The Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) has been previously associated with Zika virus infection. We analysed the data from all the patients with GBS diagnosis that were admitted to a referral hospital, in Tapachula City during the period from January 2013 to August 2016, comparing the incidence of GBS according to the temporality of the Zika outbreak in Southern Mexico. Additionally, we described the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of the GBS patients admitted before or after the Zika outbreak. We observed a sharp increase in the number of patients hospitalised due to GBS from the time the first confirmed Zika cases appeared in Mexico. Clinically we observed GBS cases before zika outbreak had more frequently history of respiratory/gastrointestinal symptoms and GBS during zika outbreak had significantly more frequently recent history of rash/conjunctivitis. Although we cannot affirm that the increased cases of GBS have a specific aetiologic association with Zika, our results suggest that this observed outbreak of in Tapachula, might have been associated to the emerging Zika epidemic, locally and suggests that rare complications associated with acute infections (such as GBS) might be useful in the surveillance systems for emerging infections.

Mass gatherings (MG) present a number of challenges to public health authorities and governments across the world with sporting events, tournaments, music festivals, religious gatherings and all other MG having historically posed a risk to the spread and amplification of a range of infectious diseases. Transmission of gastrointestinal, respiratory, waterborne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases pose a particular risk: all have been linked to MG events [1–4]. Infection risk often depends on the nature of the mass gathering, and on the profile and behaviour of its participants. The interaction between environmental, psychological, biological and social factors plays a vital part. The risk of outbreaks particularly as a result of respiratory transmission remains high at MG, with the majority of outbreaks over the last two decades resulting from a variety of respiratory and vaccine preventable pathogens [5–7]. Concerns about the spread of infectious diseases at MG are often focussed on crowding, lack of sanitation and the mixing of population groups from different places. Sporting events, which have in recent decades become more complex and international in nature, pose a challenge to the control of communicable disease transmission [8]. Despite this, large scale outbreaks at sporting events have been rare in recent decades, particularly since the rise of more robust public health planning, prevention, risk assessment and improved health infrastructures in host countries [9].

Consumption of unpasteurised milk in the United States has presented a public health challenge for decades because of the increased risk of pathogen transmission causing illness outbreaks. We analysed Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System data to characterise unpasteurised milk outbreaks. Using Poisson and negative binomial regression, we compared the number of outbreaks and outbreak-associated illnesses between jurisdictions grouped by legal status of unpasteurised milk sale based on a May 2019 survey of state laws. During 2013–2018, 75 outbreaks with 675 illnesses occurred that were linked to unpasteurised milk; of these, 325 illnesses (48%) were among people aged 0–19 years. Of 74 single-state outbreaks, 58 (78%) occurred in states where the sale of unpasteurised milk was expressly allowed. Compared with jurisdictions where retail sales were prohibited (n = 24), those where sales were expressly allowed (n = 27) were estimated to have 3.2 (95% CI 1.4–7.6) times greater number of outbreaks; of these, jurisdictions where sale was allowed in retail stores (n = 14) had 3.6 (95% CI 1.3–9.6) times greater number of outbreaks compared with those where sale was allowed on-farm only (n = 13). This study supports findings of previously published reports indicating that state laws resulting in increased availability of unpasteurised milk are associated with more outbreak-associated illnesses and outbreaks.

This is the first report on a population-based prospective study of invasive group B streptococcus (GBS) disease among children aged <15 years conducted over a period of 11 years in Japan. This study investigated the incidence and clinical manifestations of invasive GBS disease in children in Chiba Prefecture, Japan, and analysed the serotypes and drug susceptibility of GBS strains isolated during the study period. Overall, 127 episodes of invasive GBS disease were reported in 123 patients. Of these, 124 were observed in 120 patients aged <1 year, and the remaining three episodes were reported in a 9-year-old child and two 14-year-old children with underlying disease. For patients aged <1 year, the incidence rate per 1000 live births was 0.24 (0.15–0.36). The incidences of early-onset disease and late-onset disease were 0.04 (0.0–0.09) and 0.17 (0.08–0.25), respectively. The rate of meningitis was 45.2%, and the incidence of GBS meningitis was higher than that of other invasive diseases among children in Japan. Of the 109 patients for whom prognosis was available, 7 (6.4%) died and 21 (19.3%) had sequelae. In total, 68 strains were analysed. The most common were serotype III strains (n = 42, 61.8%), especially serotype III/ST17 strains (n = 22, 32.4%). This study showed that the incidence of invasive GBS disease among Japanese children was constant during the study period. Because of the high incidence of meningitis and disease burden, new preventive strategies, such as GBS vaccine, are essential.

