Measles vaccination is estimated to have averted 13·8 million deaths between 2000 and 2012. Persisting heterogeneity in coverage is a major contributor to continued measles mortality, and a barrier to measles elimination and introduction of rubella-containing vaccine. Our objective is to identify determinants of inequities in coverage, and how vaccine delivery must change to achieve elimination goals, which is a focus of the WHO Decade of Vaccines. We combined estimates of travel time to the nearest urban centre (⩾50 000 people) with vaccination data from Demographic Health Surveys to assess how remoteness affects coverage in 26 African countries. Building on a statistical mapping of coverage against age and geographical isolation, we quantified how modifying the rate and age range of vaccine delivery affects national coverage. Our scenario analysis considers increasing the rate of delivery of routine vaccination, increasing the target age range of routine vaccination, and enhanced delivery to remote areas. Geographical isolation plays a key role in defining vaccine inequity, with greater inequity in countries with lower measles vaccine coverage. Eliminating geographical inequities alone will not achieve thresholds for herd immunity, indicating that changes in delivery rate or age range of routine vaccination will be required. Measles vaccine coverage remains far below targets for herd immunity in many countries on the African continent and is likely to be inadequate for achieving rubella elimination. The impact of strategies such as increasing the upper age range eligible for routine vaccination should be considered.

An evaluation was conducted to determine which syndromic surveillance tools complement traditional surveillance by serving as earlier indicators of influenza activity in Sweden. Web queries, medical hotline statistics, and school absenteeism data were evaluated against two traditional surveillance tools. Cross-correlation calculations utilized aggregated weekly data for all-age, nationwide activity for four influenza seasons, from 2009/2010 to 2012/2013. The surveillance tool indicative of earlier influenza activity, by way of statistical and visual evidence, was identified. The web query algorithm and medical hotline statistics performed equally well as each other and to the traditional surveillance tools. School absenteeism data were not reliable resources for influenza surveillance. Overall, the syndromic surveillance tools did not perform with enough consistency in season lead nor in earlier timing of the peak week to be considered as early indicators. They do, however, capture incident cases before they have formally entered the primary healthcare system.

Many serogroups of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) other than serogroup O157 (non-O157 STEC), for example STEC O26:H11, are highly pathogenic and capable of causing haemolytic uraemic syndrome. A recent increase in non-O157 STEC cases identified in England, resulting from a change in the testing paradigm, prompted a review of the current methods available for detection and typing of non-O157 STEC for surveillance and outbreak investigations. Nineteen STEC O26:H11 strains, including four from a nursery outbreak were selected to assess typing methods. Serotyping and multilocus sequence typing were not able to discriminate between the stx-producing strains in the dataset. However, genome sequencing provided rapid and robust confirmation that isolates of STEC O26:H11 associated with a nursery outbreak were linked at the molecular level, had a common source and were distinct from the other strains analysed. Virulence gene profiling of DNA extracted from a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive/culture-negative faecal specimen from a case that was epidemiologically linked to the STEC O26:H11 nursery outbreak, provided evidence at the molecular level to support that link. During this study, we describe the utility of PCR and the genome sequencing approach in facilitating surveillance and enhancing the response to outbreaks of non-O157 STEC.

Two-hundred MRSA strains from inpatients with healthcare-associated (HA) and 100 MRSA strains from outpatients with community-associated (CA) skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) were tested for antimicrobial susceptibility, staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) typing, Panton–Valentine leucocidin (PVL) toxin, seh and arcA genes. Based on SCCmec typing, HA-MRSA isolates were further divided into HA-SCCmec I/II/III MRSA and HA-SCCmec IV/V MRSA, and CA-MRSA isolates into CA-SCCmec I/II/III MRSA and CA-SCCmec IV/V MRSA. SCCmec types were further characterized by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, spa typing and multi-locus sequence typing. Seventy-five (37·5%) HA-MRSA isolates and 83/100 CA-MRSA isolates were SCCmec IV/V genotype. HA-SCCmec IV/V MRSA was associated with malignancy (P = 0·03) and bone fractures (P = 0·02) compared to CA-SCCmec IV/V MRSA. HA-SCCmec IV/V MRSA was associated with PVL gene carriage compared to HA-SCCmec I/II/III MRSA (P < 0·001). ST22-MRSA-IV (EMRSA-15), ST772-MRSA-V, and ST36-MRSA-IV and ST239:EMRSA-I:III were the major clones identified. Our study documents the emergence of SCCmec IV and SCCmec V MRSA clones in an Indian hospital.

