So does the weather really matter? Clearly, extreme weather events and longer term climatic change have both exerted substantial influences on economic and social history and played a fateful role in other aspects of history. But what has not been established is that they have altered the mainsprings of history. These have been energised by the vast forces of population growth, political and cultural developments, industrial advance and scientific and technological progress. But, whenever the social structures have become overextended, adverse weather has often been the catalyst of breakdown and failure.

As for things getting worse, there is little evidence that the weather is becoming more extreme. In spite of Tom Karl's analysis that certain types of extremes in the USA, which might be symptomatic of the greenhouse effect, appear to have become more prevalent since the mid-1970s (see Section 5.4), the overall picture presented both in the many time series in this book and in the 1995 IPCC report is of no significant change.

If correct, these low-key conclusions lead naturally to the question – what is all the fuss about? Is it simply that in a more media-orientated society we are being led to believe that every major snowstorm is the ‘Blizzard of the Century’ and every drought is the end of civilisation as we know it, or are there more profound issues to address? Whatever the temptation to embellish current events, it would be foolish to dismiss it all as media hype.