We describe the investigations and management of a Cryptosporidium parvum outbreak of linked to consumption of pasteurised milk from a vending machine. Multiple locus variable number of tandem repeats analysis was newly used, confirming that C. parvum detected in human cases was indistinguishable from that in a calf on the farm. This strengthened the evidence for milk from an on-farm vending machine as the source of the outbreak because of post-pasteurisation contamination. Bacteriological indicators of post-pasteurisation contamination persisted after the initial hygiene improvement notice. We propose that on-farm milk vending machines may represent an emerging public health risk.

Healthcare workers (HCWs) have increased exposure and subsequent risk of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). This case-control study was conducted to investigate the contemporaneous risks associated with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection amongst HCWs following in-work exposure to a confirmed coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) case. We assessed the influence of demographic (age, sex, nationality, high risk co-morbidities and vaccination status) and work-related factors (job role, exposure location, contact type, personal protective equipment (PPE) use) on infection risk following nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 exposure. All contact tracing records within the hospital site during waves 1–3 of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ireland were screened to identify exposure events, cases and controls. In total, 285 cases and 1526 controls were enrolled, as a result of 1811 in-work exposure events with 745 index cases. We demonstrate that male sex, Eastern European nationality, exposure location, PPE use and vaccination status all impact the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection following nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 exposure. The findings draw attention to the need for continuing emphasis on PPE use and its persisting benefit in the era of COVID-19 vaccinations. We suggest that non-work-related factors may influence infection risk seen in certain ethnic groups and that infection risk in high-risk HCW roles (e.g. nursing) may be the result of repeated exposures rather than risks inherent to a single event.

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has increased infectivity and immune escape compared with previous variants, and caused the surge of massive COVID-19 waves globally. Despite a vast majority (~90%) of the population of Santa Fe city, Argentina had been vaccinated and/or had been infected by SARS-CoV-2 when Omicron emerged, the epidemic wave that followed its arrival was by far the largest one experienced in the city. A serosurvey conducted prior to the arrival of Omicron allowed to assess the acquired humoral defences preceding the wave and to conduct a longitudinal study to provide individual-level real-world data linking antibody levels and protection against COVID-19 during the wave. A very large proportion of 1455 sampled individuals had immunological memory against COVID-19 at the arrival of Omicron (almost 90%), and about half (48.9%) had high anti-spike immunoglobulin G levels (>200 UI/ml). However, the antibody titres varied greatly among the participants, and such variability depended mainly on the vaccine platform received, on having had COVID-19 previously and on the number of days elapsed since last antigen exposure (vaccine shot or natural infection). A follow-up of 514 participants provided real-world evidence of antibody-mediated protection against COVID-19 during a period of high risk of exposure to an immune-escaping highly transmissible variant. Pre-wave antibody titres were strongly negatively associated with COVID-19 incidence and severity of symptoms during the wave. Also, receiving a vaccine shot during the follow-up period reduced the COVID-19 risk drastically (15-fold). These results highlight the importance of maintaining high defences through vaccination at times of high risk of exposure to immune-escaping variants.

The risk factors specific to the elderly population for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the Omicron variant of concern (VOC) are not yet clear. We performed an exploratory analysis using logistic regression to identify risk factors for severe COVID-19 illness among 4,868 older adults with a positive severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) test result who were admitted to a healthcare facility between 1 January 2022 and 16 May 2022. We then conducted one-to-one propensity score (PS) matching for three factors – dementia, admission from a long-term care facility and poor physical activity status – and used Fisher's exact test to compare the proportion of severe COVID-19 cases in the matched data. We also estimated the average treatment effect on treated (ATT) in each PS matching analysis. Of the 4,868 cases analysed, 1,380 were severe. Logistic regression analysis showed that age, male sex, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic lung disease, renal failure and/or dialysis, physician-diagnosed obesity, admission from a long-term care facility and poor physical activity status were risk factors for severe disease. Vaccination and dementia were identified as factors associated with non-severe illness. The ATT for dementia, admission from a long-term care facility and poor physical activity status was −0.04 (95% confidence interval −0.07 to −0.01), 0.09 (0.06 to 0.12) and 0.17 (0.14 to 0.19), respectively. Our results suggest that poor physical activity status and living in a long-term care facility have a substantial association with the risk of severe COVID-19 caused by the Omicron VOC, while dementia may be associated with non-severe illness.

