More than a decade ago the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) took on the mantle of leadership in promoting multilateral security dialogue in East Asia and was expected to remain its primary coordinator for many years to come.

But nowadays ASEAN's “inner resources” to further carry out that diplomatic mission seem to be heavily depleted. Such an outcome is predetermined by recent profound changes in regional “strategic equation” and their far-reaching implications for ASEAN as a political-diplomatic unity.

This chapter focuses on the most important prerequisites, as well as the development process and possible consequences, of the afore-mentioned trend. The author hopes his efforts might make a useful contribution to the overall understanding of complicated processes that will determine the shape of the strategic environment in East Asia.

RATIONALE FOR INITIATING THE PAN-REGIONAL DIALOGUE ON SECURITY MATTERS

In the first few years after the end of the Cold War, the balance of power in East Asia was in flux. The factors that directly contributed to the emergence of the above-mentioned trend are outlined below.

First, the beginning of the 1990s witnessed profound changes in the U.S. security commitments to its East Asian allies. As it was, Washington intended to substantially reduce its air and naval forces in the region, the first indication of which was suspension of military contacts with the Philippines. In the light of those developments, the leadership of many pro-U.S. countries were of the opinion that East Asia might be losing its rank in Washington's post-Cold War “order of priority”.

Second, the disintegration of the Soviet Union totally upset the previous pattern of international relations, a reality which had significant repercussions for East Asian stability. The primary questions that arose in East Asian capitals in that regard were what countries would be chosen as Russia's closest “Eastern” allies and by what means Russia would be able to enhance its rapidly declining influence in the region.