Using the theory of multiple decisions, this paper conducts an analysis of structural stability in location and variance for the linear-regression model. It shows that both cusum and cusum-of-squares techniques are in certain senses optimal. However, the same tests are optimal for changes in location and variance. It is also shown that there is an inherent contradiction between the use of recursive residuals and cusum techniques. The concept of a localized Bayes rule is introduced.

This note considers an asymptotic property of the class of closest moments estimators. Each such estimator is obtained by setting a vector of sample moments close to corresponding population moments. It is shown that each such estimator is asymptotically equivalent to a GMM estimator, which has a quadratic distance function. An implication of this result is that the estimator that is asymptotically efficient in the GMM class is also asymptotically efficient in the wider class of closest moment estimators.

Although originally designed to detect AR(1) disturbances in the linear-regression model, the Durbin-Watson test is known to have good power against other forms of disturbance behavior. In this paper, we identify disturbance processes involving any number of parameters against which the Durbin–Watson test is approximately locally best invariant uniformly in a range of directions from the null hypothesis. Examples include the sum of q independent ARMA(1,1) processes, certain spatial autocorrelation processes involving up to four parameters, and a stochastic cycle model.

For purposes of maximum likelihood estimation, we show how to compute the Gaussian likelihood function when the data are generated by a higher-order continuous-time vector ARMAX model and are observed as stocks and flows at different frequencies. Continuous-time ARMAX models are analogous to discrete-time autoregressive moving-average models with distributed-lag exogenous variables. Stocks are variables observed at points in time and flows are variables observed as integrals over sampling intervals. We derive the implied state-space model of the discrete-time data and show how to use it to compute the Gaussian likelihood function with Kalman-filtering, prediction-error, decomposition of the data.

In a linear-regression model with heteroscedastic errors, we consider two tests: a Hausman test comparing the ordinary least squares (OLS) and least absolute error (LAE) estimators and a test based on the signs of the errors from OLS. It turns out that these are related by the well-known equivalence between Hausman and the generalized method of moments tests. Particular cases, including homoscedasticity and asymmetry in the errors, are discussed.

Under general conditions the sample covariance matrix of a vector martingale and its differences converges weakly to the matrix stochastic integral ∫01BdB′, where B is vector Brownian motion. For strictly stationary and ergodic sequences, rather than martingale differences, a similar result obtains. In this case, the limit is ∫01BdB′ + Λ and involves a constant matrix Λ of bias terms whose magnitude depends on the serial correlation properties of the sequence. This note gives a simple proof of the result using martingale approximations.

Procedures for computing the full information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimates of the parameters of a system of simultaneous regression equations have been described by Koopmans, Rubin, and Leipnik, Chernoff and Divinsky, Brown, and Eisenpress. However, all of these methods are rather complicated since they are based on estimating equations that are expressed in an inconvenient form. In this paper, a transformation of the maximum likelihood (ML) equations is developed which not only leads to simpler computations but which also simplifies the study of the properties of the estimates. The equations are obtained in a form which is capable of solution by a modified Newton-Raphson iterative procedure. The form obtained also shows up very clearly the relation between the maximum likelihood estimates and those obtained by the three-stage least squares method of Zellner and Theil.