The Beijing/W lineage strains are the major prevalent strains in China. The prevalence, mortality and drug-resistant rates of tuberculosis in Xinjiang, Northwestern China are higher than in other parts of the country. Our previous study results showed that the dominant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) were ‘Beijing/W lineage’ MTB in Xinjiang; those strains had no significant correlation with drug resistance. We investigated whether the prevalence of ‘Beijing/W lineage’ sublineage strains was associated with drug resistance. We collected 478 sputum specimens from patients with pulmonary tuberculosis. Beijing/W strains and their sublineages were identified by distinguishing five specific large sequence polymorphisms, using polymerase chain reaction. All strains were subjected to a drug susceptibility test using the proportion method on Löwenstein–Jensen culture medium. In total, 379 clinical isolates of MTB were isolated and identified, 57·26% of these isolates were identified as Beijing/W strains, of which 11·06% isolates were in sublineage 105, 14·74% isolates in sublineage 207, 69·59% isolates in sublineage 181, and 4·61% isolates in sublineage 150. None of the isolates was in sublineage 142. Our data showed there were four sublineages of Beijing/W isolates in Xinjiang province, China. However, there were no correlations between drug resistance and the sublineages of Beijing/W strains.

Continued monitoring of the seriousness of influenza viruses is a public health priority. We applied time-series regression models to data on cardio-respiratory mortality rates in Hong Kong from 2001 to 2011. We used surveillance data on outpatient consultations for influenza-like illness, and laboratory detections of influenza types/subtypes to construct proxy measures of influenza activity. In the model we allowed the regression coefficients for influenza to drift over time, and adjusted for temperature and humidity. The regression coefficient for influenza A(H3N2) increased significantly in 2005. The regression coefficients for influenza A(H1N1) and B were relatively stable over the period. Our model suggested an increase in seriousness of A(H3N2) in 2005, the year after the appearance of the A/Fujian/411/2002(H3N2)-like virus when the drifted A/California/7/2004(H3N2)-like virus appeared. Ongoing monitoring of mortality and influenza activity could permit identification of future changes in seriousness of influenza virus infections.

This investigation was undertaken to characterize the prevalence of intestinal Vibrio cholerae in healthcare workers (HCWs) returning from Haiti due to the ongoing cholera epidemic. Eight hundred and fifty asymptomatic HCWs of the Cuban Medical Brigade, who planned to leave Haiti, were studied by laboratory screening of stool culture for V. cholerae. A very low percentage (0·23%) of toxigenic V. cholerae serogroup O1, serotype Ogawa was found. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the largest reported screening study for V. cholerae infection in asymptomatic HCWs returning from a cholera-affected country. Cholera transmission to health personnel highlights a possible risk of transmitting cholera during mobilization of the population for emergency response. Aid workers are encouraged to take precautions to reduce their risk for acquiring cholera and special care should be taken by consuming safe water and food and practising regular hand washing.

In Australia, hepatitis B (HBV) vaccination is recommended for injecting drug users (IDUs), Indigenous adults and prisoners. We compared immunity to HBV in prisoners and the general population obtained from national serosurveys in 2007. Individuals with HBV surface antibody (HBsAb) positive sera were considered immune from past infection [HBV core antibody (HBcAb) positive] or from vaccination (HBcAb negative). Male prisoners aged 18–58 years had a higher HBsAb seroprevalence than the general population (46·4% vs. 39·4%, P = 0·061). Comparison of HBcAb results was possible for males aged 18–29 years. In this group, higher HBsAb seroprevalence was due to past infection (12·9% vs. 3·0%, P < 0·001), rather than vaccine-conferred immunity (35·3% vs. 43·4%, P = 0·097). All prisoner groups, but especially IDUs, those of Indigenous heritage or those with a previous episode of imprisonment had higher levels of immunity from past infection than the general population (19·3%, 33·0%, 17·1%, respectively, vs. 3·0%, P < 0·05). Indigenous prisoners, non-IDUs and first-time entrants had significantly lower levels of vaccine-conferred immunity than the general population (26·4%, 26·2% and 20·7% respectively vs. 43·4%, P < 0·05). Improving prison-based HBV vaccination would prevent transmission in the prison setting and protect vulnerable members of the community who are at high risk of both infection and entering the prison system.

