Imagine that one morning your telephone rings and you find yourself speaking with the King of Sweden, who informs you in surprisingly good English that you have been selected as this year's recipient of a Nobel Prize. How would you feel, and how long would you feel that way? Although some things are better than instant celebrity and a significant bank deposit, most people would be hard pressed to name three, and thus most people would probably expect this news to create a sharp and lasting upturn in their emotional lives. Now imagine that the telephone call is from your college president, who regrets to inform you (in surprisingly good English) that the Board of Regents has dissolved your department, revoked your appointment, and stored your books in little cardboard boxes in the hallway. How would you feel, and how long would you feel that way? Losing one's livelihood has all the hallmarks of a major catastrophe, and most people would probably expect this news to have an enduring negative impact on their emotional lives.

Such expectations are often important and often wrong. They are important because people's actions are based in large measure on their implicit and explicit predictions of the emotional consequences of future events.