In efficiency analysis, the production frontier is defined as the set of the most efficient alternatives among all possible combinations in the input-output space. The nonparametric envelopment estimators rely on the assumption that all the observations fall on the same side of the frontier. The free disposal hull (FDH) estimator of the attainable set is the smallest free disposal set covering all the observations. By construction, the FDH estimator is an inward-biased estimator of the frontier.

The univariate extreme values representation of the FDH allows us to derive a bias-corrected estimator for the frontier. The presentation is based on a probabilistic formulation where the input-output pairs are realizations of independent random variables drawn from a joint distribution whose support is the production set. The bias-corrected estimator shares the asymptotic properties of the FDH estimator. But in finite samples, Monte Carlo experiments indicate that our bias-corrected estimator reduces significantly not only the bias of the FDH estimator but also its mean squared error, with no computational cost. The method is also illustrated with a real data example. A comparison with the parametric stochastic frontier indicates that the parametric approach can easily fail under wrong specification of the model.

We consider the issue of testing a time series for a unit root in the possible presence of a break in a linear deterministic trend at an unknown point in the series. We propose a new break fraction estimator which, where a break in trend occurs, is consistent for the true break fraction at rate Op(T−1). Unlike other available estimators, however, when there is no trend break, our estimator converges to zero at rate Op(T−1/2). Used in conjunction with a quasi difference (QD) detrended unit root test that incorporates a trend break regressor, we show that these rates of convergence ensure that known break fraction null critical values are asymptotically valid. Unlike available procedures in the literature, this holds even if there is no break in trend (the break fraction is zero). Here the trend break regressor is dropped from the deterministic component, and standard QD detrended unit root test critical values then apply. We also propose a second procedure that makes use of a formal pretest for a trend break in the series, including a trend break regressor only where the pretest rejects the null of no break. Both procedures ensure that the correctly sized (near-) efficient unit root test that allows (does not allow) for a break in trend is applied in the limit when a trend break does (does not) occur.

This paper considers the asymptotic distribution of the sample covariance of a nonstationary fractionally integrated process with the stationary increments of another such process—possibly itself. Questions of interest include the relationship between the harmonic representation of these random variables, which we have analyzed in a previous paper (Davidson and Hashimzade, 2008), and the construction derived from moving average representations in the time domain. Depending on the values of the long memory parameters and choice of normalization, the limiting integral is shown to be expressible as the sum of a constant and two Itô-type integrals with respect to distinct Brownian motions. In certain cases the latter terms are of small order relative to the former. The mean is shown to match that of the harmonic representation, where the latter is defined, and satisfies the required integration by parts rule. The advantages of our approach over the harmonic analysis include the facts that our formulas are valid for the full range of the long memory parameters and that they extend to non-Gaussian processes.

In this paper we analyze bootstrap procedures for systems cointegration tests with a prior adjustment for deterministic terms suggested by Saikkonen et al. (2006, Econometric Theory 22, 15–68) and Saikkonen and Lütkepohl (2000, Journal of Time Series Analysis 21, 435–456). The asymptotic properties of the bootstrap test procedures are derived, and their small-sample properties are studied. The simulation study also considers the standard asymptotic test versions and the Johansen cointegration test for comparison.

This paper derives an exact discrete time representation corresponding to a triangular cointegrated continuous time system with mixed stock and flow variables and observable stochastic trends. The discrete time model inherits the triangular structure of the underlying continuous time system and does not suffer from the apparent excess differencing that has been found in some related work. It can therefore serve as a basis for the study of the asymptotic sampling properties of estimators of the model's parameters. Some further analytical and computational results that enable Gaussian estimation to be implemented are also provided.

This paper shows how large-dimensional dynamic factor models are suitable for structural analysis. We argue that all identification schemes employed in structural vector autoregression (SVAR) analysis can be easily adapted in dynamic factor models. Moreover, the “problem of fundamentalness,” which is intractable in SVARs, can be solved, provided that the impulse-response functions are sufficiently heterogeneous. We provide consistent estimators for the impulse-response functions and for (n, T) rates of convergence. An exercise with U.S. macroeconomic data shows that our solution of the fundamentalness problem may have important empirical consequences.