The objectives of this study were to identify human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes in a group of Bosnian-Herzegovinian women with abnormal cytology and to assess their potential coverage by vaccines. HPVs were identified by multiplex real-time PCR test (HPV High Risk Typing Real-TM; Sacace Biotechnologies, Italy) of 105 women with an abnormal cervical Pap smear and positive high-risk (HR) HPV DNA screening test. The most common genotypes in the study were HPV-16 (32·6%, 48/147), HPV-31 (14·3%, 21/147), HPV-51 (9·5%, 14/147) and HPV-18 (7·5%, 11/147). The overall frequency of HR HPV-16 and/or HPV-18, covered by currently available vaccines [Gardasil® (Merck & Co., USA) and Cervarix®; (GlaxoSmithKline, UK)] was lower than the overall frequency of other HPVs detected in the study (40·1%, 59/174, P = 0·017). Group prevalence of HR HPVs targeted by a nine-valent vaccine in development (code-named V503) was higher than total frequency of other HPVs detected (68·0%, 100/147, P < 0·001). Development of cervical cytological abnormalities was independent of the presence of multiple infections (χ2 = 0·598, P = 0·741). Compared to other HPVs, dependence of cervical diagnosis and HPV-16, -18 (P = 0·008) and HPV-16, -18, -31 (P = 0·008) infections were observed. Vaccines targeting HR HPV-16, -18 and -31 might be an important tool in the prevention of cervical disease in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Food- and waterborne disease is thought to be high in some Canadian Indigenous communities; however, the burden of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) is not well understood due to limited availability and quality of surveillance data. This study estimated the burden of community-level self-reported AGI in the Inuit communities of Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, and Iqaluit, Nunavut, Canada. Cross-sectional retrospective surveys captured information on AGI and potential environmental risk factors. Multivariable logistic regression models identified potential AGI risk factors. The annual incidence of AGI ranged from 2·9–3·9 cases/person per year in Rigolet and Iqaluit. In Rigolet, increased spending on obtaining country foods, a homeless person in the house, not visiting a cabin recently, exposure to puppies, and alternative sources of drinking water were associated with increased odds of AGI. In Iqaluit, eating country fish often, exposure to cats, employment status of the person responsible for food preparation, not washing the countertop with soap after preparing meat, a homeless person in the house, and overcrowding were associated with increased odds of AGI. The results highlight the need for systematic data collection to better understand and support previously anecdotal indications of high AGI incidence, as well as insights into unique AGI environmental risk factors in Indigenous populations.

Toxoplasma gondii is a zoonotic protozoan parasite, infecting a wide range of warm-blooded animals. The Swedish wild boar population is expanding and increased hunting provides its meat to a growing group of consumers. We performed a spatio-temporal investigation of T. gondii seroprevalence in Swedish wild boars. An ELISA was set up and evaluated against a commercial direct agglutination test, using Bayesian latent class analysis. The ELISA sensitivity and specificity were estimated to 79% and 85%, respectively. Of 1327 serum samples, 50% were positive. Thirty-four per cent of young wild boars and 55% of adults were positive (P < 0·001). The total seroprevalence ranged from 72% in 2005 to 38% in 2011 (P < 0·001), suggesting a declining trend. The highest seroprevalence, 65%, was recorded in South Sweden. In other regions it varied from 29% in Stockholm to 46% in East Middle Sweden.

Norovirus (NV) is an important cause of acute gastroenteritis in children, but is also frequently detected in asymptomatic children, which complicates the interpretation of NV detection results in both the clinical setting and population prevalence studies. A total of 807 faecal samples from children aged <5 years hospitalized for acute gastroenteritis were collected in Thai Binh, Vietnam, from January 2011 to September 2012. Real-time RT–PCR was used to detect and quantify NV-RNA in clinical samples. A bimodal distribution of cycle threshold (Ct) values was observed in which the lower peak was assumed to represent cases for which NV was the causal agent of diarrhoea, whereas the higher peak was assumed to represent cases involving an alternative pathogen other than NV. Under these assumptions, we applied finite-mixture modelling to estimate a threshold of Ct <21·36 (95% confidence interval 20·29–22·46) to distinguish NV-positive patients for which NV was the likely cause of diarrhoea. We evaluated the validity of the threshold through comparisons with NV antigen ELISA results, and comparisons of Ct values in patients co-infected with rotavirus. We conclude that the use of an appropriate cut-off value in the interpretation of NV real-time RT–PCR results may improve differential diagnosis of enteric infections, and could contribute to improved estimates of the burden of NV disease.

