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9 - Data Assimilation of Volcanic Clouds: Recent Advances and Implications on Operational Forecasts

from Part II - ‘Fluid’ Earth Applications: From the Surface to the Space

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 June 2023

By
Arnau Folch  and
Leonardo Mingari
Edited by
Alik Ismail-Zadeh ,
Fabio Castelli ,
Dylan Jones  and
Sabrina Sanchez
Alik Ismail-Zadeh
Affiliation:
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany
Fabio Castelli
Affiliation:
Università degli Studi, Florence
Dylan Jones
Affiliation:
University of Toronto
Sabrina Sanchez
Affiliation:
Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Germany
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Summary

Abstract: Operational forecasts of volcanic clouds are a key decision-making component for civil protection agencies and aviation authorities during the occurrence of volcanic crises. Quantitative operational forecasts are challenging due to the large uncertainties that typically exist on characterising volcanic emissions in real time. Data assimilation, including source term inversion, has long been recognised by the scientific community as a mechanism to reduce quantitative forecast errors. In terms of research, substantial progress has occurred during the last decade following the recommendations from the ash dispersal forecast workshops organised by the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The meetings held in Geneva in 2010–11 in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption identified data assimilation as a research priority. This Chapter reviews the scientific progress and its transfer into operations, which is leveraging a new generation of operational forecast products.

Keywords

data insertionKalman filtermodel inversionoperational forecastparticle filteruncertaintyvolcanic cloud
Type
Chapter
Information
Applications of Data Assimilation and Inverse Problems in the Earth Sciences , pp. 144 - 156
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2023

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