The many and complex manifestations of contemporary armed violence have a wide array of negative–and occasionally positive–impacts on the development of states and societies, as well as on the well-being of communities. In recent years numerous studies have provided evidence of the linkages between security, violence, and development. In addition, various analyses have examined the regional, national, sub-national, and local effects of violence on development.

Although the evidence is often only partial, it highlights two important conclusions:

1. ▪ that the effects of armed violence go well beyond the loss of life and physical injuries; and

2. ▪ that the global costs and effects of armed violence are much greater in non-conflict than in conflict settings.

The effects–and costs–of armed violence on development include, but are not limited to, spending on public order and internal security (such as police personnel), expenditure on private security by businesses and individuals, and the burden associated with forcibly displaced persons. In 2013 alone, there were an estimated 51.2 million forcibly displaced persons worldwide–the highest figure since comprehensive recordkeeping began in 1989 (UNHCR, 2014). In economic terms, the welfare cost of collective and interpersonal violence is estimated to represent about 1.63 per cent of global GDP (Hoeffler and Fearon, 2014, p. iii)–or up to USD 1.4 trillion. This report estimates that the cost of homicide in 2010 alone reached USD 171 billion–roughly the equivalent of Finland's GDP that year (see Chapter Five). Even these estimates do not capture the impact of violence and insecurity in terms of pain and suffering, or the negative impact on people's behaviour and economic activities. In conflict situations, the destruction of physical capital and infrastructure–roads, buildings, clinics, schools–and loss of human capital–through displacement and migration–represent serious development costs. Even in non-conflict settings, where criminal or interpersonal violence does not cause widespread physical destruction: