¹ Binder, Leonard et al., Crises and Sequences in Political Development, p. ix Google Scholar.

² Pye, Lucian W. and Ryland, Kay K., Activities of the Committee on Comparative Politics, 1954–1970 (New York: Social Science Research Council, 1971), p. 8 Google Scholar.

³ Ibid., pp. 1–2.

⁴ Almond, Gabriel A., Political Development: Essays in Heuristic Theory (Boston: Little, Brown and Co., 1970), p. 12 Google Scholar.

⁵ Pye, and Ryland, , Activities of the Committee, p. 2 Google Scholar.

⁶ This is implicit in the statement in Pye and Ryland, p. 2.

⁷ Almond, Gabriel A., “Foreword,” in Pye, , Communications and Political Development, p. vii Google Scholar. The Forewords to the next two volumes contain similar statements. In Political Development, Almond points out that the Committee “took on the task of encouraging the development of theory which would enable political science to deal more adequately with the causation of political phenomena and with the variety of political forms” (p. 15).

⁸ Pye, and Ryland, , Activities of the Committee, pp. 6, 70–71 Google Scholar.

⁹ We must, of course, recognize that some members of the Committee had access to funds for research that were not an official part of the Committee's activities. Some of the research supported by these funds has contributed to the theory-building work of the Committee.

¹⁰ See Pye, and Ryland, , Activities of the Committee, p. 8 Google Scholar. Another criterion is the impressive number of publications that emerged from the Committee's research activities. According to the authors, the Committee “helped in the production of 296 written reports, including books and articles in journals, unpublished research memoranda, and other documents.”

¹¹ A short conference on each of the first four volumes was held between early September 1961 and late June 1962. No specific conference was held for the volume on Political Culture; instead, the authors were given a “memorandum, suggestive but not prescriptive, which outlined subjects that might be generally relevant for the analysis of a political culture” ( Pye, and Verba, , Political Culture and Political Development, p. vii Google Scholar). The planning conference for the Crises and Sequences volume was held in the summer of 1963. According to Pye: “Our focus at that time was on conceptualizing political systems, identifying their universal functions, and describing the processes of political modernization and development” (“Foreword,” Crisis and Sequences, p. vii). In 1968, the Committee held another conference on the Crises and Sequences book, during which the preliminary work of the authors was discussed with other scholars.

¹² Almond, Gabriel A., “Research in Comparative Politics: Plans of a New Council Committee,” Items, 8 (03 1954), p. 2 Google Scholar.

¹³ Pye, , “Introduction,” in Pye, and Verba, , Political Culture and Political Development, pp. 13–14 Google Scholar.

¹⁴ Ibid., p. 14. The reader encounters in some of the other volumes similar statements concerning the objective sought and the research strategies employed. “[A] first measure in seeking intellectual order is to survey and appraise existing knowledge, and this has been a prime purpose behind our experiment” ( Pye, , Communications and Political Development, p. x Google Scholar). “As we are able to gather more information concerning the political forms, processes, and policies with which the newer nations experiment, it is hoped that our theoretical understanding of the dynamics of political change will be enriched and that, as a result, additional contributions can be made to the evolution of a genuine comparative political science” ( Almond, , “Foreword,” in LaPalombara, , Bureaucracy and Political Development, p. vii Google Scholar). “[An] endeavor of this kind can do little more than suggest the richness of thought and information that the varied papers of the authors represent” ( LaPalombara, , “Introduction,” Bureaucracy and Political Development, p. 6 Google Scholar). “Although no rigid uniformity has been sought in outlook or organization, the treatment is broadly parallel” ( Ward, and Rustow, , Political Modernization in Japan and Turkey, p. 12 Google Scholar). The editors of the introductory chapters in the volumes on Education and Political Parties introduce a more systematic, theme-oriented format, although not all of the contributors address the essential themes that were laid out.

¹⁵ Political Parties and Political Development, p. 399. In his introduction to the fifth volume, Pye, said: “… we have not tried to adhere to a rigid definition of political development. We have instead sought to incorporate in our analysis most of the dimensions of political change and modernization which students of the new states tend to refer to when speaking of political development” (Political Culture and Political Development, pp. 12–13)Google Scholar.

¹⁶ To document the various uses of the term in the several volumes would require a lengthy footnote. Pye lists some of the ways in which the concept has been defined in his introduction to the work on Political Culture (pp. 11–12). He presents a good discussion of the concept and its diverse meanings in his Aspects of Political Development (Boston: Little, Brown and Co., 1966), pp. 33–45 Google Scholar.

