He was worried about the Russian armaments [programme and] about the planned railway construction; and detected [in these] the preparations for a war against us in 1916. He complained about the inadequacy of the railway links that we had at the Western Front against France; and hinted […at] whether it would not be better to strike now, rather than wait.

Warburg ‘advised decidedly against’ this: [I] sketched the domestic political situation in England for him (Home Rule), the difficulties for France of maintaining the three year service period, the financial crisis in which France already found itself, and the probable unreliability of the Russian army. I strongly advised [him] to wait patiently, keeping our heads down for a few more years. ‘We are growing stronger every year; our enemies are getting weaker internally.’

The exchange is open to a variety of interpretations. That the Kaiser was willing to confide in a banker in this way would seem to confirm the importance of business interests in Wilhel mine high politics. That the Kaiser was contemplating the idea of a ‘preventive’ or preemptive war against Russia even before the Sarajevo assassination would appear to confirm that the German government premeditated war in 1914.