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New Models for New Labour: The Political Economy of Labour Party Support, January 1992–April 1997

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Harold D. Clarke ,
Marianne C. Stewart  and
Paul F. Whiteley
Harold D. Clarke
Affiliation:
University of North Texas
Marianne C. Stewart
Affiliation:
University of Texasat Dallas
Paul F. Whiteley
Affiliation:
University of Sheffield
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Abstract

This article uses newly available British time-series data to analyze dynamic interrelationships among Labour vote intentions, perceptions that the Labour leader would make the best prime minister, and Labour party identification. Error-correction models reveal that best prime minister perceptions and party identification have important short- and long-run influences on vote intentions. Tests of rival models indicate that personal economic expectations outperform other economic evaluations in the vote intention and party identification analyses. National retrospective judgments perform well in analyses of best prime minister perceptions, and emotional reactions to economic conditions significantly influence these perceptions as well as party identification.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 92 , Issue 3 , September 1998 , pp. 559 - 575
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1998

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