Abstract

In this chapter, we analyze education and employment transition patterns for 18–28-year-olds in Germany between 1983 and 2012 based on longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP, v29). We employ sequence analysis in order to identify education and employment transition patterns for three overlapping age groups (18–22, 21–25, and 24–28). Next, we provide an analysis of changes of these patterns over time and discuss these changes with regards to inequality dynamics. To complement our analysis, we provide a description of key institutional, social, and macroeconomic contextual factors that contribute to changing conditions for labor market entry before and after the crisis. We find that despite the expansion of higher education, the dual apprenticeship system is still the modal norm for accessing the labor market, providing a relatively smooth entry due to the close association between school- and firm-based learning. In contrast to this general view, we also find evidence of increasing polarization with respect to labor market status between upper and lower labor market segments. Women, migrants, and the low skilled are especially likely to experience more precarious education and employment transitions, often leading to or characterized by long-term unemployment. This finding is particularly strong for younger cohorts, although it cannot be directly attributed to economic consequences of the financial crisis. Instead, increased precariousness appears to be part of an ongoing process related to labor market deregulation since the late 1990s in Germany.

Introduction

As one of the main events identified in life course research, the transition to adulthood is marked by a number of individual status changes relating to education and employment (Buchmann 1989). In recent years, however, parallel macro-level trends – including the expansion of higher education and labor market deregulation – have brought about considerable changes to employment and education transitions (see Ashton, this volume). In particular, the reverse ordering or delay of life events are indicative of the de-standardization of the life course (Billari and Liefbroer 2010; Brückner and Mayer 2005; Elzinga and Liefbroer 2007; Shanahan 2000). As pathways to adulthood have also diversified, options for postsecondary education and training have lengthened the average school life expectancy and blurred boundaries between school and work.