The purpose of this study was to estimate simple measures of the burden of non-invasive pneumococcal pneumonia (PnPn) hospitalisations in those aged 50 years and older (50+) in Norway. We conducted a retrospective register-based study and used discharge codes from the Norwegian Patient Register (NPR). We identified episodes of non-invasive PnPn in 2015 to 2016 and predicted its incidence from 2015 to 2019 based on the trend found in notified invasive pneumococcal disease cases. Overall, we identified 45–46 hospital episodes per 100 000 population of non-invasive PnPn in 2015 and 2016, each episode taking 6–8 days, and with increasing incidence with higher age. Among all identified PnPn episodes, 3 out of 4 were classified as non-invasive. We predicted that the monthly number of non-invasive PnPn episodes ranges from 39 [95% confidence interval (CI) 24–55] in August to 97 (95% CI 74–134) in December. No annual trend was identified. This study indicates that the burden of non-invasive PnPn hospitalisation has a substantial impact on the health and health care use of the 50+ population in Norway, despite the childhood immunisation programme. Many hospitalisations may be prevented through vaccination.

Rabies in cattle is a viral disease with mandatory notification in Brazil, transmitted by Desmodus rotundus, which causes an invariably fatal acute encephalitis. To understand the dynamics of this disease in Tocantins state, Brazil, an analysis of the time series of rabies cases in cattle between 2006 and 2019 was carried out to describe the pattern of its occurrence, aiming to subsidise the Official Veterinary Service (OVS) with relevant information to enable the improvement of control actions provided for in the guidelines of the National Program for the Control of Rabies in Herbivores (NPCRH). The statistical analyses of the time series under study were performed using the R Studio software, version 1.1.463, in which the existence of trend, cyclicality and seasonality of rabies cases in cattle was assessed. These analyses showed that this disease is endemic in Tocantins state, with epidemic outbreaks that can occur every 3 or 4 years, without a seasonality pattern. The autoregressive integrated by moving average (ARIMA(4,1,4)) model predicted the approximate occurrence of 38 rabies cases in cattle in 2022 and all monthly records of this disease remained within the predicted confidence interval (95% CI) in 2020 and 2021, demonstrating it has a good predictive capacity and allowing OVS to intervene in the present processes to achieve better control of this disease.

Health care workers (HCWs) are in a higher risk of acquiring the disease owing to their regular contact with the patients. The aim of this study is to evaluate the seroprevalence among HCWs pre- and post-vaccination. The serological assessment of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody was conducted in pre- and post-vaccination of first or both doses of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine and followed up to 8 months for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and antibody titre. The neutralising antibody was positively correlated with IgG and total antibody. IgG was significantly decreased after 4–6 months post-infection. Almost all HCWs developed IgG after 2 doses of vaccine with comparable IgG to that of the infected HCWs. A follow-up of 6 to 8 months post vaccination showed a significant drop in antibody titre, while 56% of them didn't show a detectable level of IgG, suggesting the need for a booster dose. Around 21% of the vaccinated HCWs with significantly low antibody titre were infected with the SARS-CoV-2, but a majority of them showed mild symptoms and recovered in home isolation without any O2 support. We noticed the effectiveness of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine as evident from the low rate of breakthrough infection with any severe symptoms.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had an uneven development in different countries. In Argentina, the pandemic began in March 2020 and, during the first 3 months, the vast majority of cases were concentrated in a densely populated region that includes the city of Buenos Aires (country capital) and the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) area that surrounds it. This work focuses on the spread of COVID-19 between June and November 2020 in GBA. Within this period of time there was no vaccine, basically only the early wild strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was present, and the official restriction and distancing measures in this region remained more or less constant. Under these particular conditions, the incidences show a sharp rise from June 2020 and begin to decrease towards the end of August until the end of November 2020. In this work we study, through mathematical modelling and available epidemiological information, the spread of COVID-19 in this region and period of time. We show that a coherent explanation of the evolution of incidences can be obtained assuming that only a minority fraction of the population got involved in the spread process, so that the incidences decreased as this group of people was becoming immune. The observed evolution of the incidences could then be a consequence at the population level of lasting immunity conferred by SARS-CoV-2.