To reappraise pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) eligibility criteria towards the men who have sex with men (MSM) with highest HIV-risk, we assessed PrEP need (i.e. HIV-risk) using Amsterdam Cohort Studies data from 2011–2017 for all non-PrEP using MSM. Outcomes were incident HIV-infection and newly-diagnosed anal STI. Determinants were current PrEP eligibility criteria (anal STI and condomless sex (CAS)) and additional determinants (age, education, group sex, alcohol use during sex and chemsex). We used targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) to estimate the relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of determinants on outcomes, and calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) with 95% CI using RRs from TMLE. Among 810 included MSM, 22 HIV-infections and 436 anal STIs (n = 229) were diagnosed during follow-up. Chemsex (RR = 5.8 (95% CI 2.0–17.0); PAF = 55.3% (95% CI 43.3–83.4)), CAS with a casual partner (RR = 3.3 (95% CI 1.3–8.7); PAF = 38.0% (95% CI 18.3–93.6)) and anal STI (RR = 5.3 (95% CI 1.7–16.7); PAF = 22.0 (95% CI −16.8 to 100.0)) were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with and had highest attributable risk fractions for HIV. Chemsex (RR = 2.0 (95% CI 1.6–2.4); PAF = 19.5 (95% CI 10.6–30.6)) and CAS with a casual partner (RR = 2.5 (95% CI 2.0–3.0); PAF = 28.0 (95% CI 21.0–36.4)) were also significantly associated with anal STI, as was younger age (16–34/≥35; RR = 1.7 (95% CI 1.4–2.1); PAF = 15.5 (95% CI 6.4–27.6)) and group sex (RR = 1.3 (95% CI 1.1–1.6); PAF = 9.0 (95% CI −2.3 to 23.7)). Chemsex should be an additional PrEP eligibility criterion.

We developed an agent-based model using a trial emulation approach to quantify effect measure modification of spillover effects of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell metropolitan area, Georgia. PrEP may impact not only the individual prescribed, but also their partners and beyond, known as spillover. We simulated a two-stage randomised trial with eligible components (≥3 agents with ≥1 HIV+ agent) first randomised to intervention or control (no PrEP). Within intervention components, agents were randomised to PrEP with coverage of 70%, providing insight into a high PrEP coverage strategy. We evaluated effect modification by component-level characteristics and estimated spillover effects on HIV incidence using an extension of randomisation-based estimators. We observed an attenuation of the spillover effect when agents were in components with a higher prevalence of either drug use or bridging potential (if an agent acts as a mediator between ≥2 connected groups of agents). The estimated spillover effects were larger in magnitude among components with either higher HIV prevalence or greater density (number of existing partnerships compared to all possible partnerships). Consideration of effect modification is important when evaluating the spillover of PrEP among MSM.

During 6 weeks in February–March 2021, the Dutch municipal health service Utrecht studied the epidemiological effects on test incidence and the detection of acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with mass testing (MT). During MT, inhabitants of Bunschoten could repeatedly test regardless of symptoms and as often as desired at the close-by test facilities in the municipality. Data from the regular COVID-19 registration was used for analysis. In Bunschoten, MT caused a significant increase in test incidence and an immediate increase in the number of detected active infections, in contrast to a stabilisation in the rest of the province of Utrecht. Age distribution of test incidence shifted to the older population in Bunschoten during MT. During MT, there was a 6.8 percentage point increase in detected asymptomatic cases, a 0.4 percentage point increase in pre-symptomatic cases and a decrease of 0.5 days between onset of symptoms and test date. This study has shown that MT increases test incidence and helps to obtain a more complete view of the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in a community, which can be useful in specific situations with a defined target group or goal. However, the question remains open whether the use of MT is proportionate to the overall gain.

