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Counterfactual Arguments in Historical Analysis: From the Debate on the Partition of Africa and the Effect of Colonial Rule

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 May 2014

Jarle Simensen
Jarle Simensen*
Affiliation:
University of Trondheim
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Extract

During the last decade the question of counterfactual arguments has attracted a good deal of attention both in philosophy and history. A recent example, which concentrates on the logics of counterfactual analysis in history, is T.O. Climo and P.G.A. Howells' “Possible worlds in historical explanation.” Further progress in this field probably depends both on a development of the purely logical issues involved and an analysis of the actual usage of counterfactuals in the language of practicing historians. My own approach belongs primarily to the latter category. I shall consider examples of counterfactual arguments in two hotly debated fields, first the partition of the African continent and, second, the effects of colonial rule. This approach will provide examples of the function of counterfactuals both in causal analysis and in historical evaluations. My primary aim is to establish a categorization of different usages, but the opportunity will also be taken to discuss in a general manner criteria for the legitimate use of counterfactual argument in history. In this connection I should emphasize my lack of knowledge in formal logic, except that provided by my two Norwegian collegues, Ottar Dahl, and Jon Elster, on whom I rely heavily for the more theoretical parts of this paper.

Historical analysis is preoccupied with causes, and in causal analysis there is a particular urge to identify socalled “sufficient” and “necessary” causes. In propositions about such causes some counterfactual assumptions are logically implicit. The clearest example of a necessary cause or precondition for European expansion in Africa is that of technology. To take an early and typical example, Holland Rose maintained that it was an “essential condition” of colonization that “mechanical appliances should be available for the overcoming of natural obstacles.” The implicit counterfactual is that without technology, never colonization. Counterfactuals of this kind scarcely attract attention precisely because of their obvious legitimacy.

Type
Research Article
Information
History in Africa , Volume 5 , 1978 , pp. 169 - 186
Copyright
Copyright © African Studies Association 1978

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References

1. Fogel, Robert, Railroads and American Growth, (Baltimore, 1964)Google Scholar and Fogel, Robert and Engerman, S., Time on the Cross (Boston, 1974).Google Scholar For an introduction to the debate and references to some important contributions, see Fischer, David H., Historians' Fallacies, (New York, 1970), p. 15.Google Scholar A recent Scandinavian contribution to the debate is Gustavson, B. “Den ‘nya’ ekonomisk-historiska forskningen och de kontrafaktiska förklaringarna”, Svensk Historisk Tidskrift, No. 3 (1976).Google Scholar

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13. Ibid. Translation mine.

14. Ibid, p. 491. Translation mine.

15. I owe this point to Jon Elster.

16. Such criticism, however, overlooks the fact that Egypt and European strategic motivation only represents one side of Robinson and Gallagher's theory. The full explanation of the authors is based on a very comprehensive theory of European-African interaction in the nineteenth century.

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24. Ibid, pp. 246-47, 250-51, 253-54.

25. Ibid, p. 245.

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35. Ibid., p. 261.

36. Jon Elster, MS cited above, note 3, chapter on “Imperialism and Colonialism.” I also owe main points of the two following paragraphs to Elster.

37. Manning, P., “Analyzing the costs and benefits of colonialism,” pp. 15–22.Google Scholar

38. Ibid., p. 19.

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40. For the development of the concept of “objective possibility” see von Kreis, J., Über den Begriff der objektiven Mögliahkeit und einige Anwendungen desselben (Leipzig, 1888).Google Scholar A recent Marxist example of the use of the concept is Berntsen, H., “Objektivitet og historie,” Syn og Segn, 75(1969), pp. 434–44.Google Scholar