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Chapter 5 - The wake-up calls of Election 2014

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 April 2018

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Summary

Election 2014 offered a microcosm of insights into how the ANC maintains power in South Africa. It concerns more than endorsement by the people. The ANC's victory showed how skilled strategists in a well-resourced campaign of long duration, well supported by the state, and shrewd in the use of media and information can help build a victory of note in circumstances of attitudinal discontent and budding voter realignment. Before the election the ANC's vulnerable underbelly had become all too visible. Then the ANC used the election campaign to refurbish its liberation credentials and mobilise the national consciousness.

The ANC built its campaign on the fertile soil of deep voter loyalty. Even if ANC supporters were critical, they found it difficult to take the step of switching to other parties. This orientation assisted the ‘chosen party’ to produce a victory above 60 per cent. Nevertheless, the ANC remained on shifting ground. Neither its iconic liberation status nor the delivery potential that might have assured seamless electoral allegiance was working as well as desired. The ANC received wake-up calls. The result showed that substantial segments of the middle and working classes who had benefited from ANC rule were now willing to either vote against the ANC or to abstain. The ANC's own analyses of its 2014 result told the story of how it felt betrayed by those who had switched their votes to the EFF or the DA. The ANC was seemingly unable to contemplate how 200 000 fewer voters, despite an electorate that had grown by 2.5 million from five years before, refused to accept its campaign's ‘good story’ as sufficient reason to endorse it.

The electoral verdicts in the metropolitan areas pointed to the crux of the matter: the ANC's decline despite its dominance, especially in the Gauteng metro trio of Ekurhuleni, Tshwane and Johannesburg. Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality voters confirmed the slippery slope. Evidence of slippage had already emerged in the 2011 local elections, and the 2014 national and provincial elections continued the trend. The ANC prevailed in Gauteng, but it received a chilling message. Work had to be done to stop the bleeding. Could the ANC change in the post-election period to show its willingness to listen to voters on issues of poor governance and representation, compromised leadership and policy issues touching the people's pockets and stomachs?

Type
Chapter
Information
Dominance and Decline
The ANC in the time of Zuma
, pp. 163 - 191
Publisher: Wits University Press
Print publication year: 2015

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