As in the case of NATO enlargement, rationalist institutionalism accounts for the CEECs' desire to join the European Union but cannot explain why the EU members decided to start accession negotiations with the associated CEECs.

The CEECs and EU membership

The welfare approach to enlargement offers a largely convincing explanation of why the CEECs wanted to join the European Union.

The CEECs will reap net welfare benefits from membership in the EU. In general, the economies of the CEE candidates for EU membership will benefit both from integration into the Community market and from the redistributive policies of the EU.

1. The economies of the CEECs will grow as a result of accession. In their study of the benefits of EU accession for the CEECs, Baldwin, François and Portes (1997: 138) come to the conclusion that the GDP of the CEECs will grow by approximately 1.5 percent as a result of the elimination of tariffs, the adoption of the EU common tariff and unrestricted access to the single market. If it is further assumed that membership in the EU will considerably reduce the risk of investments in the CEECs and thus help to attract foreign capital, the study even arrives at an 18.8 percent increase in real income for the CEECs (1997: 147). Although much less optimistic, the more recent enlargement study by the French Commissariat du Plan, which is based on a review of other studies, still comes to the conclusion that the growth effect of enlargement will be about 5–6.5 percent annually.[…]