There is limited information on the volume of antibiotic prescribing that is influenza-associated, resulting from influenza infections and their complications (such as streptococcal pharyngitis and otitis media). Here, we estimated age/diagnosis-specific proportions of antibiotic prescriptions (fills) for the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population during 2010–2018 that were influenza-associated. The proportion of influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing among all antibiotic prescribing was higher in children aged 5–17 years compared to children aged under 5 years, ranging from 1.4% [95% CI (0.7–2.1)] in aged <1 year to 2.7% (1.9–3.4) in aged 15–17 years. For adults aged over 20 years, the proportion of influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing among all antibiotic prescribing was lower, ranging from 0.7% (0.5–1) for aged 25–29 years to 1.6% (1.2–1.9) for aged 60–64 years. Most of the influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing in children aged under 10 years was for ear infections, while for age groups over 25 years, 45–84% of influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing was for respiratory diagnoses without a bacterial indication. This suggests a modest benefit of increasing influenza vaccination coverage for reducing antibiotic prescribing, as well as the potential benefit of other measures to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing for respiratory diagnoses with no bacterial indication in persons aged over 25 years, both of which may further contribute to the mitigation of antimicrobial resistance.

The mumps resurgence has frequently been reported around the world in recent years, especially in many counties mumps vaccines have been widely used. This study aimed to describe the spatial epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jiangsu, and provide a scientific basis for the implementation and adjustment of strategies to prevent and control mumps. The epidemiological characteristics were described with ratio or proportion. Spatial autocorrelation, Tango's flexible spatial scan statistics, and Kulldorff's elliptic spatiotemporal scan statistics were applied to identify the spatial autocorrelation, detect hot and cold spots of mumps incidence, and aggregation areas. A total of 172 775 cases were reported from 2004 to 2020 in Jiangsu. The general trend of mumps incidence is declining with a bimodal seasonal distribution identified mainly in summer and winter, respectively. Children aged 5–10 years old are the main risk group. A migration trend of hot spots from southeast to northwest over time was found. Similar high-risk aggregations were detected in the northwestern parts through spatial-temporal analysis with the most likely cluster time frame around 2019. Local medical and health administrations should formulate and implement targeted health care policies and allocate health resources more appropriately corresponding to the epidemiological characteristics of mumps.

In 2015, Botswana introduced the quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine as a two-dose schedule in girls aged 9–13 years. We sought to establish a baseline HPV prevalence in unvaccinated young adults in Botswana. HIV-uninfected men and women aged 18–22 years were recruited from the University of Botswana in Gaborone during October 2019–February 2021. Demographic and behavioural characteristics were self-reported during structured interviews. Self-collected vaginal and penile swabs were tested for 28 HPV types using Seegene Anyplex II HPV28. We compared any HPV type, quadrivalent vaccine (HPV 6, 11, 16, 18)-type and non-quadrivalent vaccine-type prevalence in men and women and evaluated the risk factors for prevalence of any HPV type. A total of 493 men and 500 women were included in the analysis. Compared to men, women had higher prevalence of any HPV type (63.0% versus 31.4%, P < 0.001), vaccine-type HPV (21% versus 9.7%, P < 0.001) and non-vaccine-type HPV (60.4% versus 28.4%, P < 0.001). Higher prevalence of any HPV type in men and women was associated with having ≥2 sex partners in the past 12 months; always using condoms in the past 3 months was associated with a lower HPV prevalence. These data provide baseline information for future evaluation of the population impact of the HPV vaccination programme, including potential herd effects in men.

This prospective longitudinal epidemiological study was aimed at investigating the occupational SARS-CoV-2 infection risk of long distance train services in Germany. Three different employee groups (train attendants, train drivers and maintenance workers) within the workforce of the German railway carrier Deutsche Bahn Fernverkehr AG were studied based on their contact frequency with passengers and colleagues. Approximately 1100 employees were tested by PCR for acute infections and by antibody detection for past infections in June 2020, October 2020 and February 2021. Cumulative incidence (acute and past infections) after the third (final) test series in February 2021 was 8.5% (95% interval CI 6.8–10.4): 8.5% (95% CI 6.2–11.2) for train attendants, 5.5% (95% CI 2.9–9.5) for train drivers and 11.8% (95% CI 7.6–17.2) for maintenance workers. Between June 2020 and October 2020, the incidence was 1.2% (95% CI 0.6–2.3): 1.2% (95% CI 0.4–2.7) for train attendants, 1.1% (95% CI 0.1–3.9) for train drivers and 1.4% (95% CI 0.17–5.10) for maintenance workers. Between October 2020 and February 2021, it was 5.1% (95% CI 3.6–6.8): 5.2% (95% CI 3.3–7.8) for train attendants, 1.6% (95% CI 0.3–4.5) for train drivers and 8.8% (95% CI 4.9–14.3) for maintenance workers. Thus, contrary to expectation our exploratory data did not show train attendants to be at the highest risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections among the employee groups. In line with expectations, train drivers, representing the low contact group, seemed at lowest occupational risk.

To investigate the effect of maternal hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) carrier status during pregnancy on pregnancy outcomes in a population of patients in Hangzhou, China. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyse data from 20 753 pregnant women who delivered at Hangzhou Women's Hospital between January 2015 and March 2020. Of these, 18 693 were normal pregnant women (the non-exposed group) and 735 were HBsAg carriers (the exposed group). We then analysed by binary multivariate logistic regression to determine the association between maternal HBsAg-positive and adverse pregnancy outcomes. The prevalence of HBsAg carriers was 3.78% and the odds ratio (OR) for maternal age in the exposed group was 1.081. Pregnant women who are HBsAg-positive in Hangzhou, China, are at higher risk of a range of adverse pregnancy outcomes, including intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP) (adjusted OR (aOR) 3.169), low birth weight (aOR 2.337), thrombocytopenia (aOR 2.226), fallopian cysts (aOR 1.610), caesarean scar pregnancy (aOR 1.283), foetal distress (aOR 1.414). Therefore, the obstetricians should pay particular attention to ICP, low birth weight, thrombocytopenia, fallopian cysts, caesarean scar, foetal distress in HBsAg-positive pregnant women.

The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

Using nested case–control data from the Lifelines COVID-19 cohort, we undertook a validation study of a clinical and genetic model to predict the risk of severe COVID-19 in people with confirmed COVID-19 and in people with confirmed or self-reported COVID-19. The model performed well in terms of discrimination of cases and controls for all ages (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.680 for confirmed COVID-19 and AUC = 0.689 for confirmed and self-reported COVID-19) and in the age group in which the model was developed (50 years and older; AUC = 0.658 for confirmed COVID-19 and AUC = 0.651 for confirmed and self-reported COVID-19). There was no evidence of over- or under-dispersion of risk scores but there was evidence of overall over-estimation of risk in all analyses (all P < 0.0001). In the light of large numbers of people worldwide remaining unvaccinated and continuing uncertainty regarding vaccine efficacy over time and against variants of concern, identification of people at high risk of severe COVID-19 may encourage the uptake of vaccinations (including boosters) and the use of non-pharmaceutical inventions.

Inappropriate use of antibiotics is among the key drivers of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Antibiotic use in Northern Ireland (NI) is the highest in the UK and approximately 80% is prescribed in primary care. Little information however exists about the patient and prescriber factors driving this. We described the trend in NI primary care total antibiotic prescribing 2010–2019 and conducted a cross-sectional study using a random sample of individuals registered with an NI GP on 1st January 2019. We used multilevel logistic regression to examine how sociodemographic factors and urinary catheter use was associated with the likelihood of being prescribed an antibiotic during 2019, adjusting for clustering at GP practice and GP federation levels. Finite mixture modelling (FMM) was conducted to determine the association between the aforementioned risk factors and quantity of antibiotic prescribed (defined daily doses). The association between age and antibiotic prescription differed by gender. Compared to males 41–50 years, adjusted odds of prescription were higher for males aged 0–10, 11–20 and 51 + years, and females of any age. Catheter use was strongly associated with antibiotic prescription (aOR = 6.82, 95% CI 2.50–18.64). Socioeconomic deprivation and urban/rural settlement were not associated in the multilevel logistic analysis. GP practices and federations accounted for 1.24% and 0.12% of the variation in antibiotic prescribing respectively. FMM showed associations between larger quantities of antibiotics and being older, male and having a catheter. This work described the profile of individuals most likely to receive an antibiotic prescription in NI primary care and identified GP practice as a source of variation; suggesting an opportunity for reduction from effective interventions targeted at both individuals and general practices.