¹⁷ The following are examples of critical comments of the first six volumes by reviewing scholars in this journal. Communications and Political Development: “[The essays] are in no way cumulative, and not always complementary” ( Fagen, Richard B., American Political Science Review, 57 [09, 1963], 676–677 Google Scholar). Bureaucracy and Political Development: “However, most of the other contributors [except Eisenstadt and Riggs] never stopped to ask what this volume was to be all about and thus confronted the editor with a difficult task indeed” ( Diamont, Alfred, American Political Science Review, 58 [12, 1964], 1032–1033 CrossRefGoogle Scholar). Political Modernization in Japan and Turkey: “Few of the chapters on the two nations make explicit comparisons, …” ( Mendel, Douglas H. Jr., American Political Science Review, 58 [12, 1964], 1038–1039 CrossRefGoogle Scholar). Education and Political Development: “It would have helped had more precise definitions of different kinds of political elites been set forth, since they are used by the several authors differently—and even by the same author … The contributions are very uneven and do not present similar research results from different countries … The Committee … should consider being more selective and more restrictive as to focus next time around” ( Weidner, Edward W., American Political Science Review, 60 [03, 1966], 121–123 CrossRefGoogle Scholar). Political Culture and Political Development: “There are rather fundamental differences in the conceptualizations …” ( Zolberg, Aristide R., American Political Science Review, 60 [03, 1966], 119–121 CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Since the reviewer objects to the “premature achievement of theoretical monopolies,” he regards the representation of different approaches and themes as a “major quality" of the book). Political Parties and Political Development: “[The] articles are special studies and not really additive theoretically … [The] concepts utilized are often unclear and the operationalization of key variables left to the imagination of the reader. There is no systematic empirical analysis attempted” ( Eldersveld, Samuel J., American Political Science Review, 61 [12, 1967], 1166–1167 CrossRefGoogle Scholar). Most of these reviewers were more critical of these books than we have been. In fact, we regard much of the criticism as a bit premature, since the Committee, at this juncture in its activities, was explicitly in the preliminary stage of theory development which involved surveying data and seeking stimulating ideas and insights.

¹⁸ Crises and Sequences, pp. 74–75. The notion of the “development syndrome” was first presented by Coleman in the Education volume, pp. 15–16.

¹⁹ Crises and Sequences, p. 75. Coleman's definition of political development still leaves considerable ambiguity. If the political development process is an interaction among a class of processes, a class of imperatives, and a type of capacity, then the more highly developed a political system becomes, the greater will be this interaction. According to Coleman's formulation, the levels of the variables do not enter into the definition until later, and then in a manner that leads to a quite different definition. In fact, high political development as high interaction is never used in the book. Instead, greater political development is conceived of as greater differentiation, greater equality, and greater capacity. Why the authors should force the careful reader to explore the implications of the interactions and to sort out the intricate shifts between process-oriented and structure-oriented definitions perplexes us.

²⁰ Crises and Sequences, p. 77.

²¹ Ibid., pp. 78–80 (emphasis added).

²² Significant subthemes are, of course, introduced by individual authors, but this summary catches the essence of the concern. Without this concern, there would be no reason for a book with this subject matter and title.

²³ Crises and Sequences, p. 104.

²⁴ Ibid., p. 131.

²⁵ Ibid., p. 136.

²⁶ See below, pp. 988–989.

²⁷ Crises and Sequences, p. 187.

²⁸ Ibid., p. 208.

²⁹ Ibid., pp. 205–206, 227.

³⁰ Ibid., pp. 235–236.

³¹ Ibid., p. 265.

³² Ibid., p. 25.

³³ Ibid., p. 24.

³⁴ The essay was originally written as “an internal memorandum to alert the other authors” to certain conceptual problems. (See Pye, , “Foreword,” in Crises and Sequences, p. ix.Google Scholar)

³⁵ Ibid., p. ix.

³⁶ Besides utilizing their own research for the impressive knowledge about the developing areas which they display, the authors draw upon the Committee's earlier works in formulating the empirical generalizations that emerge in Crises and Sequences. The book on Political Culture, which has implications for identity, legitimacy, and participation problems, is an important antecedent of the Crises and Sequences volume; in the wrapup commentary, one of the editors treats the developmental crises and presents a short discussion of the question of sequencing. Political Parties and Political Development obviously deals with political participation; but it is also relevant to the treatment of legitimacy and penetration. The volume on Bureaucracy is clearly related to problems of penetration, but it is not used in this context as explicitly as one might have expected. Education and Political Development is also concerned with penetration, but its heavy emphasis on socialization makes a good portion of the content relevant to the analysis of identity and legitimacy problems. As we have already indicated, an early discussion of the development syndrome appears in this work. Political Modernization in Japan and Turkey bears upon all of the crisis areas, and was employed particularly in the discussion of the identity problem. The first volume in the series, Communications and Political Development, contains material that influences ideas on penetration, integration, participation, and—to the extent that communications processes affect “rising expectations”— distribution.

³⁷ Other examples would include systematic comparative research and even case studies in which the strong inferential principle is employed.

