Bilateral relationships are the elemental building blocks of international relations. In most cases, they are influenced by third-party interactions but they are not determined by them. However, there are some situations that are essentially multilateral. A good example would be the U.S.-Taiwan-PRC triangle from 1950 to 2008. The reunification of Italy in the nineteenth century, the Risorgimento, presents a particularly complex case of multiple actors inside and outside of Italy. Moreover, there are many multilateral asymmetric strategic situations in which an actor faces the prospect of significant simultaneous responses even if the primary focus of action is bilateral. Generally speaking, every modern bilateral relationship is influenced by regional and global contexts.

Bilateral relations are not easy to predict, but multilateral interactions add a level of complexity that raises the control of uncertainty to a primary concern. In a bilateral context an outcome is indeterminate to the extent that choice is involved in the interaction, and prediction is further complicated by misperception. But a bilateral interaction is sequential, and it involves a minimum number of actors. A multilateral relationship adds the problem of simultaneous interaction with more than one partner and the complication of relationships that are conditional on other parties. The leap in complexity in multilateral relations transforms the context of decision making, and it is complicated further by asymmetry. For our purposes of constructing a model of asymmetric relationships, it is important to distinguish between the effects of multilateral uncertainty on the calculus of each state and the problem of asymmetry within regions, the subject of the next chapter. Here we deal with the logic of interrelated effects; Chapter 4 discusses located systems of interaction.

This chapter discusses multilateral asymmetric relationships and the challenge of reducing the uncertainty of simultaneous interactions. We begin by considering triangular relations and how their patterns are affected by asymmetry. We then consider unilateral modes of uncertainty reduction, including buffering, hedging, and balancing. We conclude with the consideration of patterns of international alignment and consider how they stabilize the framework of expectations in bilateral relationships.

MULTILATERAL INTERACTIONS, CHAOS, AND UNCERTAINTY

Even in physics, simultaneity of interaction transforms uncertainty. If the momentum of two interacting bodies is known – for instance, the gravitational interaction of the earth and the sun – then their resulting trajectories can be predicted accurately.