Male sex is associated with higher risk of both colonisation and infection with Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus). However, the role of sex-steroids in colonisation among men is largely unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate possible associations between circulating sex-steroids and nasal carriage of S. aureus in a general male population. The population-based Tromsø6 study (2007–2008) included 752 males aged 31–87 years with serum sex-steroids measured by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry and two nasal swab samples for the assessment of S. aureus carriage. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to study the association between sex-steroid concentrations and S. aureus persistent nasal carriage (two positive swabs vs. others), while adjusting for potential confounding factors.

S. aureus persistent nasal carriage prevalence was 32%. Among men aged 55 years and above (median age 65 years), there was an inverse dose-response relationship between serum concentration of testosterone and persistent nasal carriage, and carriers had significantly lower mean levels of testosterone (P = 0.028, OR = 0.94 per nmol/l change in testosterone; 95% CI = 0.90–0.98). This association was attenuated when adjusting for body mass index and age (OR = 0.96 per nmol/l change in testosterone; 95% CI = 0.91–1.01). There was no association in the total population. This large population-based study suggests that testosterone levels may be inversely related to S. aureus persistent nasal carriage in older men. Future studies addressing biological mechanisms underlying the male predisposition to S. aureus colonisation and infection may foster preventive interventions that take sex-differences into account.

The COVID-19 epidemic showed inter-regional differences in Italy. We used an ecological study design and publicly available data to compare the basic reproduction number (R0), the doubling time of the infection (DT) and the COVID-19 cumulative incidence (CI), death rate, case fatality rate (CFR) and time lag to slow down up to a 50-days doubling time in the first and the second 2020 epidemic waves (δDT50) by region. We also explored socio-economic, environmental and lifestyle variables with multiple regression analysis. COVID-19 CI and CFR changed in opposite directions in the second vs. the first wave: the CI increased sixfold with no evidence of a relationship with the testing rate; the CFR decreased in the regions where it was initially higher but increased where it was lower. The R0 did not change; the initially mildly affected regions, but not those where the first wave had most severely hit, showed a greater δDT50 amplitude. Vehicular traffic, average temperature, population density, average income, education and household size showed a correlation with COVID-19 outcomes. The deadly experience in the first epidemic wave and the varying preparedness of the local health systems might have contributed to the inter-regional differences in the second COVID-19 epidemic wave.

We describe an outbreak of delta variant SARS-CoV-2 on a psychogeriatric ward of elderly patients. Retrospectively collected data was analysed using Fisher's exact test to assess the association between patients’ vaccination status and infection rates, severity of disease and mortality. Vaccination with two doses was shown to reduce severity of disease (5% vs. 75%, p < 0.001) and mortality (5% vs. 50%, p < 0.018) amongst an elderly inpatient population during an outbreak of delta variant SARS-CoV-2. Vaccination should be encouraged in elderly care institutions. Furthermore, adequate vaccination in elderly care institutions is an important consideration in current booster (third/fourth) dose schedules.

Despite the growing body of evidence suggesting that alcohol consumption is associated with an increased risk of and poorer treatment outcomes from pneumonia, little is known about the association between alcohol control policy and pneumonia mortality. As such, this study aimed to assess the impact of three alcohol control policies legislated in 2008, 2017 and 2018 in Lithuania on sex-specific pneumonia mortality rates among individuals 15+ years of age. An interrupted time-series analysis using a generalised additive mixed model was performed for each policy. Of the three policies, only the 2008 policy resulted in a significant slope change (i.e. decline) in pneumonia mortality rates among males; no significant slope change was observed among females. The low R2 values for all sex-specific models suggest that other external factors are likely also influencing the sex-specific pneumonia mortality rates in Lithuania. Overall, the findings from this study suggest alcohol control policy's targeting affordability may be an effective way to reduce pneumonia mortality rates, among males in particular. However, further research is needed to fully explore their impact.