This note proves the consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi–maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) of the parameters of a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) model with martingale difference centered squared innovations. The results are obtained under mild conditions and generalize and improve those in Lee and Hansen (1994, Econometric Theory 10, 29–52) for the local QMLE in semistrong GARCH(1,1) models. In particular, no restrictions on the conditional mean are imposed. Our proofs closely follow those in Francq and Zakoïan (2004, Bernoulli 10, 605–637) for independent and identically distributed innovations.

Our paper is in the spirit of Rex Bergstrom's interests and research in cyclical growth models and his meticulous attention to underlying data series. We develop a new quarterly real GDP series for post–World War II New Zealand, derive a new “benchmark” set of classical business cycle turning points, and establish nonparametric classical cycle characteristics. Markov-switching models, estimated by Gibbs-sampling methods, are used to derive mean growth rate and volatility regimes and to add to existing knowledge. The resulting properties, involving cycle asymmetries, volatility, diversity and duration dependence, and differing mean growth rate and volatility regimes, can be used to underpin a next generation of cyclical growth models for New Zealand, in the Bergstrom tradition.

In this paper we consider generalized method of moments–based (GMM-based) estimation and inference for the panel AR(1) model when the data are persistent and the time dimension of the panel is fixed. We find that the nature of the weak instruments problem of the Arellano–Bond (Arellano and Bond, 1991, Review of Economic Studies 58, 277–297) estimator depends on the distributional properties of the initial observations. Subsequently, we derive local asymptotic approximations to the finite-sample distributions of the Arellano–Bond estimator and the System estimator, respectively, under a variety of distributional assumptions about the initial observations and discuss the implications of the results we obtain for doing inference. We also propose two Lagrange multiplier–type (LM-type) panel unit root tests.

This paper considers inference for parameters defined by moment inequalities and equalities. The parameters need not be identified. For a specified class of test statistics, this paper establishes the uniform asymptotic validity of subsampling, m out of n bootstrap, and “plug-in asymptotic” tests and confidence intervals for such parameters. Establishing uniform asymptotic validity is crucial in moment inequality problems because the pointwise asymptotic distributions of the test statistics of interest have discontinuities as functions of the true distribution that generates the observations.

The size results are quite general because they hold without specifying the particular form of the moment conditions—only 2 + δ moments finite are required. The results allow for independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) and dependent observations and for preliminary consistent estimation of identified parameters.

We consider robust methods for estimation and unit root (UR) testing in autoregressions with infrequent outliers whose number, size, and location can be random and unknown. We show that in this setting standard inference based on ordinary least squares estimation of an augumented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) regression may not be reliable, because (a) clusters of outliers may lead to inconsistent estimation of the autoregressive parameters and (b) large outliers induce a jump component in the asymptotic distribution of UR test statistics. In the benchmark case of known outlier location, we discuss why the augmentation of the ADF regression with appropriate dummy variables not only ensures consistent parameter estimation but also gives rise to UR tests with significant power gains, growing with the number and the size of the outliers. In the case of unknown outlier location, the dummy-based approach is compared with a robust, mixed Gaussian, quasi maximum likelihood (QML) approach, novel in this context. It is proved that, when the ordinary innovations are Gaussian, the QML and the dummy-based approach are asymptotically equivalent, yielding UR tests with the same asymptotic size and power. Moreover, as a by-product of QML the outlier dates can be consistently estimated. When the innovations display tails fatter than Gaussian, the QML approach ensures further power gains over the dummy-based method. Simulations show that the QML ADF-type t-test, in conjunction with standard Dickey–Fuller critical values, yields the best combination of finite-sample size and power.

This paper proposes the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator–type (Lasso-type) generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. This Lasso-type estimator is formed by the GMM objective function with the addition of a penalty term. The exponent of the penalty term in the regular Lasso estimator is equal to one. However, the exponent of the penalty term in the Lasso-type estimator is less than one in the analysis here. The magnitude of the exponent is reduced to avoid the asymptotic bias. This estimator selects the correct model and estimates it simultaneously. In other words, this method estimates the redundant parameters as zero in the large samples and provides the standard GMM limit distribution for the estimates of the nonzero parameters in the model. The asymptotic theory for our estimator is nonstandard. We conduct a simulation study that shows that the Lasso-type GMM correctly selects the true model much more often than the Bayesian information Criterion (BIC) and another model selection procedure based on the GMM objective function.

