Each of the Arab Gulf states faces major challenges in terms of its stability and security interests—only some of which can be addressed by creating more effective military forces, security forces, alliances within the Gulf and alliances with outside powers. These challenges vary from country to country, but they include religious extremism and terrorism; asymmetric and missile threats from Iran; internal sectarian, ethnic and tribal divisions; the need to deal with massive demographic pressures and a “youth bulge” that requires the creation of massive numbers of jobs and new social infrastructure as well as stable political and social evolution to avoid political upheavals that can do as much or more to disrupt reform and modernization as to achieve them.

Meeting Four Emerging Threats

Each Arab Gulf state must reshape every element of its security structure to move away from a past focus on conventional warfare and compartmented internal security efforts toward a spectrum of four interactive challenges:

1. • Internal security, counterterrorism (CT) and civil–military stability operations—often involving outside powers and arms transfers.

2. • Low to mid-level asymmetric wars that may involve conventional forces.

3. • Conventional wars using asymmetric means.

4. • Use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), weapons of mass effectiveness, and cyber-warfare, as well as wild card patterns of conflict and escalation.