Hobbes without a Hegemon

Deflating America's hegemonic pretensions does not, in itself, produce a convincing rival. If the United States cannot be the world's unipolar hegemon, surely no one else can either. Any other nation would have even more limited prospects. Eventually, several great powers may be able to challenge anyone else's global dominance. China, for example, might grow strong enough, even by itself, to prevent American hegemony in Asia. Nevertheless, China would still be very far – culturally, diplomatically, militarily, or economically – from being able to impose its own global or perhaps even regional supremacy. Nor is anyone else likely to possess the universal appeal, or the intellectual, military, diplomatic, or economic means to play a global hegemonic role. Arguably, the most plausible alternative to America would be Europe, which has a still living history of global domination and now has potential resources that, in theory, rival those of the United States. But to bid for global hegemony, Europe would have to focus its power and centralize its own governance – in other words, transform itself into a centralized federation like the United States. Europe probably will move in this direction but nevertheless stop far short of where the U.S. is today.

Today's trends belie not only realist expectations of Hobbesian hegemony but also liberal expectations of Kantian perpetual peace. An increasingly plural world system presents abundant prospects for conflict.