³⁸ Crises and Sequences, p. 283.

³⁹ Ibid., p. 285.

⁴⁰ Ibid., p. 286 (emphasis added). Model is the key term in Verba's chapter; it is used ten times on this page alone. But we must cenfess that we are still not sure what the author precisely means by the term. It is clear, however, that a model is a very good thing.

⁴¹ See ibid., p. 283. We assume that by a “precise” model of social change Verba has in mind “a coherent and interdependent set of propositions.”

⁴² Arrow, Kenneth J., Social Choice and Individual Values (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1951)Google Scholar.

⁴³ Crises and Sequences, p. 164. We assume that most readers will agree that this definition is “loose” in the sense in which Verba uses the adjective.

⁴⁴ Arrow, p. 23.

⁴⁵ Ibid., pp. 28, 30.

⁴⁶ Crises and Sequences, p. 155

⁴⁷ We should call attention to the fact that a number of these “may be”-type propositions can be found in the other volumes. An example of another form of proposition that is difficult to falsify is the following: “… the higher the degree of differentiation of group and other relationships is in a political system, the greater is the probability for the development of political parties, though this probability may be reduced by the presence of other impeding conditions.” ( Chambers, William N., “Parties and Nation-Building in America,” in LaPalombara, and Weiner, , Political Parties and Political Development, pp. 83–84.Google Scholar)

⁴⁸ Arrow, p. 59. All technical terms (e.g., “imposed,” “dictatorial,” and “satisfactory”) are precisely defined.

⁴⁹ The references cited by the authors of Crises and Sequences reveal a secondary but interesting point. Literature that is relevant to the subject matter but employs an analytic, deductive approach is ignored. We find it difficult to imagine, for example, a chapter on political participation published in the 1970s that does not even refer to Mancur Olson's The Logic of Collective Action or does not address itself to some of the analysis set forth in Anthony Downs's An Economic Theory of Democracy.

⁵⁰ Crises and Sequences, p. 287.

⁵¹ Ibid.

⁵² Rather than attempting to adapt the Blalock causal analysis technique to longitudinal data, we would suggest going directly to Sewall Wright' method of path coefficients. While employing a logical structure comparable to causal analysis, Wright's technique was developed especially for the analysis of evolutionary phenomena. His original presentation was published in the 1920s. (See Wright, Sewall, “The Relative Importance of Heredity and Environment in Determining the Piebald Patterns of Guinea Pigs,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 6 [06 15, 1920], 320–332 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; “Correlation and Causation,” Journal of Agricultural Research 20 [01 3, 1921], 557–585.Google Scholar) For further elaboration, see Wright's, “The Method of Path Coefficients,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 5 [1934], 161–215 CrossRefGoogle Scholar, and “The Interpretations of Multivariate Systems,” in Statistics and Mathematics in Biology, ed. Kempthome, Oscar, Bancroft, Theodore A.. Gowen, John W. and Lush, Jay L. (Ames, Iowa: Iowa State College Press, 1954), pp. 11–34 Google Scholar. An interesting discussion is contained in Tukey, John W., “Causation, Regression, and Path Analysis,” in Kempthorne, pp. 35–66 Google Scholar. John V. Gillespie has already explored the use of both the Blalock and the Wright techniques for the analysis of temporal sequences. He detects certain advantages in the Wright approach for the comparative analysis of time-series data. (See Gillespie, John V., The Application of Causal Models to Comparative Political Analysis [M.A. thesis, University of Minnesota, 1966], pp. 131–182.Google Scholar)

⁵³ See Apter, David E., The Political Kingdom in Uganda: A Study in Bureaucratic Nationalism (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1961), pp. 85–91 Google Scholar.

⁵⁴ Crises and Sequences, pp. 292–294.

⁵⁵ LaPalombara, and Weiner, , Political Parties and Political Development, p. 18 Google Scholar. See also p. 224.

⁵⁶ Crises and Sequences, p. 136.

⁵⁷ Ibid., p. 302.

⁵⁸ Pye, , Political Culture, p. 9 Google Scholar.

⁵⁹ Some of the important differences are discussed in Simon, Herbert, The Sciences of the Artificial (Cambridge, Mass.: M.I.T. Press, 1969)Google Scholar.

⁶⁰ Crises and Sequences, p. 283.

⁶¹ We recognize that the position we have taken in this essay represents a minority view in all of the social sciences except economics. For a criticism—very much like our own—of the state of research efforts in psychology, see Meehl, Paul E., “Theory Testing in Psychology and Physics: A Methodological Paradox,” Philosophy of Science, 34 (06, 1967), 103–115 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁶² We wish to acknowledge a special debt to Professor Harry Eckstein for contributing to our thoughts on the reward structure of the discipline.

⁶³ The Taming of the Shrew, Act I, Scene ii.