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1 - Governance, Complexity, Computation, and Rationality

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 February 2023

Scott de Marchi
Affiliation:
Duke University, North Carolina
Michael Laver
Affiliation:
New York University
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Summary

We outline the core argument of the book and steps taken to establish this. We begin by sketching component parts of the governance cycle: election, government formation, and government survival. Noting that the analysis of this complex system is intractable for traditions deductive methods of formal modeling, we preview two different computational methods for analyzing it. First, we model “functionally rational” artificial agents who use simple but effective rules of thumbs to navigate their high stakes but complex environment (ABM). Second, we specify an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm which, by massively repeated self-play, teaches itself to find near-optimal strategies for playing what is in effect a traditional, but intractable, noncooperative game. We conclude by sketching the empirical approach we use to first calibrate and exercise the models on training data and then test them on out-of-sample test data.

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The Governance Cycle in Parliamentary Democracies
A Computational Social Science Approach
, pp. 9 - 35
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2023

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