In Cameroon, >90% of cattle are considered exposed to African animal trypanosomiasis (AAT) infection, with the presence of tsetse rendering cattle husbandry as a very difficult proposition. A systematic review of data on AAT and tsetse from 1990 to 2021 was conducted to develop a national atlas. The review identified 74 relevant scientific documents, with three pathogenic Trypanosoma species (Trypanosoma vivax, T. congolense and T. brucei s.l.) most frequently identified as causing AAT. Trypanosoma grayi, T. theileri, T. simiae and the human African trypanosomiasis causative agent T. brucei gambiense were also identified in a wide range of hosts. The tsetse fly fauna of Cameroon comprises nine species, with Glossina palpalis palpalis and G. fuscipes fuscipes the most widely distributed following their identification in seven and five of the 10 regions, respectively. Two species, Glossina nigrofusca and G. pallicera pallicera appeared to be rare and were restricted to both forest and protected areas. The presence of AAT is associated with the presence of tsetse in the livestock–human–wildlife interface of Cameroon. AAT occurs beyond the tsetse belts of the country where mechanical vectors are abundant. This study provides AAT and tsetse maps to support ongoing interventions in Cameroon.

The molecular properties of the circulating causative agents of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Wuxi remain unclear, posing diagnostic and prevention challenges. Additionally, in several regions of mainland China, the EV71 immunisation drastically reduced related cases and altered the HFMD pathogen spectrum, while the precise situation in Wuxi remained unknown. To address these issues, paediatric HFMD cases diagnosed in the clinic were enrolled and anal swabs were acquired in the spring of 2019. The 5′-UTR and VP1 genes were interpreted using RT-nPCR with degenerate primers to confirm their genotypes. Following that, the entire genome sequences of each viral type were recovered, allowing for the interpretation of several molecular properties. A total of 249 clinically confirmed HFMD cases had their anal swabs taken for viral identification, from which the genome sequences of seven genotypes were recovered. Coxsackievirus A16 is the most prevalent type, followed by Coxsackievirus A6, A10, A2, A4, A5 and Echovirus 11, all of which were genetically determined for the first time in Wuxi. Phylogenetic and recombination analyses were used to evaluate their evolutionary relationships with other strains found in other regions. Noticeably, a CVA16 subtype, responsible for a large proportion of the observed cases, phylogenetically clustered within clade B1a along with some strains from other countries, was the first one to be reported in China. Furthermore, some recombination events were inferred from strains detected in sporadic cases, particularly the recombination between CVA2 and CVA5 strains. Our investigation elucidated the multiple molecular characteristics of the HFMD causal enterovirus strains in Wuxi, underlining the potential hazards associated with these circulating viral types in the population and aiding in future surveillance and prevention of this disease.

We investigated risk factors associated with COVID-19 by conducting a retrospective, frequency-matched case-control study, with three sampling periods (August–October 2020). We compared cases completing routine contact tracing to asymptomatic population controls. Multivariable analyses estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for non-household community settings. Meta-analyses using random effects provided pooled odds ratios (pORs). Working in healthcare (pOR 2.87; aORs 2.72, 2.81, 3.08, for study periods 1–3 respectively), social care (pOR 4.15; aORs 2.46, 5.06, 5.41, for study periods 1–3 respectively) or hospitality (pOR 2.36; aORs 2.01, 2.54, 2.63, for study periods 1–3 respectively) were associated with increased odds of being a COVID-19 case. Additionally, working in bars, pubs and restaurants, warehouse settings, construction, educational settings were significantly associated. While definitively determining where transmission occurs is impossible, we provide evidence that in certain sectors, the impact of mitigation measures may only be partial and reinforcement of measures should be considered in these settings.

This paper presents a method used to rapidly assess the incursion and the establishment of community transmission of suspected SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Delta (lineage B.1.617.2) into the UK in April and May 2021. The method described is independent of any genetically sequenced data, and so avoids the inherent lag times involved in sequencing of cases. We show that, between 1 April and 12 May 2021, there was a strong correlation between local authorities with high numbers of imported positive cases from India and high COVID-19 case rates, and that this relationship holds as we look at finer geographic detail. Further, we also show that Bolton was an outlier in the relationship, having the highest COVID-19 case rates despite relatively few importations. We use an artificial neural network trained on demographic data, to show that observed importations in Bolton were consistent with similar areas. Finally, using an SEIR transmission model, we show that imported positive cases were a contributing factor to persistent transmission in a number of local authorities, however they could not account for increased case rates observed in Bolton. As such, the outbreak of Delta variant in Bolton was likely not a result of direct importation from overseas, but rather secondary transmission from other regions within the UK.