‘What could modelling possibly tell me about control? All I have to do is go in and blow them away.’ Such a view is concise and clear but short-sighted. Modelling can assist with planning of control. For example, a mathematical model of the population dynamics of the cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus) in sugarcane crops in Florida was used to evaluate the effects of different timings of rodenticide applications on cotton rat abundance (Montague et al., 1990). It was concluded that a single application at least eight months after harvest or double applications at eight and ten months after harvest would be more effective in reducing future damage than earlier rodenticide treatment. The modelling suggests a control action that can be tested empirically.

This chapter is about modelling the processes of control in vertebrate pest control. These models describe patterns and processes in the methods, rather than just the effects of the methods. The models are often based on analogy with ecological processes such as predator–prey and plant–herbivore relationships. The results can be of strategic use in planning control.

The literature emphasises modelling the effects of pest control rather than modelling the effects of damage control. That will be reflected in section 6.1 in the theory and case studies examined; however, I suggest it is not the most efficient or economic approach in vertebrate pest control. There is a need for more modelling of damage control.