Diverse strain types of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) cause infections in community settings worldwide. To examine heterogeneity of spread within households and to identify common risk factors for household transmission across settings, primary data from studies conducted in New York (USA), Breda (The Netherlands), and Melbourne (Australia) were pooled. Following MRSA infection of the index patient, household members completed questionnaires and provided nasal swabs. Swabs positive for S. aureus were genotyped by spa sequencing. Poisson regression with robust error variance was used to estimate prevalence odds ratios for transmission of the clinical isolate to non-index household members. Great diversity of strain types existed across studies. Despite differences between studies, the index patient being colonized with the clinical isolate at the home visit (P < 0·01) and the percent of household members aged <18 years (P < 0·01) were independently associated with transmission. Targeted decolonization strategies could be used across geographical settings to limit household MRSA transmission.

In Australia, varicella vaccine was universally funded in late 2005 as a single dose at 18 months. A school-based catch-up programme for children aged 10–13 years without a history of infection or vaccination was funded until 2015, when those eligible for universal infant vaccination would have reached the age of high school entry. This study projects the impact of discontinuing catch-up vaccination on varicella and zoster incidence and morbidity using a transmission dynamic model, in comparison with alternative policy options, including two-dose strategies. At current vaccine coverage (83% at 2 years and 90% at 5 years), ceasing the adolescent catch-up programme in 2015 was projected to increase varicella-associated morbidity between 2035 and 2050 by 39%. Although two-dose infant programmes had the lowest estimated varicella morbidity, the incremental benefit from the second dose fell by 70% if first dose coverage increased from 83% to 95% by age 24 months. Overall zoster morbidity was predicted to rise after vaccination, but differences between strategies were small. Our results suggest that feasibility of one-dose coverage approaching 95% is an important consideration in estimating incremental benefit from a second dose of varicella vaccine.

During a 4-year (2007–2010) survey, the presence of Brucella suis infection in domestic pigs in Sardinia was investigated. Serum samples were collected from breeding pigs located on 108 commercial farms with documented reproductive problems and analysed using the Rose Bengal (RBT) and complement fixation (CFT) tests for screening and confirmation of Brucella, respectively. Of the 1251 serum samples analysed by RBT, 406 sera, originating from 36 farms, were positive for B. suis. CFT was positive in 292/748 sera analysed, confirming positivity in all 36 pig herds. Pigs with international complement fixation test units per ml (ICFTU/ml) values ⩾160 were slaughtered, and their organs collected for bacteriological examination and testing by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Brucella spp. strains were isolated in culture from 13/502 organs analysed, and subsequently identified as B. suis biovar 2. PCR detected positivity to Brucella spp. in 19/285 organs analysed. These results confirm the presence and emergence of B. suis infection in domestic pigs in Sardinia.

We used the winter of 2009–2010, which had minimal influenza circulation due to the earlier 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, to test the accuracy of ecological trend methods used to estimate influenza-related deaths and hospitalizations. We aggregated weekly counts of person-time, all-cause deaths, and hospitalizations for pneumonia/influenza and respiratory/circulatory conditions from seven healthcare systems. We predicted the incidence of the outcomes during the winter of 2009–2010 using three different methods: a cyclic (Serfling) regression model, a cyclic regression model with viral circulation data (virological regression), and an autoregressive, integrated moving average model with viral circulation data (ARIMAX). We compared predicted non-influenza incidence with actual winter incidence. All three models generally displayed high accuracy, with prediction errors for death ranging from −5% to −2%. For hospitalizations, errors ranged from −10% to −2% for pneumonia/influenza and from −3% to 0% for respiratory/circulatory. The Serfling and virological models consistently outperformed the ARIMAX model. The three methods tested could predict incidence of non-influenza deaths and hospitalizations during a winter with negligible influenza circulation. However, meaningful mis-estimation of the burden of influenza can still result with outcomes for which the contribution of influenza is low, such as all-cause mortality.

