OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT STATISTICS

Chapter 4 laid out the evolution of the use of numerical data by historians up to our time. Let me stress that presently only a small minority of historians uses quantitative methods of some kind, and I would guess that fewer than half of those use them with any sophistication. Historians by and large blanch at mathematical equations and have now largely left to economists and sociologists the application of more advanced quantitative methods to social data. As I mentioned in Chapter 4, economic history is no longer done in history departments but in economics departments and in business schools, where some fine institutional histories have been produced. Likewise, as mentioned, the sociology department has taken over from historians most quantitative social history except for demographic history, which is still done by a small band of specially trained historians. This is where we left off in Chapter 4, where I described what quantitative history was in earlier times and what it has become today, when history is without a doubt the weakest of the social sciences in using quantitative methods. There are very few areas where historians have been innovative in the use of quantitative methods. Some original programming has been done. For instance, the Soundex Index for linking records was developed by historians. This is a rather complex computer program that lets you link similar-sounding names from different lists, say, “Smythe” and “Smith.” It then can tell you the probability that these are the same person.