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11 - Change detection, monitoring and prediction

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 March 2011

Graham Harris
Affiliation:
University of Tasmania
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Summary

The implications of the new paradigms for monitoring and prediction: new techniques for modelling ecosystems.

If we are trying to understand pattern and process in the natural world, if we are trying to determine what we know and whether change has occurred, and if we are trying to figure out what to do about it, then unfortunately we can only rely on samples to provide the evidence – snapshots of reality. We collect data in various ways, usually at our convenience: often weekly, almost never on Mondays or Fridays, and rarely for more than a couple of years because of the tenure of governments, programmes, grants and graduate students. We do have some new technologies that will revolutionise our understanding of environmental pattern and process. From satellites and spacecraft we can image the entire globe and from various automatic sensors we can obtain time series of data from the depths of the oceans. Nevertheless, we are forced to infer pattern and process and to take decisions based on parlous sources of information. Surprisingly, perhaps, as the global environmental problems grow, we are actually collecting fewer data in some cases than we were a decade ago because of smaller governments, reduced funding, de-skilling and cuts to government programmes. We are flying almost blind while arguing endlessly about the course we are on and not looking out for hazards and risks up ahead.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2007

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