There has been a rapid rise in the prevalence of cases of monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium (mST) in both humans and farm animals, and it has been found in pigs, cattle and poultry. It is therefore vital to have a good understanding of how to efficiently detect infected farms. The objective of this project was to determine sample type sensitivity in the detection of Salmonella to detect infected groups of animals on both pig (breeder, grower and finisher sites) and cattle (beef and dairy) farms, using data collected from a study investigating farms that were positive for mST, and to explore any variation between different age groups and management practices. A Bayesian approach in the absence of a gold standard was adopted to analyse the individual and pooled faecal sample data collected from each epidemiological group on each of the farms. The sensitivity of pooled sampling depended on the prevalence of infection in the group being sampled, with a higher prevalence leading to higher sensitivity. Pooled sampling was found to be more efficient at detecting positive groups of animals than individual sampling, with the probability of a random sample from a group of animals with 5% prevalence testing positive being equal to 15·5% for immature pigs (3·6% for an individual faecal sample, taking into account the sensitivity and infection prevalence), 7·1% for adult pigs (1·2% for individual sampling), 30% for outdoor cattle (2% for individual sampling) and 34% for indoor cattle (1% for individual sampling). The mean prevalence of each epidemiological group was higher in outdoor farms than indoor for both pigs and cattle (mean within-farm prevalence of 29·4% and 38·7% for outdoor pigs and cattle, respectively, compared to 19·8% and 22·1% for indoor pigs and cattle)

This study aimed to assess and compare the epidemiology of faecal carriage of extended spectrum β-lactamase-producing enterobacteria (ESBL-E) in Hepatology departments of two hospitals specializing in liver diseases, Theodor Bilharz Research Institute (TBRI) in Cairo (Egypt) and Beaujon Hospital (Bj) in Clichy (France). CTX-M groups were identified by PCR, and TEM and SHV derivatives with the check-point system. Phylogenetic groups of E. coli were determined by multiplex PCR, and clone ST131 by PCR of gene pabB. Prevalence of ESBL-E was 77·6% (45/58) in TBRI and 6·5% (13/199) in Bj (P < 10−7). Previous hospitalization was more common (P = 0·003) in Bj patients (93%) than in TBRI patients (45%) suggesting high prevalence of ESBL-E in the Egyptian community. The presence of E. coli B2 ST131 among ESBL-E faecal E. coli in Egypt confirms its pervasiveness in the community and raises concern regarding this highly virulent and resistant clone.

Wild canids are potential hosts for numerous species of Bartonella, yet little research has been done to quantify their infection rates in South America. We sought to investigate Bartonella seroprevalence in captive wild canids from 19 zoos in São Paulo and Mato Grosso states, Brazil. Blood samples were collected from 97 wild canids belonging to four different native species and three European wolves (Canis lupus). Indirect immunofluorescent antibody testing was performed to detect the presence of B. henselae, B. vinsonii subsp. berkhoffii, B. clarridgeiae, and B. rochalimae. Overall, Bartonella antibodies were detected in 11 of the canids, including five (12·8%) of 39 crab-eating foxes (Cerdocyon thous), three (11·1%) of 27 bush dogs (Speothos venaticus), two (8·7%) of 23 maned wolves (Chrysocyon brachyurus) and one (12·5%) of eight hoary foxes (Lycalopex vetulus), with titres ranging from 1:64 to 1:512. Knowing that many species of canids make excellent reservoir hosts for Bartonella, and that there is zoonotic potential for all Bartonella spp. tested for, it will be important to conduct further research in non-captive wild canids to gain an accurate understanding of Bartonella infection in free-ranging wild canids in South America.

Campylobacter jejuni is responsible for most foodborne bacterial infections worldwide including Australia. The aim of this study was to investigate a combination of typing methods in the characterization of C. jejuni isolated from clinical diarrhoeal samples (n = 20) and chicken meat (n = 26) in order to identify the source of infection and rank isolates based on their relative risk to humans. Sequencing of the flaA short variable region demonstrated that 86% of clinical isolates had genotypes that were also found in chicken meat. A polymerase chain reaction binary typing system identified 27 different codes based on the presence or absence of genes that have been reported to be associated with various aspects of C. jejuni pathogenicity, indicating that not all isolates may be of equal risk to human health. The lipooligosaccharide (LOS) of the C. jejuni isolates was classified into six classes (A, B, C, E, F, H) with 10·4% remaining unclassified. The majority (72·7%) of clinical isolates possessed sialylated LOS classes. Sialylated LOS classes were also detected in chicken isolates (80·7%). Antimicrobial tests indicated a low level of resistance, with no phenotypic resistance found to most antibiotics tested. A combination of typing approaches was useful to assign isolates to a source of infection and assess their risk to humans.