Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-5wvtr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-18T16:21:56.708Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Costs of War: A Rational Expectations Approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita*
Affiliation:
University of Rochester
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

A model of war costs is presented that is based on the utility nations expect to derive from the war as well as on the technological gap between adversaries and the short-term tactical tit-for-tat calculations that must occur on the battlefield. This model explains nearly three-quarters of the variance in battle deaths per million population per month of war experienced by war initiators. Approximately one-quarter of the variance in war costs is accounted for by considering the position of the initiator's opponent. A second model, based on marginal changes in expected utility, technological differences, and tit-for-tat, is shown to account for more than one-third the variance, regardless of whether war costs are viewed by the initiator or an opponent in a war. This study, therefore, provides a useful explanation of war intensity and contributes to the cumulative, lawlike implications of the expected-utility approach on which it is based.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 77 , Issue 2 , June 1983 , pp. 347 - 357
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1983

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Altfeld, M., & Bueno de Mesquita, B.Choosing sides in wars. International Studies Quarterly, 1979, 23, 87–112.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, B.Measuring systemic polarity. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1975, 19, 187–216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, B.An expected utility theory of international conflict. American Political Science Review, 1980, 74, 917–931.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, B.The war trap. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1981a.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, B.An expected utility explanation of conflict escalation. Paper prepared for the Charles Merriam Seminar, University of Illinois, 02 1981b.Google Scholar
Hartmann, F.The relations of nations (5th ed.). New York: Macmillan, 1978.Google Scholar
Holsti, O., North, R., & Brody, R.Perception and action in the 1914 crisis. In Singer, J. D. (Ed.), Quantitative international politics. New York: Free Press, 1968.Google Scholar
Organski, A. F. K., & Kugler, J.The war ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980.Google Scholar
Ray, J.Global politics. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1979.Google Scholar
Richardson, L. F.Arms and insecurity. Chicago: Quadrangle, 1960.Google Scholar
Singer, J. D., Bremer, S., & Stuckey, J.Capability distribution, uncertainty and major power war, 1820-1965. In Russett, B. (Ed.), Peace, war, and numbers. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications, 1972.Google Scholar
Singer, J. D., & Small, M.The wages of war. New York: John Wiley, 1972.Google Scholar
Stoessinger, J.Why nations go to war. New York: St. Martin's, 1974.Google Scholar
Wittman, D.How a war ends: a rational model approach. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1979, 23, 743–763.Google Scholar
Zinnes, D.The expression and perception of hostility in a prewar crisis: 1914. In Singer, J. D. (Ed.), Quantitative international politics. New York: Free Press, 1968.Google Scholar
Zinnes, D.Why war? Evidence on the outbreak of international conflict. In Gurr, T. R. (Ed.), Hand-book of political conflict: theory and research. New York: Free Press, 1980.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.