Lai and Wei (1983, Annals of Statistics 10, 154–166) state in their Theorem 1 that the estimators of the regression coefficients in the regression , t ∈ ℕ are almost surely (a.s.) consistent under the assumption that the minimum eigenvalue λmin(T) of tends to infinity (a.s.) and log(λmax(T))/λmin(T) → 0 (a.s.) where λmax(T) denotes the maximal eigenvalue. Moreover the rate of convergence in this case equals . In this note xt is taken to be a particular multivariate multifrequency I(1) processes, and almost sure rates of convergence for least squares estimators are established.

Asymptotic theory is developed for local time density estimation for a general class of functionals of integrated and fractionally integrated time series. The main result provides a convenient basis for developing a limit theory for nonparametric cointegrating regression and nonstationary autoregression. The treatment directly involves local time estimation and the density function of the processes under consideration, providing an alternative approach to the Markov chain and Fourier integral methods that have been used in other recent work on these problems.

We extend Bergstrom's 1985 results on nonparametric (NP) estimation in Hilbert spaces to unbounded sample sets. The motivation is to seek the most general possible framework for econometrics, NP estimation with no a priori assumptions on the functional relations nor on the observed data. In seeking the boundaries of the possible, however, we run against a sharp dividing line, which defines a necessary and sufficient condition for NP estimation. We identify this condition somewhat surprisingly with a classic statistical assumption on the relative likelihood of bounded and unbounded events (DeGroot, 2004). Other equivalent conditions are found in other fields: decision theory and choice under uncertainty (monotone continuity axiom (Arrow, 1970), insensitivity to rare events (Chichilnisky, 2000), and dynamic growth models (dictatorship of the present; Chichilnisky, 1996). When the crucial condition works, NP estimation can be extended to the sample space R+. Otherwise the estimators, which are based on Fourier coefficients, do not converge: the underlying distributions are shown to have “heavy tails” and to contain purely finitely additive measures. Purely finitely additive measures are not constructible, and their existence has been shown to be equivalent to the axiom of choice in mathematics. Statistics and econometrics involving purely finitely additive measures are still open issues, which suggests the current limits of econometrics.

We study the finite-sample bias and mean squared error, when properly defined, of the sample coefficient of variation under a general distribution. We employ a Nagar-type expansion and use moments of quadratic forms to derive the results. We find that the approximate bias depends on not only the skewness but also the kurtosis of the distribution, whereas the approximate mean squared error depends on the cumulants up to order 6.

The fundamental contributions made by Paul Newbold have highlighted how crucial it is to detect when economic time series have unit roots. This paper explores the effects that model specification has on our ability to do that. Asymptotic power, a natural choice to quantify these effects, does not accurately predict finite-sample power. Instead, here the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the unit root null and any alternative is used and its numeric and analytic properties detailed. Numerically it behaves in a similar way to finite-sample power. However, because it is analytically available we are able to prove that it is a minimizable function of the degree of trending in any included deterministic component and of the correlation of the underlying innovations. It is explicitly confirmed, therefore, that it is approximately linear trends and negative unit root moving average innovations that minimize the efficacy of unit root inferential tools. Applied to the Nelson and Plosser macroeconomic series the effect that different types of trends included in the model have on unit root inference is clearly revealed.

We propose an efficient semiparametric estimator for the coefficients of a multivariate linear regression model—with a conditional quantile restriction for each equation—in which the conditional distributions of errors given regressors are unknown. The procedure can be used to estimate multiple conditional quantiles of the same regression relationship. The proposed estimator is asymptotically as efficient as if the true optimal instruments were known. Simulation results suggest that the estimation procedure works well in practice and dominates an equation-by-equation efficiency correction if the errors are dependent conditional on the regressors.