Identification of geographical areas with high burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in schools using spatial analyses has become an important tool to guide targeted interventions in educational setting. In this study, we aimed to explore the spatial distribution and determinants of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among students aged 3–18 years in South Korea. We analysed the nationwide epidemiological data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in schools and in the communities between January 2020 and October 2021 in South Korea. To explore the spatial distribution, the global Moran's I and Getis-Ord's G using incidence rates among the districts of aged 3–18 years and 30–59 years. Spatial regression analysis was performed to find sociodemographic predictors of the COVID-19 attack rate in schools and in the communities. The global spatial correlation estimated by Moran's I was 0.647 for the community population and 0.350 for the student population, suggesting that the students were spatially less correlated than the community-level outbreak of SARS-CoV-2. In schools, attack rate of adults aged 30–59 years in the community was associated with increased risk of transmission (P < 0.0001). Number of students per class (in kindergartens, primary schools, middle schools and high schools) did not show significant association with the school transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In South Korea, COVID-19 in students had spatial variations across the country. Statistically significant high hotspots of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among students were found in the capital area, with dense population level and high COVID-19 burden among adults aged 30–59 years. Our finding suggests that controlling community-level burden of COVID-19 can help in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection in school-aged children.

Episodes of bacterial superinfections have been well identified for several respiratory viruses, notably influenza. In this retrospective study, we compared the frequency of superinfections in COVID-19 patients to those found in influenza-positive patients, and to controls without viral infection. We included 42 468 patients who had been diagnosed with COVID-19 and 266 261 subjects who had tested COVID-19 negative between 26 February 2020 and 1 May 2021. In addition, 4059 patients were included who had tested positive for the influenza virus between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2019. Bacterial infections in COVID-19 patients were more frequently healthcare-associated, and acquired in ICUs, were associated with longer ICU stays, and occurred in older and male patients when compared to controls and to influenza patients (P < 0.0001 for all). The most common pathogens proved to be less frequent in COVID-19 patients, including fewer cases of bacteraemia involving E. coli (P < 0.0001) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (P = 0.027) when compared to controls. In respiratory specimens Haemophilus influenzae (P < 0.0001) was more frequent in controls, while Streptococcus pneumoniae (P < 0.0001) was more frequent in influenza patients. Likewise, species associated with nosocomial transmission, such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus epidermidis, were more frequent among COVID-19 patients. Finally, we observed a high frequency of Enterococcus faecalis bacteraemia among COVID-19 patients, which were mainly ICU-acquired and associated with a longer timescale to acquisition.

Following the report of the first COVID-19 case in Nepal on 23 January 2020, three major waves were documented between 2020 and 2021. By the end of July 2022, 986 596 cases of confirmed COVID-19 and 11 967 deaths had been reported and 70.5% of the population had received at least two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. Prior to the pandemic, a large dengue virus (DENV) epidemic affected 68 out of 77 districts, with 17 932 cases and six deaths recorded in 2019. In contrast, the country's Epidemiology and Disease Control Division reported 530 and 540 dengue cases in the pandemic period (2020 and 2021), respectively. Furthermore, Kathmandu reported just 63 dengue cases during 2020 and 2021, significantly lower than the 1463 cases reported in 2019. Serological assay showed 3.2% positivity rates for anti-dengue immunoglobulin M antibodies during the pandemic period, contrasting with 26.9–40% prior to it. Real-time polymerase chain reaction for DENV showed a 0.5% positive rate during the COVID-19 pandemic which is far lower than the 57.0% recorded in 2019. Continuing analyses of dengue incidence and further strengthening of surveillance and collaboration at the regional and international levels are required to fully understand whether the reduction in dengue incidence/transmission were caused by movement restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been described as having an overdispersed offspring distribution, i.e. high variation in the number of secondary transmissions of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) per single primary COVID-19 case. Accordingly, countermeasures focused on high-risk settings and contact tracing could efficiently reduce secondary transmissions. However, as variants of concern with elevated transmissibility continue to emerge, controlling COVID-19 with such focused approaches has become difficult. It is vital to quantify temporal variations in the offspring distribution dispersibility. Here, we investigated offspring distributions for periods when the ancestral variant was still dominant (summer, 2020; wave 2) and when Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) was prevailing (spring, 2021; wave 4). The dispersion parameter (k) was estimated by analysing contact tracing data and fitting a negative binomial distribution to empirically observed offspring distributions from Nagano, Japan. The offspring distribution was less dispersed in wave 4 (k = 0.32; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.24–0.43) than in wave 2 (k = 0.21 (95% CI 0.13–0.36)). A high proportion of household transmission was observed in wave 4, although the proportion of secondary transmissions generating more than five secondary cases did not vary over time. With this decreased variation, the effectiveness of risk group-focused interventions may be diminished.

