is controversial and experimental procedures, Pharmaceuticals, and medical devices.

The article gives a global overview of the 14 years of signposting experience of the Health Council of the Netherlands. The Council signals new health care technologies and emerging health care problems in briefs, comprehensive reports, and bulletins. Its main purpose is to provide the government with timely information to support rational policy decision making.

With a growing number of economic evaluations being conducted alongside trials, there is a need to address, and if necessary, investigate the generalizability of results derived from trials. This paper explores the generalizability of costs from a trial investigating the frequency of breast cancer screening in the United Kingdom.

Menorrhagia, or heavy regular menstrual bleeding, represents a major health burden to women. Trials comparing abdominal hysterectomy (AH) with transcervical resection of the endometrium (TCRE) for the condition have shown that, although the duration and severity of convalescence is less with TCRE, AH produces a permanent solution to heavy bleeding while TCRE fails in a proportion of women by 2 years. However, by 2 years, TCRE costs only 71% that of AH. This paper presents a cost-utility analysis to assess which procedure is more cost-effective overall. Under most plausible parameter values and on the basis of health state values elicited from a sample of women with menorrhagia, AH is likely to be considered more cost-effective than TCRE if purchasers are willing to pay an additional cost of at least £6,500 per extra quality-adjusted life-year generated by AH.

The widespread implementation of rationing and priority-setting policies in health care opposes the stochastic practice of medicine induced by professional uncertainty and professional vested interests in market-oriented clinical environments. It also clashes with consumers' overly optimistic and “mythical” view of the effectiveness of medicine, which is bound to support a potentially unlimited provision of health services. Thus, for consumers and society at large, it is necessary to create conditions favorable for a more conscious demand of evidence-based health care. In pursuit of this goal, we suggest the adoption of a community-oriented strategy based upon delivery of information to the public in order a) to generate greater awareness (“healthy skepticism”) among consumers, through disclosure of data on the true effectiveness of health care interventions and on the existing variation in their utilization, and b) to provide tools to empower consumers in dealing better with both the uncertainty in their own individual patient-physician relationships and with the health policy issues to be faced in the future. Such a community-oriented strategy could also reinforce and support, through the generation of a “bottom-up” pressure from consumers toward physicians, a wider adoption of evidence-based interventions by health care professionals. This paper, using data from surveys on public opinions and attitudes toward the practice of medicine, focuses on how consumer demand for more evidence-based medical practice can be promoted.

The time invested by patients and informal caregivers in treatment and rehabilitation should be valued in a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The Washington Panel gives recommendations on incorporation of time costs that may misrepresent true societal costs. This article provides alternative recommendations for incorporating costs of time in CEA. Following an opportunity costs approach, time is separated into three parts, each with its own valuation methods: time spent on paid work, unpaid work, and leisure.

In this paper we describe the present range of organizations that have a role in the early warning of new and emerging health care technologies in the United Kingdom. We discuss in more detail the processes and prioritization criteria used by the U.K. horizon-scanning project for the NHS Health Technology Assessment Programme, and the principal methods of technology identification for the horizon-scanning project are outlined. The United Kingdom plans to develop an integrated system for the identification of technologies for commercial planning, health service research prioritization, financial planning, and provision of information to policy makers, purchasers, and providers of health care.

Individual programs for prevention of cardiovascular disease include dietary and drug treatment of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension treatment, and smoking cessation therapies. In this study, the cost-effectiveness of available cardiovascular prevention programs was assessed in Spain in terms of net cost per life-year gained (LYG). Cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from US $2,600 to $80,000 per LYG in men and from $4,500 to $230,000 per LYG in women. In men aged 40–59 years, the ranking of increasing cost-effectiveness was: smoking cessation ($2,608–3,738 per LYG); treatment of moderate and severe hypertension ($8,564–38,678 per LYG); treatment of mild hypertension ($11,906–59,840 per LYG); dietary treatment ($16,143–20,158 per LYG); and drug treatment of hypercholesterolemia ($33,850–81,010 per LYG). In women, the ranking list was: smoking cessation ($4,482–5,756 per LYG), treatment of moderate and severe hypertension ($9,585–57,983 per LYG), treatment of mild hypertension ($15,248–86,075 per LYG), dietary treatment ($57,175–62,154 per LYG); and drug treatment of hypercholesterolemia ($104,100–259,150 per LYG).

A comparison of two assessment methods, consensus among experts and research synthesis of the scientific literature, was performed using a surgical procedure, carotid endarterectomy (CE), as an example. These two methods have been widely advocated as being scientifically valid. While the comparison revealed a number of areas of general agreement, important differences between the two methods emerged. For example, 30-day mortality for asymptomatic patients was considered an effective outcome (ranked first) by the synthesis, but only “quivocal” (ranked third) of six major indicators reported by the consensus method. The synthesis results are also consistent with other literature reviews as well as with recent large-scale randomized trial results. A number of factors that could account for differences between the two methods were examined. Overall, use of consensus panels may be appropriate early in the development of an intervention where the evidence is sparse, while quantitative research synthesis is preferable when a number of high-quality studies have been performed.