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Carbon emissions and economic development: future trajectories based on historical experience

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 January 2001

MARK T. HEIL  and
THOMAS M. SELDEN
MARK T. HEIL
Affiliation:
Indoor Environments Division, Environmental Protection Agency
THOMAS M. SELDEN
Affiliation:
CCFS/AHCPR, 2101 E. Jefferson St., Suite 500, Rockville, MD 20852. Email: tselden@ahcpr.gov
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Abstract

This paper estimates the historic relationship between carbon emissions and GDP using data across countries and across time. We combine this relationship with plausible projections for GDP and population growth to construct a model that offers insights into the likely path of global emissions in the next century. In addition, we experiment with a method for incorporating oil prices into the model. Our analysis provides independent confirmation of the business-as-usual forecasts generated by the larger structural models.

Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 6 , Issue 1 , February 2001 , pp. 63 - 83
Copyright
© 2001 Cambridge University Press

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Footnotes

No official endorsement of the views in this paper by any agency of the U.S. government is intended or should be inferred.