Annual seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended for individuals at high risk of developing post-infection complications in many locations. However, reduced vaccine immunogenicity and effectiveness have been observed among repeat vaccinees in some influenza seasons. We investigated the impact of repeated influenza vaccination on relative vaccine effectiveness (VE) among individuals who were recommended for influenza vaccination in the United Kingdom with a retrospective cohort study using primary healthcare data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a primary care database in the United Kingdom. Relative VE was estimated against general practitioner-diagnosed influenza-like illnesses (GP-ILI) and medically attended acute respiratory illnesses (MAARI) among participants who have been repeatedly vaccinated compared with first-time vaccinees using proportional hazards models. Relative VE against MAARI may be reduced for individuals above 65 years old who were vaccinated in the current and previous influenza seasons for some influenza seasons. However, these findings were not conclusive as we could not exclude the possibility of residual confounding in our dataset. The use of routinely collected data from electronic health records to examine the effects of repeated vaccination needs to be complemented with sufficient efforts to include negative control outcomes to rule out residual confounding.

From 2016–2019, dry bulb onions were the suspected cause of three multistate outbreaks in the United States. We investigated a large multistate outbreak of Salmonella Newport infections that caused illnesses in both the United States and Canada in 2020. Epidemiologic, laboratory and traceback investigations were conducted to determine the source of the infections, and data were shared among U.S. and Canadian public health officials. We identified 1127 U.S. illnesses from 48 states with illness onset dates ranging from 19 June to 11 September 2020. Sixty-six per cent of ill people reported consuming red onions in the week before illness onset. Thirty-five illness sub-clusters were identified during the investigation and seventy-four per cent of sub-clusters served red onions to customers during the exposure period. Traceback for the source of onions in illness sub-clusters identified a common onion grower in Bakersfield, CA as the source of red onions, and onions were recalled at this time. Although other strains of Salmonella Newport were identified in environmental samples collected at the Bakersfield, CA grower, extensive environmental and product testing did not yield the outbreak strain. This was the third largest U.S. foodborne Salmonella outbreak in the last 30 years. It is the first U.S. multistate outbreak with a confirmed link to dry bulb onions, and it was nearly 10-fold larger than prior outbreaks with a suspected link to onions. This outbreak is notable for its size and scope, as well as the international data sharing that led to implication of red onions as the primary cause of the outbreak. Although an environmental assessment at the grower identified several factors that likely contributed to the outbreak, no main reason was identified. The expedient identification of the outbreak vehicle and response of multiple public health agencies allowed for recall and removal of product from the marketplace, and rapid messaging to both the public and industry on actions to protect consumers; these features contributed to a decrease in cases and expeditious conclusion of the outbreak.

For the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, the World Health Organization-recommended coverage for herd protection is 95% for measles and 80% for rubella and mumps. However, a national vaccine coverage does not reflect social clustering of unvaccinated children, e.g. in schools of Orthodox Protestant or Anthroposophic identity in The Netherlands. To fully characterise this clustering, we estimated one-dose MMR vaccination coverages at all schools in the Netherlands. By combining postcode catchment areas of schools and school feeder data, each child in the Netherlands was characterised by residential postcode, primary and secondary school (referred to as school career). Postcode-level vaccination data were used to estimate vaccination coverages per school career. These were translated to coverages per school, stratified by school identity. Most schools had vaccine coverages over 99%, but major exceptions were Orthodox Protestant schools (63% in primary and 58% in secondary schools) and Anthroposophic schools (67% and 78%). School-level vaccine coverage estimates reveal strong clustering of unvaccinated children. The school feeder data reveal strongly connected Orthodox Protestant and Anthroposophic communities, but separated from one another. This suggests that even at a national one-dose MMR coverage of 97.5%, thousands of children per cohort are not protected by herd immunity.