The increasing cases of COVID-19 poses a threat on the over strained health care systems, especially in developing countries. Health care systems might need a surge to accommodate the ever increasing number of COVID1-19 cases. Hence, we assessed the Ugandan healthcare systems’ capacity to accommodate the surge in the increased caseloads, which might need admission and critical care due to COVID-19.

Understanding the health systems capacity to accomadate the surge in increase caseload of COVID-19

We assumed that 2% of the Uganda population get symptomatic infections by COVID-19 based on modelled estimates of Uganda and ascertained the healthcare systems surge capacity for COVID-19 under three transmission curves scenarios; 6, 12 and 18 months. We estimated four measures for hospital surge capacity; ICU bed surge capacity, ICU bed tipping point, hospital bed capacity and hospital bed tipping point. Estimates were made for national level and 132 district local government.

The capacity of Ugandan health care system to accommodate the increasing numbers of cases due to COVID-19 is hindered by the lack of oxygen. Only 9 in 20 (46%) of hospital beds had oxygen supply. The hospital bed surge capacity varied across districts. Under the 12 months transmission scenario, the proportion of hospital with available beds, that would accommodate COVID-19 cases varied from 4% in Karomoja district, to 84% in Kampala district. The Ugandan healthcare systems faces a critical gap in ICU beds and ventilator capacity. Only 48 out of 132 districts had at least 1 ICU unit. An additional 2,247 bed and 2,756 ventilators (12 months transmission curve) will be needed to accommodate the caseloads due to COVID-19.

The capacity for Ugandan healthcare systems to manage to manage the COVID-19 caseloads is minimal. There need to address the sub-national variations in bed surge capacity, ICU units and ventilators within the Ugandan healthcare system.

None Declared