Preceding chapters have set out the theory behind the thermostatic model, and our expectations of how public feedback and policy representation will vary across domains and political institutions. This is the first of four chapters that test these hypotheses.

We begin by looking at public responsiveness to policy change – the “feedback” critical to a functioning democracy. Across the next few chapters, our analyses proceed in four stages, corresponding roughly to these questions: (1) Does the public respond to policy change? (2) To what do they respond? (3) When do they respond? and (4) Who responds? The first question is of course relatively clear – we want to know whether the thermostatic model works, whether policy feeds back (negatively) on public opinion. The subsequent questions probe the issue of public responsiveness. In Chapter 6, we explore the difference in feedback to legislative action (appropriations) versus actual spending (outlays); we also examine there the timing of responsiveness – the point in the fiscal year when the public learns about changes in policy. We examine responsiveness further still in Chapter 8, which considers whether certain groups respond more than others.

We first want to know, Does the public respond? The chapter begins with a brief review of our model of public responsiveness. We then present models of defense spending alongside combined social spending, first in the United States and then across our three countries. These models set the stage for subsequent analyses.