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14 - Prospects for European monetary policy and EMU

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 December 2023

Michael Heine
Affiliation:
Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin
Hansjörg Herr
Affiliation:
Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Recht
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Summary

The EMU with the introduction of the euro has been a far-reaching step for European integration. Such steps usually do not happen without fundamental political breaks like wars. In Europe, the integration was peaceful and driven by the motivation to create a stable framework for economic prosperity and to help strengthen Europe's voice in an evolving more multipolar world. Unfortunately, the EMU still has not been able to create a monetary union that is resilient against internal and/or external shocks. The Great Financial Crisis and the following Great Recession hit the EMU without sufficient institutional and political structures to cope with such crises. Looking at the development from 2008 until early 2020, the conclusion that must be drawn is that the management of the crisis was poor, for example, when compared with the United States, and not approached with theoretically ideal policies. The economic, social and political costs of the poor crisis management in the EMU were high, especially in the countries which had to follow policies of the Troika or which implemented such policies to avoid the Troika. One can speak of a lost decade in a number of EMU countries and in the whole EMU of a development towards more inequality, more precarious jobs and more political polarization.

Crisis developments led to a number of positive integration steps in the EMU, for example, an EMU-wide banking supervision at the ECB, but in other areas progress was poor. It is worrisome that in the EMU the crisis after 2008 has not yet been overcome; refinancing rates of the ECB in early 2020 are still zero and quantitative easing is still in place. But the ECB should not be blamed. As the only powerful supranational EMU institution, it was pushed into a position in which it took over stabilizing functions for the EMU and made policies which went far beyond the mandate it was given.

In early 2020 Europe was hit by the Covid-19 crisis which developed into the deepest recession since the Second World War. As with all crises, the Covid-19 crisis provides an opportunity for big structural changes. The pressure of the crisis may lead to substantial further integration steps in the EMU, but also potentially in the EU.

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Publisher: Agenda Publishing
Print publication year: 2020

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