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8 - Getting the prognosis right

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2014

Charles Perrings
Charles Perrings
Affiliation:
Arizona State University
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Summary

Understanding the “anthropogenic” in anthropogenic biodiversity change

The main elements of the biodiversity problem identified in Part I of this book are the following. The current extinction event is the outcome of human decisions to harvest some species, to domesticate others, to protect a few, to destroy those seen to be harmful, and to neglect those whose usefulness is unclear. It is the consequence of decisions to convert some ecosystems for use in agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, industry, commerce, and human habitation, and to impact others through the diversion of water, the extraction of minerals, the construction of road, rail, and energy infrastructures, and the emission of pollutants to soil, air, and water. Although there have been many unintended consequences of these decisions, none was taken blindly. The people who made them were behaving in a purposeful way, taking into account their goals, their resources, the social and environmental constraints within which they acted, and the information available about the likely consequences of alternative choices. Few decisions may have been completely informed, but none was completely uninformed. People’s choices may have been more limited in some cases than others, but never have people had no choice at all. Understanding anthropogenic biodiversity change requires understanding of the goals people have when they make decisions that alter the richness or abundance of species. It requires understanding of the conditions within which they make decisions, and the information they have about the consequences of their actions. It requires understanding of the way those decisions change when conditions or information change.

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Our Uncommon Heritage
Biodiversity Change, Ecosystem Services, and Human Wellbeing
 , pp. 251 - 279
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2014

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